ANN ARBOR, Mich. – There’s an obvious three-team race at the top of the Big Ten standings this year, and the first major domino will fall Saturday when Ohio State hosts Penn State.
So... which team should Michigan football fans root for?
If you’re the type of fan who’s convinced the Wolverines are going 12-0, then you’re obviously rooting for Penn State. If Michigan wins out, it doesn’t matter what happens this weekend -- you just want to see the Buckeyes suffer.
But if Michigan slips up in either of those two big games in November -- the trip to Penn State or The Game vs. Ohio State -- this weekend will determine who moves on to the Big Ten Championship Game.
For Michigan to stay alive with a loss, it would simply need the team it eventually loses to head-to-head to be the loser of this weekend’s Penn State-Ohio State game. For example, if you think Michigan will beat Penn State but lose to Ohio State, you should root for Penn State this weekend, and vice versa.
That would trigger a three-way tie, and the three teams would remain tied all the way to the Big Ten’s fifth tiebreaker: combined record of Big Ten West opponents.
The conference records of the three cross-divisional teams that Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State played this season would be compared, and whichever trio of teams has the best cumulative Big Ten record would send the corresponding East team to the conference title game.
Right now, here’s how that tiebreaker stands:
- Michigan -- Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue: 3-7 record
- Ohio State -- Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota: 4-6 record
- Penn State -- Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern: 5-6 record
If we’re being honest, Penn State would probably win this tiebreaker, but there are still six weeks of football to play, and all the West teams are terrible enough to go on long losing streaks. Even Iowa.
It’s going to be hard for Michigan to win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff without going undefeated because of its weak schedule, but there’s always a chance. Just look at how all the chips fell perfectly into place for Ohio State to get in last year.
Most Michigan fans don’t care about the stakes -- they just want Ohio State to lose as much as possible. I can understand that. But if anyone is hoping for a little playoff insurance policy, this weekend’s matchup is the one to watch.
