Why Michigan could be No. 1 in first College Football Playoff rankings, or outside top 5 entirely

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – The next time Michigan takes the field, there will be a shiny new ranking next to its name, as the first College Football Playoff rankings come out one week from today.

But where will the committee rank the Wolverines? I genuinely have no idea, because I could justify them as the No. 1 team or outside the top five entirely.

Why Michigan could be No. 1

Two of the factors considered by the CFP committee are analytics and eye test, and no team has checked those boxes more emphatically than Michigan.

Let’s start with the eye test. The Wolverines have played eight games this season, and the closest one was a 24-point win over Rutgers. These aren’t late, backdoor blowouts, either -- they’re over by the middle of the third quarter.

On defense, Michigan has been suffocating. Minnesota managed to score 10 points, but no other team has surpassed seven.

The defense hasn’t allowed a single snap in a goal-line situation. It shut out Michigan State this weekend and was one play away from five other shutouts: East Carolina kicked a last-second field goal while trailing 30-0, UNLV scored from 20 yards out on the final drive against fourth stringers, and Rutgers, Nebraska, and Indiana scored their only touchdowns from 69, 74, and 44 yards out, respectively.

No team has put together a sustained touchdown drive against Michigan’s starters, and the calendar is about to turn to November. That’s bonkers.

Michigan has been so overwhelmingly dominant that its starting quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, has sat out over 30% of the team’s minutes. He’s played in the fourth quarter one time, and that was just to put the finishing touches on a blowout win over a team that’s currently 6-2.

Take a look at the other candidates for the No. 1 overall ranking. None have been as consistently dominant against inferior opponents.

• Ohio State trailed Maryland in the third quarter at home.
• Georgia trailed South Carolina 14-3 at halftime and was tied with Auburn in the final minutes.
• Florida State beat Boston College by two points.
• Washington trailed Arizona State well into the fourth quarter at home.
• Oklahoma trailed UCF in the fourth quarter and needed to stop a two-point conversion to win in regulation.

All of these teams can make legitimate arguments to be No. 1, and I wouldn’t have a problem with any of them. But there’s one thing that’s unique to Michigan’s resume: consistent, overwhelming dominance. While other top teams have played with their food at times, Michigan has been merciless.

Then, there are the efficiency metrics. They love the Wolverines.

Michigan has a massive lead in Bill Connelly’s SP+, with a 28.7 overall rating. Georgia is second at 24. SP+ doesn’t just measure margin of victory. It’s adjusted to account for both quality of opponent and tempo, and it ranks Michigan’s offense as the sixth-best in the nation, while the defense is second.

Don’t like SP+? OK, how about the Football Power Index? FPI ranks Michigan No. 2 behind Ohio State and first in both game control and average win probability. That roughly translates to, “No other team in the country would have been as dominant against Michigan’s schedule as Michigan has been.”

The Wolverines also have a sizable lead in the FPI efficiencies -- a 96 overall rating, while Ohio State is second at 89.6. Michigan ranks second in both offense (behind LSU) and defense (behind Penn State).

All this is to say: The most predictable metrics in football suggest that Michigan is either the best team in the country or very, very close to it. Football is inherently unpredictable, so that alone might not be enough to justify the Wolverines at No. 1, but it’s an argument in their favor.

Why Michigan could land outside top 5

If the CFP committee bases the first set of rankings solely on quality wins, Michigan will probably end up no higher than sixth.

There are six undefeated Power Five teams remaining: Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida State, Washington, and Oklahoma. The Wolverines and Bulldogs have, by far, the least impressive wins out of that group. And only one of those two teams is the two-time defending national champion.

Wins against FBS teams with winning records:

• Michigan: UNLV (6-1), Rutgers (6-2), Nebraska (4-3), Minnesota (4-3).
• Ohio State: Penn State (6-1), Notre Dame (6-2), Maryland (5-2), Western Kentucky (4-3).
• Georgia: Kentucky (5-2).
• Florida State: LSU (6-2), Duke (5-2), Clemson (4-3), Syracuse (4-3), Boston College (4-3).
• Washington: Oregon (6-1), Arizona (4-3).
• Oklahoma: Texas (6-1), SMU (5-2), Iowa State (4-3).

Maybe Kentucky and Rutgers aren’t all that different -- I don’t view either as a great win. But the other four undefeated teams definitely have stronger wins than Michigan and Georgia. If the rankings are based solely on which teams have the best wins on their resumes, there’s no way Michigan can be placed ahead of Ohio State, Florida State, Oklahoma, or Washington.

