ANN ARBOR, Mich. – The case for Michigan football star J.J. McCarthy as a true Heisman Trophy candidate is both compelling and unprecedented. But is it real?
If you pull up the current Heisman odds on DraftKings, you’ll see McCarthy’s name right at the top of the list at +240, with Michael Penix second at +320. That would suggest McCarthy isn’t just a candidate, but the favorite.
Betting odds don’t always paint an accurate picture, though. They’re meant to coax people into spending money, and who would be more willing to spend money than Michigan football fans supporting their star quarterback?
That’s not to say McCarthy isn’t worthy of consideration. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the country on a per-pass basis, but both the volume of his production and the quality of competition will work against him.
Statistical comparison
Let’s compare how McCarthy’s numbers stack up to fellow Heisman-caliber quarterbacks.
In the efficiency metrics, McCarthy has been as good as anyone. He ranks second behind Bo Nix with a 78.1% completion rate and second behind Jayden Daniels at 10.6 yards per pass attempt.
McCarthy is also one of the most efficient runners among these quarterbacks, averaging 5.1 yards per carry -- second to Daniels.
But the counting stats aren’t going to work in McCarthy’s favor, and the Heisman Trophy is largely a statistical award. Only two of these 12 quarterbacks have fewer passing yards than McCarthy, and he’s tied for seventh in passing touchdowns.
Stats aren’t the only factor in determining the Heisman winner, but it would be extremely difficult to justify McCarthy ahead of someone like Daniels right now.
Daniels has nearly 800 more passing yards and seven more touchdowns while averaging almost a full additional yard per attempt. He’s also tripled McCarthy’s rushing output with a higher per-carry average.
Oh yeah, and Daniels has done that against a schedule that includes games against 7-0 Florida State, 6-1 Ole Miss, and 7-1 Missouri -- none of which were at home.
Sure, McCarthy’s completion rate is 5% higher, but that’s not enough to overcome all those other factors.
It’s hard also to put McCarthy ahead of a certain Pac-12 quarterback -- and probably not the one you’re expecting.
Bo Nix leads the nation in completion percentage, has a 19-1 touchdown-interception rate, and leads McCarthy by nearly 300 passing yards despite having played seven games to McCarthy’s eight.
In one of the most high-profile games of the season so far, Nix completed 33 of 44 pass attempts for 337 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions at Washington. McCarthy hasn’t had a chance to play on that type of stage.
Why McCarthy lags statistically
There are two main factors working against McCarthy: quantity of passing stats and quality of opponent.
Neither one is within McCarthy’s control, but they’re still going to hurt him. Michigan simply hasn’t played any high-profile games, and McCarthy isn’t on the field enough to rack up massive numbers.
Here’s the point in each game when McCarthy threw his final pass:
- East Carolina: 2:51 remaining in 3rd quarter.
- UNLV: 4:44 remaining in 3rd quarter.
- Bowling Green: 0:58 remaining in 3rd quarter.
- Rutgers: 6:57 remaining in 4th quarter -- he went 4/4 for 46 yards in that quarter.
- Nebraska: 11:48 remaining in 3rd quarter.
- Minnesota: 3:20 remaining in 3rd quarter.
- Indiana: 8:28 remaining in 3rd quarter.
- Michigan State: 6:44 remaining in 3rd quarter.
That’s 144 minutes and 50 seconds of game time removed from McCarthy’s season because of the team’s dominance.
Michigan has played 480 minutes of football this season, and McCarthy has been out of action for 30.2% of them because of the score. That’s nearly two and a half full games’ worth of stat-accruing opportunity.
Obviously, if you take out 30% of any candidate’s production, their numbers start to look a whole lot worse. One could also argue that if McCarthy had played in closer games against better competition, his ratios might suffer because he’d be facing better defenses.
McCarthy might be able to overcome his quantity deficit if that was the only knock against his resume, but the lack of quality competition is going to open his entire body of work up to skepticism.
Michigan has won every game by at least 24 points, and the last four Big Ten games have had an average score of 49.5-6. No matter how dominant Michigan might be, teams have to truly stink to lose by an average of 43.5 points.
It’s hard to argue both the numbers and the strength of opponent at the same time.
Future opportunities
One of the reasons McCarthy is even in this discussion is because he’s playing for one of the best teams in the country. If he’s actually going to win the Heisman Trophy, Michigan definitely has to win the Big Ten and go to the College Football Playoff.
That would mean McCarthy has five more games to make a case: Purdue, Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State, and the Big Ten Championship Game.
Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State are better than any team Michigan has faced so far, and the winner of the Big Ten West (likely either Iowa or Wisconsin) will be, too. So that’s a perfect opportunity for McCarthy to prove himself against better teams on bigger stages.
Last year, McCarthy went into Columbus and put up 290 total yards and four touchdowns. Performances like that in high-stakes games against Penn State and Ohio State would help McCarthy overcome some of those areas where he lacks statistically.
Right now, a skeptic could say McCarthy’s success is a result of a horrible schedule. Do it against other top-10 teams, and that argument vanishes.
Conclusion
Even though the McCarthy Heisman hype train is starting to pick up steam, I’m not ready to climb aboard just yet. There’s really no valid argument for him over Daniels, and other players who have played tougher competition with similar stats are going to get the benefit of the doubt.
If the Wolverines continue to win in November and McCarthy helps lead them to another Big Ten title, this will be a conversation worth revisiting. Especially if other top contenders like Daniels, Nix, and Penix don’t take off between now and then.
McCarthy is the best Michigan quarterback in decades, and he’s probably going to win a bunch of Big Ten awards at the end of the season.
But is he worthy of the most prestigious individual honor in sports? Right now, there’s a lot of ground to make up.
