DETROIT – There’s no way to analyze the early parts of an MLB season without overreacting, unless you’re just telling people not to overreact.
But that’s no fun! So let’s spend some time completely overreacting to the first Detroit Tigers series of the season.
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Alex Lange
- Worry level: 6/10.
I wasn’t worried about Lange when we did our roundup in the middle of spring training, but he’s clearly starting the season on thin ice.
As the team’s primary closer last season, Lange racked up 26 saves while pitching to a 3.68 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He struck out 79 batters in 66 innings, but that also came with 45 walks.
Coming into this season, it felt like Lange could make a move into the elite tier of closers if he just threw strikes. His swing-and-miss metrics are top-notch, he keeps the ball on the ground, and he induces weak contact.
If you could just ignore the walk rate, Lange would basically be the perfect reliever. Sadly, you cannot ignore the walk rate.
That was abundantly clear on Saturday, when Lange came into the game and immediately walked the No. 9 hitter on four pitches. He ultimately walked three of the four batters he faced.
He got four whiffs on his secondary pitches, but Lange had absolutely no idea where the ball was going. A.J. Hinch had to replace him with Will Vest, who got out of the jam.
There’s no question Lange has lost his job as the closer. It seems like that happened before Opening Day, because Jason Foley converted the first two save opportunities.
But if Lange can’t throw strikes, his roster spot might not even be safe.
Beau Brieske is a very deserving bullpen candidate in Triple-A, and considering how much the Tigers organization prioritizes strike-throwing, Lange’s leash might not be very long.
Javier Baez
- Worry level: 10/10.
Baez was already at a 10 last month, and there was nothing in the opening series to assuage those concerns.
While batting in the No. 8 slot for all three games, Baez chased 56% of the pitches that were thrown out of the strike zone in his 13 at-bats. He struck out four times, didn’t draw a walk, and hit two singles (both over 100 mph exit velocity).
When you take the first series of the season and combine it with the spring and everything Baez has done since joining the Tigers, it’s pretty clear that there’s no offensive resurgence on the horizon.
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The common theme between Lange and Baez is that they’re showing the same warts we saw last season. It doesn’t take a large sample size to worry about Lange’s strike-throwing because he couldn’t throw strikes last season. Likewise, Baez is chasing too many pitches out of the zone and making unproductive outs.
Baez ripped a 102.9 mph single and stole second base to set up the only run of the game during the Tigers’ Opening Day victory. He can clearly still show flashes of brilliance. But it doesn’t feel like he’ll ever get back to being a regularly productive offensive player.
Kenta Maeda
- Worry level: 2/10.
Saturday was a very ugly Tigers debut for Maeda. He allowed six runs in 3.1 innings and had no command of his off-speed pitches. That’s a bad recipe for a starter who tops out around 90 mph with his fastball.
Maeda got burned three times -- twice by Luis Robert -- on spinners in the center of the plate. He couldn’t get his splitter down, and the White Sox had no problem knocking him around.
But I’m not worried. The only reason Maeda’s a 2/10 is because he’s about to turn 36 years old. That comes with some inherent risk, especially for someone who’s seen a dip in velocity.
Saturday was Maeda’s first start of the season, and it was also a bit of a cold, dreary day in Chicago. Someone with his track record definitely deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Colt Keith
- Worry level: 1/10.
Should you be worried about Keith getting off to a slow start this season? Absolutely, because he’s a 22-year-old who has never faced MLB pitching.
But there was nothing this weekend to dampen the enthusiasm about Keith’s long-term production.
He only had a measly infield single in 11 at-bats, but he also drew two walks and only struck out twice.
A prospect profile doesn’t get much safer than the power and plate discipline combo the Tigers have in Keith. It’s why they were willing to offer a long extension before his debut.
The important thing for Keith early in the season is that he doesn’t look overmatched. So far, he does not.
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Riley Greene
- Worry level: 2/10.
If Greene isn’t an All-Star this season, it will likely be because of strikeouts or ground balls.
The strikeout rate has been a bit too high for Greene early in his MLB career, and he’s had some trouble getting the ball in the air.
That was the case again this weekend, as Greene struck out four times in 12 at-bats and hit several grounders to the right side. But at the same time, he smashed an opposite-field home run and played tremendous defense.
It’s fair to wonder if Greene will ever truly become a star, but he’s clearly a deserving middle-of-the-order bat.
Spencer Torkelson
- Worry level: 3/10.
Why is Torkelson hitting so many popups? The trend started in spring training and carried over into the first series of the regular season.
Torkelson’s popup problem was particularly prevalent on Saturday, when he hit weak fly balls to shortstop, first base, and shortstop across five at-bats. Popups are automatic outs -- they’re basically the same as strikeouts in terms of expected production.
The Tigers are counting on Torkelson to build upon his 31-homer 2023 season, but it doesn’t seem like he’s seeing the ball very well to begin the year. It’s a strange trend for a player who’s typically posted elite batted ball metrics even during slumps.
I’m not worried about Torkelson, but this is an early reminder that we shouldn’t just assume he’ll hit 30 homers annually.