As of 3:10 p.m., showers with some briefly heavy downpours are scattered about southeast Michigan.
Development has been slow. There hasn’t even been any lightning yet. That’s the paradox: If these cells can grow, they’ll eventually tap into some 50 mph wind aloft, which can then cause stronger wind gusts at the surface.
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The problem is that, while the atmosphere is very unstable from the surface up to around 4,000 feet, above that, it’s much less unstable. Surface air parcels are easy to lift to that 4,000-foot level but then slow down after that.
Since we need explosive development to extend higher up into the atmosphere for truly severe storms, the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal severe storm risk over southeast Michigan Thursday afternoon.
Twice this week we’ve seen tornado outbreaks in marginal risk areas with no tornado threat indicated. I’m not saying that we’ll get a tornado outbreak Thursday afternoon, I’m saying that you should respect all severe weather risks, even the lowest-end risk.
A marginal risk doesn’t mean there's no chance of severe storms. It means there's a low coverage of these storms should they develop. There’s an enormous difference in having no chance at all.
Once any showers and storms clear the area in the afternoon and early this evening, expect clearing skies overnight, with lows back into the low- to mid-60s -- that’s 16-18 degrees Celsius for our Canadian friends. Winds will be west at 4 to 7 mph.
Friday will be mostly sunny overall. There could be some areas of cirrus clouds drifting through from time to time. Highs will be in the mid-80s (30 degrees Celsius). Southwest winds will blow at 5 to 9 mph. Friday’s sunrise is at 6:53 a.m., and Friday’s sunset is at 8:16 p.m.
It will be mostly clear Friday night, with lows in the mid-60s (18 degrees Celsius).
There will be increasing clouds on Saturday, with highs in the mid-80s (29 degrees Celsius).
There’s a chance for some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night, with lows in the upper 60s (20 degrees Celsius).
Sunday’s forecast is still a bit of a challenge, but Thursday's models seem to agree that the best chance to see a shower or thunderstorm is in the morning, with the possibility for a dry afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-80s (29 degrees Celsius).
It will become mostly clear Sunday night, with lows in the mid-60s (18 degrees Celsius).
Next week is looking mostly dry right now, with only a Tuesday night cold front -- which doesn’t look very impressive -- being something to watch. Let’s go for a dry forecast from Monday through the weekend, with highs generally in the low- to mid-80s (27-30 degrees Celsius), and overnight lows in the low- to mid-60s (16-18 degrees Celsius).