Arguing about Michigan football predictions: Final record, MSU at night, best players, scariest game

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – It’s time for one of our favorite preseason Michigan football traditions here in the newsroom: Brandon and I arguing about everything!

If you’ll remember, last season, I was a nice guy and let Brandon win a few of the arguments. He was right about the team going undefeated, and J.J. McCarthy winning the starting quarterback job, and -- you know what enough about all that. This year, I’m not taking it easy.

The preseason Michigan hype hasn’t been this intense since... ever? The Wolverines are No. 2 in both major polls and widely expected to return to a third straight College Football Playoff. I know Brandon probably thinks Michigan will go 15-0 with 15 shutouts and five Heisman Trophy finalists, but I’ll try to keep it real for everybody.

So let’s step into the ring and duke it out on topics like Michigan State, best players, and 2023 predictions.

How worried should fans be about the Michigan State game?

Derick: Very worried -- I’ve learned my lesson.

This one’s easy. I mean, have you watched the last several games in East Lansing?

I made a vow in 2020 to never underestimate Michigan State again, and I’m sticking to it. I was at the negative-48 yards rushing game. I was at the trouble with the snap game. I was at the 2021 game.

It started to feel like MSU was the SpongeBob fish and I was the old man:

Michigan is definitely better than Michigan State, but it’s always after a down year that the Spartans seem to rebound. No, Kenneth Walker isn’t coming back, but with a nighttime kickoff and the hard feelings from last year still brewing, I expect Michigan to get MSU’s best shot once again.

Look, if you swapped the green and white jerseys for Indiana or Northwestern or Illinois, this game wouldn’t even be on my radar. But Michigan State can never be counted out until the scoreboards at Spartan Stadium say zero.

Brandon: Not too worried.

The Michigan State Spartans have been a thorn in the side of the Wolverines over the last few years, especially in East Lansing, where the men in maize blew a double-digit lead while also giving up 15 points and only managing a field goal in the fourth quarter of that embarrassing, shocking 37-33 loss.

The simple fact that a Jim Harbaugh-coached defense let Kenneth Walker III run wild for 197 yards and five touchdowns on just 23 carries was even more of a debacle.

But last year, the Spartans sparked fights inside the Big House after taking a drubbing on the field in a 29-7 defeat.

Although Michigan won the game, I believe the Wolverines have that matchup circled on their calendar, and I can see Harbaugh trying to run up the score for some sweet revenge.

What game are you most worried about?

Brandon: East Carolina

The Wolverines have a few matchups that could be a bit dicey on the 2023 schedule, but I am most worried about the home opener against East Carolina.

Before you thump your nose or scoff at my answer, I am not worried about the Wolverines, as they have top-notch talent in all three phases of the game.

I am worried about the leaders of men who won’t be on the sidelines to call a clean game.

Harbaugh is serving a three-game suspension and offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore will be unavailable as part of the school’s self-imposed penalties for violating the NCAA rules.

I’m pretty sure their game plan is still the same, especially on offense, as it was when the men in maize made an undefeated run to the College Football Playoff. They scored on their first possession 11 times, accounting for eight touchdowns and three field goals.

Michigan had a scoring margin of plus-24.4 points, only behind the Georgia Bulldogs, who were plus-26.4 points last fall.

But like in the school’s past, you can never overlook an opponent. I’m concerned that losing play callers to start the season could put the No. 2 nationally ranked team in a dogfight.

Derick: Ohio State

Brandon, you feeling OK? We could put you in to call plays and Michigan wouldn’t lose to East Carolina. But have you heard about that team on the schedule with 73 five/four-stars on its roster?

Ohio State would shove East Carolina into a proverbial locker, and then shove that locker into an even smaller locker. The Buckeyes are the third most talented team in the country behind Alabama and Georgia, and beating them for a third time in a row will be incredibly difficult.

It’s always hard to beat Penn State on the road, as Michigan learned two years ago when it took a late Erick All touchdown to remain in the playoff hunt. Even though this year’s matchup is a noon kickoff, the atmosphere at Beaver Stadium will be even more toxic and intimidating with Penn State ranked in the top 10.

