For the first 11 weeks of the season, the Michigan Wolverines controlled their own destiny on the road to the College Football Playoff. They took care of business in their first nine games, stumbled in a road game against Iowa and came within inches of clinching a Big Ten East Division title.
But when Curtis Samuel sprinted across the goal line Saturday to send Michigan back to Ann Arbor with a loss, the Wolverines' hopes for a playoff berth went from strong to slim.
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Slim, but not none.
Michigan's regular season is over. The Wolverines will not compete in the Big Ten title game, so their record sits firmly at 10-2. They are likely to fall to No. 5 in Tuesday's College Football Playoff rankings, with several teams above and below them still in the mix.
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What has to happen to land Michigan in the committee's final four?
Washington goes down
The most important game for Michigan will take place in Santa Clara, California. Washington is one of the four Power 5 teams in the country with fewer losses than Michigan, giving it a clear path to the playoff if it wins a conference title.
Washington's opponent happens to be Colorado, a team Michigan knocked off by 17 points early in the season. With a win, Washington will be in the field of four, but with a loss, the Huskies completely fall out of the mix.
Obviously, a Pac-12 champion Colorado team would also be a major player in the discussion, especially with wins over Washington, Utah and Washington State the last three weeks. The injury to starting quarterback Sefo Liufau -- which contributed to both of Colorado's losses -- could also come into consideration now that he's back leading one of the top teams in the country.
But Michigan has two trump cards Colorado lacks: A victory in the head-to-head meeting and three wins over the committee's top 10 teams. Colorado's victory over Washington would end up being its most impressive resume booster, but beyond that, wins over Stanford, Washington State and Utah don't quite stack up against wins over the Pac-12 champion and the two teams battling for a Big Ten title.
Penn State over Wisconsin?
Speaking of the Big Ten title, Michigan also has rooting interest in that game. Even though the Wolverines beat both Wisconsin and Penn State this season, it would easier for the committee to justify taking Michigan over a Big Ten champion Penn State team over a Big Ten champion Wisconsin team.
Not only did Michigan dismantle Penn State by 39 points in the Big House, it also played a much tougher conference schedule than the Nittany Lions. Penn State won the Big Ten East Division partly by circumstance, having avoided playing Wisconsin and playing Iowa at home. Michigan and Ohio State both had to play Wisconsin during the regular season, and Michigan traveled to Iowa while Ohio State hosted Nebraska.
The committee could see that Penn State only played in the conference title game because it avoided the top two teams in the West during the regular season. Even if Penn State knocks off Wisconsin, that's something Michigan and Ohio State have already done.
Is it possible that a Big Ten champion Penn State would make the playoff over Michigan? Absolutely. But there are also several arguments that favor Michigan in that debate.
If Wisconsin wins, and finishes with its only losses coming to Michigan and Ohio State by a combined 14 points, the Badgers might jump Michigan, even though they would have finished fourth in the Big Ten East Division this year.
Other possible impacts
Another game to keep an eye on is the ACC title game, which will put Clemson up against Virginia Tech. Clemson is a lock for a playoff bid with a win in that game, and although it's extremely unlikely, Virginia Tech could knock the ACC out of the playoff with an upset win.
Clemson has played with fire all season long, and a loss to Virginia Tech would knock it out of contention.
The only other game that could potentially impact Michigan is Bedlam -- the yearly battle between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. With both teams sitting at 9-2 and in the playoff's top 10, the winner would have an outside chance of getting into the discussion.
Michigan would benefit from Oklahoma State winning in Bedlam, primarily because the Cowboys already have two awful losses this season. Even if the committee doesn't see the controversial ending to the Central Michigan game (which Oklahoma State lost due to an officiating error) as a loss for OSU, their best wins are nowhere near as strong as Michigan's.
On the other hand, Oklahoma has no business in the discussion even with a win. The Sooner lost to Ohio State at home by 21 points, while Michigan played a double overtime game in Columbus. If that isn't enough evidence, Oklahoma would finish the season with no top 10 wins and a loss to a Houston team that completely fell apart in the second half.
Michigan should stay ahead of the winner in Bedlam, but it would completely eliminate the Big 12 if Oklahoma loses at home.
Michigan would be feeling extremely comfortable if Clemson and Washington both lost Saturday, but that's obviously very unlikely. With Alabama and Ohio State already locking up two spots, and Clemson likely to clinch a third Saturday, there are a handful of potential two-loss teams battling to play Alabama in the semifinal.
Colorado has been helping Michigan's resume all season, and if the Buffaloes win one more game, Michigan could find itself on the right side of the bubble.
The Wolverines didn't take care of business in Columbus, so now they need help -- but they aren't dead yet.