DETROIT – First, the good news: The Detroit Tigers won't finish in last place in the American League Central Division in 2015.
Now, the bad news: The Tigers will finish in fourth place and will not make the playoffs.
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Of course, some Tigers fans will dismiss this as an attempt to be negative and ruin the season before it even starts on Monday at 1:05 p.m. against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park.
It's not. This prediction is coming from the same columnist who picked the Kansas City Royals to make it to the World Series in 2014 (many pooh-poohed that prediction).
The Tigers - who were swept in the playoffs in 2014 - simply have too many questions about their roster to win the division again and make it to the postseason for a fifth straight season.
This isn't the same team, or the same division, in fact, that the Tigers have owned. The Tigers have won the last four division titles. That reign is over, though.
Things only got worse for the Tigers on Wednesday when Justin Verlander (triceps) was placed on the 15-day disabled list for the first time in his career.
Reliever Bruce Rondon - who has had an injury-plagued career thus far - was also placed on the DL with tendinitis in his right shoulder.
And it's the pitching that is the biggest problem on this 2015 team.
Starting Rotation: The Tigers used to have the best rotation. Not just in the division, but the AL.
It's just not the case anymore.
The loss of Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello will really hurt. Both won a lot of games the last few seasons.
Sure, the Tigers still have an ace in David Price, who will start on Opening Day. But even before Verlander was placed on the DL, there were so many questions about the former ace.
Verlander was hit hard in the spring. It comes on the heels of a lousy 2014 when his ERA was a chubby 4.54 and he averaged less than seven strikeouts per nine innings for the first time in his stellar career.
Anibal Sanchez is coming back from injury and has trouble staying healthy. Then the two replacement starters for Scherzer and Porcello are Shane Greene (five wins with the Yankees in '14) and Alfredo Simon (15 wins with the Reds last season). Will they fill the void? No one is sure yet.
The Bullpen: The biggest problem is the bullpen - again. The meltdown by the 'pen in the playoffs against Baltimore shouldn't have been a surprise. The Tigers had the fourth-worst bullpen (4.29 ERA) in MLB.
To make matters worse, GM Dave Dombrowski didn't address the problem and basically brought back the same Motley Crew with the same issues, starting with closer Joe Nathan. He was disappointing a year ago and unimpressive in the spring.
Then there's Joba Chamberlain, who was hit like a rag doll in spring training.
And another bad sign: Rondon was supposed to be a solution. He had a bad spring, too. Now, he's injured - again.
The Lineup: The strength of this team will be the offense.
Despite the fact that Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are both coming off injuries and off-season surgery, you know what you're going to get and it's normally good.
J.D. Martinez had a breakout 2014 and he will be key as teams make an adjustment to him.
Another key is Alex Avila, who struggled a year ago. The Tigers need Avila to get more hits and display more power as well.
The Defense: The Tigers should be better at catching the ball in 2015.
Last season, the defense was bad when they ranked near the bottom. The return of shortstop Jose Iglesias and his tremendous glove will help big time.
So will newcomers Yoenis Cespedes and Anthony Gose. Both will improve play in the outfield.
Third baseman Nick Castellanos must improve. He graded out as one of worst at his position a year ago.
The Manager: Brad Ausmus will need to improve as well. He earned a "C" in his rookie season. He will have to be better at handling the bullpen. If not, it could be a bigger disaster.
The Prediction: The Tigers struggle and be just a .500 ball club at 81-81. The White Sox win the division and the Royals win a wild card.