But Michigan proved it can win on the road last season when it beat both Iowa and Ohio State by double digits. I think Ohio State is always the toughest game on Michigan’s schedule, and this year is no different.

Oh, and Brandon, before we move on, it sounds to me like you should take ECU +35.5.

Who will be Michigan’s best offensive player?

Derick: Blake Corum

It’s Corum! He’s got the juice!

There are so many sexy answers to choose from here -- from Donovan Edwards after what he did in Columbus to McCarthy, who, judging by the offseason hype, is now some combination of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

But I actually narrowed my top choices down to Corum and Zak Zinter, who anchored the best offensive line in the country each of the past two years.

It’s more fun to write about Corum, though, because I can include my favorite Michigan football tweet of all time (embedded below -- but read the rest of my words first!).

Michigan survived Ohio State and the Big Ten Championship Game without Corum, but his absence really showed against TCU. The Wolverines completely went away from their offensive identity and struggled to get those reliable yards in big spots (a tight end pass on the goal line, really?).

Corum rushed for 1,463 yards and scored 19 total touchdowns last season, but I don’t think he’ll get to those totals again in 2023. Edwards is going to have a bigger role, and Michigan is expected to be a bit more balanced with the passing game.

Still, Corum was hands down Michigan’s best player in 2022, and as long as he’s fully healthy, I don’t see why that would change. He’s as steady as they come in short-yardage situations, difficult to bring down in a crowd, and fast enough to break off huge gains.

Michigan is going to run the football, and Corum will lead the team in carries (again, barring injury). That gives him a great chance to be the best offensive player.

Brandon: J.J. McCarthy

With the absence of his head coach for the first three games of the season, the Wolverines will look for their leader to guide them through troubled waters.

The player I am talking about was not named one of the captains, but he is a leader of men with an efficacious, child-like attitude that has been trickling throughout the team, and that is second-year starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

McCarthy won the quarterback job last year due to his athleticism. The man has speed, quickness, agility, and the ability to air out any opponent with his cannon of an arm.

During the fall camp, Harbaugh called McCarthy a once-in-a-generation quarterback who, like the late great Bray Wyatt once said, has got the whole world in his hands.

If the Wolverines want to reach their goals, they’ll need to unlock McCarthy’s full arsenal this season, which would put him not only in talks of winning the Heisman but would have Michigan playing on Jan. 9, 2023, for all of the marbles.

Who will be Michigan’s best defensive player?

Brandon: Mike Sainristil

Michigan’s best player on the defensive side of the ball is wide receiver turned defensive back, Mike Sainristil, who has just been deemed a team captain for his impact on and off the field.

If you need a reminder of how talented he is, go back and look at his play on a 3rd and 3 in the end zone against Ohio State.

The man played wide receiver for three seasons before switching to the nickel last year to show that he can do it on both sides of the ball, as his hand-eye coordination is on another level.

In 14 games, he accounted for 38 solo tackles, 20 assisted tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, and one interception.

He’s more of a lead-by-example type of guy who will show you why he is the most talented defensive player on the team.

Derick: Derrick Moore

I think definitely think Sainristil deserves some love, and my pick would have been Will Johnson if we knew he was fully healthy. Instead, I’m throwing caution to the wind and trusting a fellow Der(r)ick.

Moore was only scratching the surface of his potential last season, picking up eight tackles (seven solo) and a couple of sacks against Indiana and Maryland.

The reason I’m picking a true sophomore over the likes of Kris Jenkins and Jaylen Harrell is that Harbaugh’s staff always seems to develop under-the-radar pass rushers who become stars overnight.

Chase Winovich was the first. Josh Uche, Kwity Paye, David Ojabo, and Mike Morris all blew up after relatively quiet starts to their careers.

Moore’s freshman season reminded me a lot of Aidan Hutchinson’s. Hutchinson made 12 tackles and didn’t record a sack, but he played a lot despite Michigan’s loaded D-line, and he always seemed to be affecting the game.

I’m not saying Moore will become a top-five draft pick, but he had a similar impact last year. And, like Hutchinson, his top-100 prospect status coming out of high school always suggested he could be a difference-maker.

Who will Michigan miss most this season?

Derick: Jake Moody

The people have spoken, and I agree with them!