Georgia and Michigan have both earned the benefit of the doubt the past few seasons, but if it’s a tossup between the two resumes, I think the committee will go with the Bulldogs. Kentucky is better than Rutgers.

The next question: Would the committee consider placing any one-loss teams above Michigan? Here are the primary candidates:

• Texas: Wins at Alabama and against Kansas are both better than any of Michigan’s wins, and the loss was by four points to an undefeated Oklahoma, so I could see an argument.
• Oregon: The Ducks have been dominant in wins, but are Washington State or Colorado better than Rutgers? If so, are they better by enough of a margin to make up for a loss, even though that loss was on the road by three points against an undefeated Washington? It’s an interesting debate.
• Alabama: Wins against Tennessee and Ole Miss look really good right now, and going on the road to beat Mississippi State and Texas A&M isn’t bad, either. The loss to Texas was a bit lopsided, but it’s certainly not a bad loss. There’s an argument to make for Alabama.
• Penn State: This weekend’s game in Columbus was very competitive, but Penn State’s wins against Iowa and West Virginia haven’t aged all that well. It’ll play out on the field in a few weeks, but in the first rankings, I think the Nittany Lions will be behind Michigan.
• Oregon State: Oregon State has two really strong wins over Utah and UCLA, but that loss to Washington State isn’t quite as excusable as the losses by the teams above.
• Ole Miss: This is the only team to beat Tulane so far this season, and both the shootout win over LSU and the loss to Alabama have aged well. Ole Miss could receive a higher ranking than people expect.
• Utah: Quietly, the Utes have one of the best one-loss resumes after officially knocking USC out of the playoff race this weekend. Utah also has wins over 5-2 Florida and 5-2 UCLA, and a 14-point loss at Oregon State.
• Missouri: Missouri has three wins over 5-2 teams in Kansas State, Memphis, and Kentucky. The loss to LSU was competitive enough to justify.
• North Carolina: The Tar Heels weren’t nearly as dominant against Minnesota as Michigan, and their win over Miami doesn’t come close to justifying a loss to previously 1-5 Virginia. North Carolina won’t be in the top 15.
• Louisville: Jeff Brohm had his moment in the spotlight when Louisville upset Notre Dame, but that was erased when the Cardinals turned around and lost to a terrible Pittsburgh team.

Of those 10 one-loss teams, I think six can make a case to be ranked ahead of Michigan based purely on the quality of their wins and the excusability of their loss: Texas, Oregon, Alabama, Ole Miss, Utah, and Missouri.

Having said that, I wouldn’t rank any of those teams over any of the undefeated teams, nor do I think the committee will do so next week.

Where I expect CFP committee to rank Michigan

This is a tough ranking to project, not only because we haven’t gotten a feel for the priorities of this committee yet, but also because there’s another weekend of games to play before the poll is released.

I think since the Wolverines are on bye, they’ll be a little out-of-sight, out-of-mind when the CFP committee meets on Halloween. So the raw resume might play a bigger role than the eye test.

Let’s just pretend the first poll was coming out tonight. Here’s roughly what I think the top 20 would look like:

1. Ohio State
2. Florida State
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Michigan
6. Washington
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Oregon State
10. Utah
11. Oregon
12. Penn State
13. Ole Miss
14. Missouri
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. LSU
18. North Carolina
19. Duke
20. Tennessee

Where would I rank Michigan?

Unless a Power Five team with more losses has a resume that is significantly better than a team with fewer losses, I typically rank teams in tiers based on record. So, for example, I value being undefeated and rank those teams together, then move onto the one-loss teams, etc.

So I think the top six should be some combination of the six remaining unbeaten teams. All of them have impressive resumes in their own ways, whether it’s quality wins, overall dominance, the eye test, etc.

I care about quality wins and avoiding bad losses. I care about margin of victory, game control, and eye test. I also trust certain metrics that have proven to be accurate predictors in the past (like SP+).

This would be my personal ranking, which takes into consideration all of those factors, but values quality wins above all else:

1. Florida State
2. Ohio State
3. Oklahoma
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Washington
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Penn State
10. Oregon State
11. Utah
12. Ole Miss
13. Oregon
14. Missouri
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. North Carolina
18. LSU
19. Duke
20. Tennessee