Big spirals on satellite and radar images generally signify a well-developed upper level storm system, and today’s image at the top of the article sure doesn’t lie.
You can easily see the upper level low that will impact our weather for the next two days, and there’s something very important to understand about its dynamics: today into Friday, this low is cut off from the main steering winds aloft, so it’s just going to slowly meander during this period.
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We call this a “cut off low.” By Saturday, the low will open up and just become an upper level trough, which will absorb it into the main steering winds aloft, and move it along much quicker than today into Friday.
So, with all this in mind, here’s how we see the forecast shaping up:
Tonight will feature increasing clouds, but it’ll be dry and pleasant for our evening plans. Perhaps by late tonight some of us in the far south may get a shower. Lows will range from the low-to-mid 60s (17 degrees Celsius) south, to the mid 50s (13 degrees Celsius) north in the Thumb. Wind should blow from the northeast at 8 to 12 mph.
Friday
Clouds continue to thicken on Friday (TGIF!), with shower chances increasing through the day. It’s important to remember that our weather will be coming from south to north, so those of us in the south have shower chances all day (although there may be some breaks in the rain…hopefully we get some of those breaks for the start of GM River Days on the riverfront).
Those of us in the central part of the area may not see a shower until midday, and those of us in the Thumb may hold off the showers until late afternoon. In fact, the Thumb could have partial sunshine for a good part of the day. Highs across the area should generally average in the low 70s (21 to 22 degrees Celsius), but cooler close to Lakes Huron and Erie.
By the way, if you’re wondering why temperatures won’t vary much tomorrow, it’s because the start of the day will be much warmer in the south than in the north: more clouds and rain will limit the temperature rise in the south while temps rise more in the north due to keeping some sunshine. Wind will blow from the east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph, and even a little breezier near the Great Lakes.
Friday’s sunrise is at 5:57 a.m., and Friday’s sunset is at 9:13 p.m.
Showers and possibly even a thunderstorm are likely Friday night, with lows in the mid 60s (18 degrees Celsius).
The Weekend
The Friday night showers and thunderstorms will continue into early Saturday morning, and then there potentially could be a period where the activity diminishes to just scattered showers through early afternoon…perhaps an opportunity to get outside for a bit.
Some hazy sun may even develop and, if it does, then temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees (26 to 27 degrees Celsius), and we’ll pop up some mid to late afternoon thunderstorms. The bottom line on Saturday is to check the radar page often on our free Local4Casters app to keep ahead of the weather.
Showers and thunderstorms diminish Saturday evening, and the overnight period should be quiet and dry, although some fog could develop. Lows in the mid 60s (18 degrees Celsius).
A cold front will cross the area on Sunday, with a period of showers and possible thunderstorms ahead of it. This won’t be an all-day rain…just a band of rain as the front approaches, and the computer models disagree on the front’s timing.
For example, some models start the day with the front near Houghton Lake, while others start the day with it near Flint…that’s a big difference. Hopefully, tomorrow’s high-resolution models will give us some useful guidance on this, and we’ll certainly keep you posted. Highs Sunday should once again be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees (26-27 degrees Celsius).
Ford Fireworks
The weather could not be more perfect for Monday’s Ford Fireworks…North America’s biggest pyrotechnical display. High pressure settling right over Michigan will give us a sunny day with pleasant temperatures and comfortable humidity.
Highs should reach the upper 70s to near 80 degrees (26-27 degrees Celsius), with temperatures obviously falling but remaining comfortable through the evening. In fact, the wind should go dead calm by fireworks time. Remember that Local 4 is the ONLY station in Detroit giving you complete live coverage from start to finish…you can watch us on-air, or on ClickOnDetroit.com if you aren’t in the area.
The Rest of Next Week
Expect another great summer day on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 80s (29 degrees Celsius).
The next front crosses the area Wednesday, with some showers and thunderstorms possible by afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s (30 degrees Celsius). This front should be east of us by late Wednesday night, which means we should have a partly cloudy day on Thursday, but getting hot with highs near 90 degrees (32 degrees Celsius), and this heat looks to hang around at least into the weekend.