ANN ARBOR, Mich. – Michigan football’s conference matchups for the next five seasons just dropped all at once, and between the Big Ten growing to 18 teams and the playoff expanding to 12, there’s a lot to digest.
Like, a lot.
It’s so strange to see Michigan regularly playing Oregon, USC, Washington, and UCLA. Someday maybe it won’t, but for now, it’s jarring. Equally strange is seeing some Big Ten staples fall out of the rotation for years at a time.
If you haven’t seen the schedules yet, let me help with two links. Click here to view a breakdown of the 2024 Michigan football schedule, and click here to view a list of all the team’s matchups from 2024-2028.
Here are some of my immediate thoughts:
2024 might be a down year
The Michigan football program has reached a point where it expects to compete for the playoff every season, even when the field is only four teams. But that goal might prove difficult in 2024.
First, let’s address the herd of elephants in the room: Jim Harbaugh, multiple assistant coaches, and several players could leave after this season.
Harbaugh has flirted with the NFL each of the past two off-seasons, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t do so again after this year. The difference: If J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, Dononvan Edwards, Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson, Zak Zinter, Trevor Keegan, Karsen Barnhart, Kris Jenkins, Jaylen Harrell, and others are all moving on to the NFL, he might decide it’s actually time to bounce.
Michigan’s coordinators will also be in high demand -- that’s the price of being a winning program. Sherrone Moore and Jesse Minter will both be linked to head coaching vacancies, and position coaches will receive interest, as well.
That’s not to say Michigan is doomed. The incoming recruiting class is strong, and the transfer portal can help patch some immediate holes. But next year looks like a tough time to be replacing so much talent.
Five of the 12 teams on next year’s Michigan football schedule have very legitimate chances to make the playoff this season. Texas, Oregon, and USC will all come to the Big House, while Michigan visits Ohio State and Washington.
Obviously, those teams will deal with attrition, too. If Quinn Ewers (Texas), Bo Nix (Oregon), Caleb Williams (USC), and Michael Penix (Washington) are all in the NFL, then Michigan won’t be at such a disadvantage. But none of those teams will lose as much talent as the Wolverines beyond the quarterback position.
8 home games vs. 6 home games
When I saw the Big Ten matchups for 2024, my first reaction was, “Hey, eight home games next season!”
But Michigan will pay the piper in 2025, with only six home games. Then it’s back to eight home games in 2026, and six in 2027.
This is a product of Michigan’s home-and-home series with Texas and Oklahoma. The Wolverines host Texas in 2024 and Oklahoma in 2026, while visiting Oklahoma in 2025 and Texas in 2027.
It’s hard to win on the road in college football, so having eight home games is a definite advantage in 2024 and 2026. Conversely, those 2025 and 2027 schedules will be quite a bit tougher, and season ticket holders will have to savor every one of those fall Saturdays in Ann Arbor.
Which schedule is toughest?
It’s always been hard to project deep into the future because the landscape of college football is ever-evolving, but it’s even more futile now with the transfer portal, NIL, and conference realignment.
But looking at the matchups, and considering only the current state of all the programs on Michigan’s upcoming schedules, here’s how I would rank the next five years, from hardest to easiest:
- 2027
- 2024
- 2025
- 2026
- 2028
My guess is Michigan won’t schedule a non-conference game the caliber of Texas and Oklahoma in 2028, and also, there’s a good chance that season goes back to eight home games if all three non-conference matchups are in Ann Arbor. So 2028 was a pretty easy choice for the easiest schedule.
I went with 2027 over 2024 simply because of the road games. Michigan will play six games on the road, as opposed to four, and five of the six could be top-25 matchups -- Texas, Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State, and UCLA.
The 2025 and 2026 schedules were close, but again, the tiebreaker was playing two additional games on the road. Plus, half of Michigan’s home games are very tough in 2025: Ohio State, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Changing our mindset
Right now, we’re programmed to look at these types of schedules and think, “Shoot, Michigan has no chance to get to the playoff.” But gone are the days when two losses eliminates a team from championship contention (after this season).
Part of the reasoning behind conference expansion is the ability for conferences to get multiple teams in the playoff. Any Michigan team that goes 9-3 with these schedules will have a really good chance to make the playoff -- and double-digit wins would guarantee a bid.
Whether you like it or not, that’s the new reality of the sport. Regular-season matchups are going to get a lot more interesting, but there won’t be as many teams finishing 12-0 and 11-1 at the end of the year.
We have to recalibrate what we consider a successful season, starting in 2024. A couple of losses by mid-October won’t doom anyone in the Big Ten or SEC. That will take some time to get used to.
Farewell, Big Ten East foes
Michigan will continue to play Ohio State and Michigan State on a yearly basis, but it’s going to be strange to go multiple years without seen the likes of Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, and Indiana on the schedule.
Michigan has played those four teams every single season since 2014 -- 10 straight years (excluding Maryland in 2020 due to a COVID cancellation). But that’s about to change.
Here’s how many times Michigan will play each Big Ten opponent from 2024-2028:
- Five times: Michigan State, Ohio State.
- Three times: Indiana, Northwestern, Oregon, USC, Washington.
- Two times: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin.
Each of the teams in that third category -- the ones Michigan will only play twice in the next five years -- will come to Ann Arbor once in this time period. Michigan will make one return visit.
Fans who have gotten used to visiting Maryland, Penn State, and/or Rutgers on an every-other-year basis will now only get to do so once in a half-decade. I’m not saying that’s good or bad -- it’s just a reflection of how different the fan experience will be in the near future.
3-time opponents and going to Washington (finally)
Here are the specifics about the five teams Michigan will play three times:
- Indiana: One home, two away.
- Northwestern: Two home, one away.
- Oregon: Two home, one away.
- USC: Two home, one away.
- Washington: One home, two away.
It makes sense that Washington gets to host Michigan not only in 2024, but again in 2028. Michigan had a deal to visit Washington in 2020, but it got canceled due to COVID, and the Huskies acted in good faith by making the return trip to Ann Arbor anyway in 2021.
When the Huskies joined the Big Ten, I knew Michigan wouldn’t be able make that rescheduled 2028 trip to Washington as a non-conference matchup. It makes sense that it’s just being added to the Big Ten slate. Yay, common sense!
Resignation, uncertainty, excitement?
You know that saying, “Don’t mess with a good thing”? That’s kind of how I feel about college football. The game has been so universally beloved that it’s unsettling to see so much change.
But between players getting a bigger piece of the financial pie and the number of zeroes at the end of these conference TV contracts, massive change was inevitable.
I wonder whether there’ll be some sense of, “Hey, good to see you again!” when Michigan and Penn State meet up again in 2026 after two years apart. A mutual nostalgia centered around how the conference used to operate. Or by then will we already be used to the new format?
It wasn’t all that long ago that Penn State’s admission to the Big Ten was itself believed to be an earth-shattering change. And now, to many of us, it feels like that’s just the way it’s always been.
Like with any major change, there will be positives and compromises. It’s weird that Michigan-Oregon will affect the Big Ten standings next year, but also, that day will be really fun from a pure football standpoint.
I’m nervous about how this looks, but also excited. And resigned to the fact that it doesn’t matter how I feel -- this is happening.
For many of us, Michigan football has been one reliable constant in an ever-changing world. But even as the rules, the road trips, and the logos on the opposite sideline change, the magic of college football will persevere.
