ANN ARBOR, Mich. – This year’s Michigan football schedule looks a lot like last season’s, when the team only had a handful of true tests on paper.
In 2022, everyone pointed to the Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State games as the ones that would define Michigan’s season. The Wolverines managed to win all three handily en route to a 12-0 record.
Can they do the same in 2023, when expectations are even higher? It’s not going to be easy, even though the schedule will be mocked by some.
Michigan has two games against teams ranked in the preseason top 10, and several tricky road tests against the middle of the tier of the Big Ten.
Here’s a ranking of every game on the schedule:
12. UNLV
- Game details: 3:30 p.m. Sept. 9 in Ann Arbor
- Record last season: 5-7
UNLV has a returning quarterback who threw for 1,898 yards and 10 touchdowns last season in Doug Brumfield, but 1,000-yard rusher Aidan Robbins transferred to to BYU.
The Rebels lost six of their last seven games and finished with a losing record in the Mountain West, so a win at Michigan Stadium would be one of the biggest upsets of the college football season.
11. Bowling Green
- Game details: 7:30 p.m. Sept. 16 in Ann Arbor
- Record last season: 6-7
After starting last season with a 2-4 record, Bowling Green ripped off four wins in six weeks to qualify for a bowl game, including a shocking win at Toledo as a 15-point underdog.
The Falcons are led by Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak, who threw the ball 49 times against Michigan last year for just 203 yards. Bazelak has put up more than 2,000 passing yards each of the last three seasons at Missouri and Indiana, but he’s facing an uphill battle at the Big House.
10. East Carolina
- Game details: Noon Sept. 2 in Ann Arbor
- Record last season: 8-5
Between 2022 and 2023, East Carolina will probably be Michigan’s toughest non-conference opponent. The Pirates were three plays away from finishing 10-2 last season after a one-point loss to No. 13 North Carolina State, a double overtime loss to Navy, and a two-point loss on a late field goal at Cincinnati.
East Carolina went into the Birmingham Bowl against Grayson McCall and Coastal Carolina and put up 53 points to cap off a successful season.
Here’s the problem: veteran quarterback Holton Ahlers is in the NFL, as is running back Keaton Mitchell, who rushed for 1,452 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2022.
Last season, East Carolina had a veteran team that put up a ton of points and didn’t make mistakes. But it’s tough to replace a five-year starter at quarterback, a 1,400-yard rusher, and two 1,000-yard receivers all at once.
The first game of the season is always dangerous, especially for a team with massive expectations facing a team with nothing to lose. But Michigan won’t take East Carolina lightly, and that should be enough to avoid disaster.
9. Indiana
- Game details: Oct. 14 in Ann Arbor
- Record last season: 4-8
Tom Allen led Indiana to back-to-back winning seasons in 2019 and 2020 and began 2021 ranked No. 17 in the AP poll. But it’s been all downhill since then.
Indiana went 2-10 in 2021 and lost eight of nine games after starting 3-0 last season. The Hoosiers played Michigan tough for the first half in Bloomington, but the Wolverines scored 21 unanswered points after the break to win easily.
Allen added 23 players from the transfer portal, including quarterback Tayven Jackson, so he’s hoping for a fresh start. Nobody knows what a team will look like after that much turnover, but Indiana fans are probably happy to embrace change after the last two seasons.
8. Rutgers
- Game details: Noon Sept. 23 in Ann Arbor
- Record last season: 4-8
Rutgers is in a very similar situation as Indiana. After proving to be much more competitive the previous two seasons under Greg Schiano, the Scarlett Knights took a step back in 2022, starting 3-0 but losing eight of the final nine games.
Michigan was on the ropes for a half at Rutgers, trailing 17-14. But the Wolverines exploded for five touchdowns and 38 unanswered points after the break, so hardly anyone even remembers the first half.
Rutgers should have a solid defense, led by one-time Michigan signee Aaron Lewis, but it has to find a quarterback who can lead a competent offense.
This will be Jim Harbaugh’s first game back from suspension, so Michigan should be fired up in front of a huge crowd. It’s a tough spot for Rutgers.
7. Purdue
- Game details: Nov. 4 in Ann Arbor
- Record last season: 8-6
Last season was a resounding success for Purdue. It beat Minnesota, Nebraska, and Illinois to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and came a couple of plays away from beating Penn State and Syracuse to win double-digit games.
But it’s been an offseason of change for the program, which has been on an upward swing since Jeff Brohm arrived in 2017. Brohm is at Louisville now, and Purdue replaced him with Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters.
Walters was excellent at Illinois last season, coaching one of the best defenses in the nation and developing multiple NFL draft picks. But he’ll have to replace Aidan O’Connell, who threw 50 touchdown passes over the past two seasons.
Bringing in Graham Harrell as offensive coordinator and Hudson Card as quarterback seems like a good start. Harrell has long been viewed as a top offensive mind, and Card completed 69.4% of his pass attempts for an average of 8.6 yards while filling in for Quinn Ewers at Texas last season.
Purdue should also be solid on defense, if Walters’ work at Illinois is any indication. Keep an eye on the secondary -- that was his calling card last season.