Earlier this week, we posted a series of polls for Michigan fans, and an overwhelming majority (54% -- nobody else even reached 15%) said the player who will be missed most this season is Moody.

I know, I know, he’s a kicker. But Moody was incredibly valuable the last two seasons. He made 52 of 60 field goal attempts and every single extra point -- it doesn’t get much more reliable than that.

Moody was Michigan’s first-ever Lou Groza Award winner in 2021 and nearly won it again in 2022. He was basically automatic inside of 50 yards and made kicks in some of the most high-leverage spots -- the game-winner against Illinois, a key 49-yarder in Columbus, and a perfect 5-for-5 performance against Michigan State.

D.J. Turner could be a sneaky answer to this question since Michigan is so thin at cornerback, but Harbaugh loved having a reliable kicker, and I think our viewers are spot on that he’ll be sorely missed.

Brandon: Mazi Smith

The Wolverines had a lot of top talent take their games to the next level, which has left some holes in many key positions.

But the guy the team will miss the most is the freakishly talented defensive tackle, Mazi Smith.

Smith was a force to be reckoned with last season, as the first-team All-Big Ten player made 48 tackles, with nearly three going for a loss in his 14 starts.

Yeah, we know about his off-the-field circumstances, but that didn’t stop him from going No. 26 to the Dallas Cowboys in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft.

Smith was bench-pressing 325 pounds over 20 times while also having a vertical leap of 22 inches. He clocked a 4.41 shuttle time during his stay in Ann Arbor.

His uncanny athleticism drew praise from Cowboys superstar Micah Parson, who was jumping for joy when his team made the selection on draft night, as it was reported that he told his defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to take Smith earlier that day through text message.

“Dan knew,” Parsons said. “Look at the text, man. I told you Dan wouldn’t let me down.”

What has to happen for this season to be considered a success?

Brandon: National championship

The Wolverines are ranked No. 2 in the nation for a reason. The national media and the Ann Arbor faithful expect them to run the table again and win their first national championship since Charles Woodson was becoming the first primary defensive player to win the Heisman.

Like the old Right Guard commercials from the 90s used to say, “Anything else is uncivilized” for the men in maize.

They’ve experienced hardship for a long stretch, and now they’ve tasted the sweet nectar of success at the highest level. Anything other than winning it all would be considered a failure.

Derick: Get back to the playoff

I’m so glad I don’t share Brandon’s mindset on this. It sounds like such a frustrating way to go through the season.

I understand the way college football works, and the expectations for Michigan are through the roof. But if this team gets back to the playoff for a third year in a row, I’m not going to call it a failure. No chance.

The talent gap between Michigan and the top programs (Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State) is still wide. As awesome as the Wolverines have been the past two years, I can’t justify going into the season expecting consecutive wins over teams of that caliber -- and that’s what it would take to win it all.

How many games will Michigan win during the regular season?

Derick: 11

I already know Brandon is going to say 12 again, because he hit the bullseye last year. This time, I won’t laugh him out of the newsroom for it.

When people look at Michigan’s schedule, they’ll mock it because they got so used to doing so last year. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it looks a whole lot more respectable by the time November rolls around.

My prediction is that Michigan will lose one of the two big games: at Penn State or against Ohio State. Take your pick, I could see either one happening.

It’s so hard to go undefeated, no matter what’s on the schedule. Only Michigan and Georgia pulled it off last season. Nick Saban is more likely to win a national title at Alabama (six times) than he is to go undefeated during the regular season (four times).

There are plenty of slip-up opportunities, too. Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Maryland are all tough road tests.

I expect the Wolverines to be very good, but I also think they’re more likely to lose twice than to not lose at all. Eleven wins feels like the sweet spot.

Brandon: 12

Michigan should finish the season undefeated once again and three-peat at the Big Ten title game like Michael Jordan and his Chicago Bulls did in the NBA.

The football brand is done with moral victories.

As the great philosopher Sean Carter once said, “Moral victories is for minor league coaches,” and this historic program is far from the minors.

It’s all or nothing for Team 144. They’re opening the season battling adversity, but they’re battle tested. They have all the right pieces in order, and all they’re missing is the big gold football trophy in Schembechler Hall.

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