ANN ARBOR, Mich. – The potential Big Ten tiebreaker scenario between Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State got much more interesting over the weekend.
With Penn State’s loss to Ohio State on Saturday, the only way the three teams could end up tied for the Big Ten East Division is if Penn State beats Michigan and Michigan beats Ohio State.
If all three teams finish 11-1 in that scenario, the tiebreaker would ultimately come down to the combined conference record of each of those three teams’ Big Ten West opponents.
Current tiebreaker standings
Before this weekend, Penn State had a nice lead in this tiebreaker, but now, the standings have gotten much tighter.
Here are the three Big Ten West opponents for each team along with their current conference records:
- Michigan: Nebraska, Minnesota, and Purdue -- a 5-7 record.
- Ohio State: Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota -- a 6-6 record.
- Penn State: Illinois, Iowa, and Northwestern -- a 5-9 record.
These are the current Big Ten West standings:
- Wisconsin (3-1)
- Iowa (3-2)
- Minnesota (2-2)
- Nebraska (2-2)
- Northwestern (1-3)
- Purdue (1-3)
- Illinois (1-4)
Let’s assume Michigan beats Purdue and Ohio State beats Wisconsin and Minnesota. That would make these the updated tiebreaker records:
- Ohio State: 6-8
- Michigan: 5-9
- Penn State: 5-9
For Michigan and Ohio State, the tiebreaker is simple. Since they both play Minnesota and Purdue, it comes down to which team finishes with a better record between Nebraska and Wisconsin.
Most meaningful games remaining
Right now, Nebraska is one game behind Wisconsin, but the two teams will meet Nov. 18 in Madison. That’s a huge game from a tiebreaker perspective.
Another game of consequence on Nov. 18: Purdue at Northwestern. That’s a chance for both Michigan and Ohio State to pick up a game on Penn State in the tiebreaker.
Michigan fans should be rooting for Nebraska the rest of the way, because the Cornhuskers play Michigan State, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Every single one of those games is a chance for the Wolverines to make up ground in the tiebreaker.
Minnesota’s Nov. 4 game against Illinois and Nov. 25 game against Wisconsin are also big for Michigan. The Illinois game is a chance to gain a game on Penn State, and the Wisconsin matchup will be a two-game swing between Michigan and Ohio State.
Here’s a full list of the remaining games that matter for this tiebreaker:
Oct. 28:
- Maryland at Northwestern
- Michigan State at Minnesota
- Purdue at Nebraska
Nov. 4:
- Wisconsin at Indiana
- Nebraska at Michigan State
- Illinois at Minnesota
Nov. 11:
- Indiana at Illinois
- Rutgers at Iowa
- Maryland at Nebraska
- Northwestern at Wisconsin
Nov. 18:
- Purdue at Northwestern
- Nebraska at Wisconsin
Nov. 25:
- Iowa at Nebraska (Nov. 24)
- Wisconsin at Minnesota
- Indiana at Purdue