6. Nebraska
- Game details: Noon Sept. 30 in Lincoln
- Record last season: 4-8
Last season was a mess for Nebraska, but now Matt Rhule is at the helm to turn things around. The Cornhuskers haven’t had a winning season since 2016, so they brought in a coach who has proven he can win at the Power Five level.
Former Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims and returning running back Anthony Grant give Nebraska some firepower on offense, while returning starters should make the defense serviceable at the back end.
The last time Michigan went to Lincoln, it took a late miracle to come out with a win, and even though this year’s game is scheduled to kick off at noon, that atmosphere is always a factor.
5. Michigan State
- Game details: Oct. 21 in East Lansing
- Record last season: 5-7
The third season of the Mel Tucker era was a bit of a letdown, as Michigan State dropped its final two games to miss out on bowl eligibility one year after putting up 11 wins.
Now, the Spartans will break in a new starting quarterback, and he’ll have Maliq Carr and Jalen Berger as his top weapons, along with a strong offensive line.
The Michigan State teams that won Big Ten titles under Mark Dantonio were known for their defense, but the Spartans have been a mess on that side of the ball the past few years. Jacoby Windmon and Cal Haladay lead a strong linebacking group, but it’s the secondary that needs to make major improvements.
4. Maryland
- Game details: Nov. 18 in College Park
- Record last season: 8-5
Taulia Tagovailoa is back for a fourth season as Maryland’s starting quarterback, and he has once last chance to take down Michigan.
He came close last year, when the Terrapins came into Ann Arbor and lost by a touchdown. Michigan out-gained Maryland by more than 60 yards, but still would have lost if not for three Terrapin turnovers.
Tagovailoa has thrown for almost 7,000 yards over the past two seasons combined, and Roman Hemby is a solid running back. The question is whether Maryland can stop a Michigan team that’s scored 34 or more points in each of the last six meetings.
3. Minnesota
- Game details: Oct. 7 in Minneapolis
- Record last season: 9-4
In the last three non-COVID seasons, Minnesota has gone a combined 29-10, but it still doesn’t feel like P.J. Fleck gets enough credit.
Veteran quarterback Tanner Morgan and star running back Mohamed Ibrahim are both gone, but the Golden Gophers still have one of the best receiver rooms in the Big Ten, a preseason All-American tight end, and a Rimmington Award finalist.
Minnesota quietly had one of the nation’s top defenses last season, but it’ll have to replace two defensive backs who moved on to the NFL. Even though there are several key pieces to replace on both sides of the ball, Fleck has made the Gophers one of the most consistent teams in the West, and they’re among the favorites to win the division this year.
2. Penn State
- Game details: Nov. 11 in State College
- Record last season: 11-2
Everyone stopped talking about Penn State last season after blowout losses to Michigan and Ohio State in October, but the Nittany Lions went on to win 11 games and beat Pac-12 champion Utah in the Rose Bowl.
When Michigan finally broke its 18-year Big Ten title drought in 2021, the win at Penn State felt like a turning point. The Wolverines faced a deficit late in the fourth quarter in a hostile road environment and found a way to win. If they hadn’t, they wouldn’t have gone to the College Football Playoff.
This year, playing at Penn State might be even tougher. Although Sean Clifford was a reliable veteran, Drew Allar was a top-five quarterback recruit in the 2022 class and might be even better.
Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen make up one of the best running back duos in the country, and they’ll be running behind an experienced offensive line.
On defense, Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac cause havoc in the backfield, and Kalen King is a legitimate No. 1 cornerback. The question is whether Penn State can hold up on the interior, where Michigan eviscerated an undersized group of tackles to the tune of 418 rushing yards in 2022.
Penn State is a consensus preseason top 10 team and has its eyes on a playoff berth. It helps Michigan that the game is at noon, but playing in Happy Valley is always dangerous.
1. Ohio State
- Game details: Noon Nov. 25 in Ann Arbor
- Record last season: 11-2
It doesn’t matter that Michigan has knocked off Ohio State two years in a row or that this year’s game is in Ann Arbor. There’s no doubt Ohio State will be the toughest test once again in 2023.
Every few years, when Ohio State sends a superstar quarterback to the NFL, the college football world wonders if the Buckeyes will finally take a step back at the position. But it never happens. Since Braxton Miller won the starting job in 2012, Ohio State has gone from Miller to J.T. Barrett to Cardale Jones to Dwayne Haskins to Justin Fields to C.J. Stroud -- a ridiculously star-studded list.
Whoever wins this year’s job will have the luxury of throwing to the best receiver in the country in Marvin Harrison Jr., as well as Emeka Egbuka, Julian Fleming, and whoever else emerges on the depth chart.
Michigan has shredded Ohio State’s defense the past two seasons -- first bullying the Buckeyes in the trenches in 2021 and then blowing them away through the air in 2022. No matter what the game plan is this year, expect Ohio State to be better prepared.
The Michigan-Ohio State game has determined the Big Ten East Division each of the past two seasons, and there’s a good chance that will be the case again. A lot will happen between now and Nov. 25, but we all know that date is already circled for both programs.
