ANN ARBOR, Mich. – The potential Big Ten tiebreaker scenario between Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State is extremely close heading into the final month of the regular season.
With Penn State’s loss to Ohio State two weeks ago, the only way the three teams could end up tied for the Big Ten East Division is if Penn State beats Michigan and Michigan beats Ohio State.
If all three teams finish 11-1 in that scenario, the tiebreaker would ultimately come down to the combined conference record of each of those three teams’ Big Ten West opponents.
Current tiebreaker standings
Since last week’s update, the standings have gotten even tighter.
Here are the three Big Ten West opponents for each team, along with their current combined conference records:
- Michigan: Nebraska, Minnesota, and Purdue -- 7-8 record.
- Ohio State: Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota -- 7-8 record.
- Penn State: Illinois, Iowa, and Northwestern -- 6-9 record.
These are the current Big Ten West standings:
- Wisconsin (3-2)
- Iowa (3-2)
- Minnesota (3-2)
- Nebraska (3-2)
- Northwestern (2-3)
- Purdue (1-4)
- Illinois (1-4)
For all three teams to go 11-1 and finish in a three-way tie, Michigan has to beat Purdue and Ohio State has to beat Minnesota. So we’ll add two losses to Michigan’s and Ohio State’s opponent record.
Also, since Northwestern plays Iowa, Illinois plays Iowa, and Northwestern plays Illinois, Penn State’s West opponents are guaranteed to go 3-3 in those head-to-head matchups. The same goes for when Purdue plays Minnesota on the Michigan/Ohio State side.
That would make these the updated tiebreaker records:
- Michigan: 8-11
- Ohio State: 8-11
- Penn State: 9-12
For Michigan and Ohio State, the tiebreaker is simple: Since they both play Minnesota and Purdue, it comes down to which team finishes with a better record between Nebraska and Wisconsin. Right now, both are 3-2.
Most meaningful games remaining
Nebraska and Wisconsin will meet Nov. 18 in Madison. That’s a huge game from a tiebreaker perspective.
Another game of consequence on Nov. 18: Purdue at Northwestern. That’s a chance for both Michigan and Ohio State to pick up a game on Penn State in the tiebreaker.
Michigan fans should be rooting for Nebraska the rest of the way, because the Cornhuskers play Michigan State, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Every single one of those games is a chance for the Wolverines to make up ground in the tiebreaker.
Minnesota’s Nov. 4 game against Illinois and Nov. 25 game against Wisconsin are also big for Michigan. The Illinois game is a chance to gain a game on Penn State, and the Wisconsin matchup is a chance to gain a half-game on Ohio State.
Here’s a full list of the remaining games that matter for this tiebreaker:
Nov. 4:
- Wisconsin at Indiana
- Nebraska at Michigan State
- Illinois at Minnesota
Nov. 11:
- Indiana at Illinois
- Rutgers at Iowa
- Maryland at Nebraska
- Northwestern at Wisconsin
Nov. 18:
- Purdue at Northwestern
- Nebraska at Wisconsin
Nov. 25:
- Iowa at Nebraska (Nov. 24)
- Wisconsin at Minnesota
- Indiana at Purdue
Let’s make some predictions
The Big Ten West is a big jumbled mess of mediocrity, so it’s hard to make predictions with any confidence. But let’s try anyway!
Assume these matchups go as expected:
- Wisconsin beats Indiana
- Minnesota beats Illinois
- Iowa beats Rutgers
- Wisconsin beats Northwestern
That makes these the true toss-up games (winner in bold if I had to guess):
- Nebraska at Michigan State
- Indiana at Illinois
- Maryland at Nebraska
- Purdue at Northwestern
- Nebraska at Wisconsin
- Iowa at Nebraska
- Wisconsin at Minnesota
- Indiana at Purdue
That would make the final standings:
- Ohio State: 14-13
- Michigan: 12-15
- Penn State: 12-15
It’s amazing how close this tiebreaker could be. For example, if you flipped the Nebraska-Wisconsin game, suddenly both Michigan’s and Ohio State’s opponents would be 13-14, and Michigan would win the East based on the theoretical head-to-head victory over the Buckeyes.
Maybe Michigan will beat Penn State, or Ohio State will beat Michigan, and then none of this will matter. But for now, it’s fun to go through all the scenarios -- and it gives the Big Ten West race some national meaning.
