ANN ARBOR, Mich. – The first College Football Playoff rankings have been unveiled, and there are only 13 teams left in contention for those four coveted spots.
Last season, I started a tradition of breaking down every possible outcome for every contender based on which team would make the playoff in each scenario. In other words, what needs to happen for each of those 13 teams to make the top four if they finish either undefeated or with one loss?
Here are the 13 teams still in playoff contention:
- ACC: Florida State, Louisville
- Big 12: Oklahoma, Texas
- Big Ten: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
- Pac-12: Washington, Oregon
- SEC: Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri
How this works
NOTE: If you followed the breakdowns last year and remember how this works, you can skip this section. It’s just a refresher.
Here’s how you decipher this list: Start from the top item and work your way down. If the specified team finishes the season as outlined in that scenario, then that team will earn the top unclaimed playoff spot. If no team meets the qualification for that outcome, skip it and move to the next item.
Continue in that manner until you’ve filled all four spots.
For example: No. 1 in this hierarchy is “undefeated SEC champion.” In other words, if any team finishes this season as an undefeated SEC champ, that team will occupy the No. 1 spot in the final College Football Playoff rankings.
The No. 2 item on this list is “undefeated Big Ten champion.” If there’s an undefeated Big Ten champ at the end of the year, that team will be the No. 2 overall seed IF there is also an undefeated SEC champ. If there isn’t an undefeated SEC champ, then that undefeated Big Ten team assumes the No. 1 overall spot.
If there isn’t a 13-0 Big Ten team, then you move onto item No. 3 on the list, and so on.
The top four outcomes on the list that actually happen will determine the four teams that make the playoff, in that order.
So since “11-1 Michigan” is 21st on the list, in order to make the playoff with an 11-1 record, Michigan would need three or fewer of the top 20 possible outcomes to actually happen.
1. Undefeated SEC champion
- Possible teams: Georgia
I know, right now Georgia is ranked behind Ohio State while they’re both 8-0, but we all know what will happen if an SEC team finishes with a perfect record.
To finish unbeaten over the next month, Georgia would have to take down the teams ranked No. 12, No. 10, No. 17, and No. 8 in the committee’s current rankings. Meanwhile, Ohio State will play only one more ranked team: No. 3 Michigan.
So, I think it’s pretty clear that if the back-to-back defending champs go 13-0, they’ll jump to that familiar top seed.
2. Undefeated Big Ten champion
- Possible teams: Michigan, Ohio State
There might be a scenario where the Big Ten champ finishes ahead of an undefeated Georgia, but I don’t see it. That doesn’t really matter, though, because the farthest Michigan or Ohio State would finish if they go 13-0 is second.
Michigan is already No. 3 in the nation, and its final four games include a trip to No. 11 Penn State and a home game against No. 1 Ohio State. Those two wins would be enough to cement the Wolverines as (at worst) the No. 2 seed for the third year in a row.
3. Undefeated Pac-12 champion
- Possible teams: Washington
Washington is currently the lowest-ranked undefeated team despite having the best win in the country over No. 6 Oregon. That’s probably because of uninspiring performances against Arizona, Arizona State, and Stanford.
But the next five weeks for Washington look very similar to what Georgia is about to face. The Huskies travel to No. 20 USC this weekend, then host No. 18 Utah, then visit No. 16 Oregon State. A likely rematch against Oregon awaits in the Pac-12 title game.
4. Undefeated ACC champion
- Possible teams: Florida State
Florida State started the season with an excellent win over LSU, and that has held up to an extent, as LSU checked in at No. 14 in the CFP poll. But the rest of the ACC has done Florida State no favors, with only FSU and Louisville ranked in the initial top 25.
The win over Clemson loses more luster by the week, and even Duke appears to have been a fraud, losing by a combined 41 points the past two weeks against the only ACC teams with a pulse.
If every Power Five conference but the Big 12 has an undefeated champion at the end of the year, Florida State’s quality wins over LSU and Miami will be far inferior to those by the rest of the field. But on the bright side, there’s no scenario where an undefeated ACC champ gets left out.
5. One-loss SEC champion (except Alabama)
- Possible teams: Georgia, Ole Miss, Missouri
I’m very confident that a one-loss SEC champ would be ranked ahead of a one-loss Big Ten champ if it’s Georgia, Ole Miss, or Missouri, because their resumes would be loaded with great wins. I’ll touch on Alabama in a moment.
For Georgia to finish 12-1, its loss would likely be to either No. 10 Ole Miss or No. 17 Tennessee -- both respectable losses, especially since a win over Georgia would vault either team in the rankings. Georgia would also pick up wins against the other of those two teams, No. 12 Missouri, and likely No. 8 Alabama in the SEC title game.
Missouri’s path to 12-1 includes a win at Georgia, a win over No. 17 Tennessee, and an SEC title game win over Alabama -- that would almost certainly be enough to push Missouri into this spot.
Ole Miss would also have to knock off Georgia on the road, and then Alabama would have to lose twice for Ole Miss to get into the SEC title game for a potential rematch with Georgia. Beating the Bulldogs again would be quite a statement.
6. One-loss Pac-12 champion Oregon
Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and a theoretical one-loss Big Ten champion are by far the toughest group to rank in comparison to each other.
What’s clear is that the committee favors the Pac-12 over the Big 12. One-loss Oregon is ranked ahead of one-loss Texas, and all four two-loss Pac-12 teams are ranked ahead of the three two-loss Big 12 teams.
On top of that, there isn’t going to be a chance for Texas or Alabama to outshine Oregon down the stretch. Oregon plays two more ranked teams and then likely Washington in the Pac-12 title game, Texas plays one more ranked team and then likely Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, and Alabama plays one more ranked team and then likely Georgia in the SEC title game.
Oregon vs. Texas is a fascinating debate, but both would be 12-1 and finish the season by avenging their only loss in the conference championship. Considering Oregon is currently ranked higher than Texas, and the committee obviously favors the Pac-12 over the Big 12, I don’t see how Texas could jump the Ducks without some help.
7. One-loss Big 12 champion Texas
The committee made it clear that head-to-head matters by slotting Texas one spot ahead of Alabama in the initial rankings. The resumes are very similar: Texas has wins over No. 8 and No. 21, and a loss to No. 9, while Alabama has wins over No. 10 and No. 17, and a loss to No. 7.
Why didn’t No. 9 Oklahoma get that same head-to-head benefit of the doubt after beating Texas? Because the resumes aren’t similar enough to even consider that head-to-head matchup. Oklahoma only has one ranked win, and its loss was to a lower-ranked team (one that Texas beat by 26 points).
For Texas to finish as a one-loss conference champ, it has to beat another ranked team in Kansas State and then likely avenge its only loss against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. That would guarantee the Longhorns a playoff spot unless Washington, Florida State, and either Michigan or Ohio State go undefeated.
8. One-loss SEC champion Alabama
Alabama would have to beat both LSU and likely Georgia to get to 12-1, and would therefore be on an 11-game winning streak at the time of the final rankings. I think that would be enough to put the Tide over a one-loss Big Ten champ.
Remember what happened in 2021, when Michigan had the better resume but Alabama had the better conference title game win? The committee rewarded the SEC champ, as Alabama leapfrogged Michigan for the top spot.
I don’t think Alabama can jump Texas without a Texas loss because the resumes are going to remain very similar. But the Tide would still be in very good shape.
9. One-loss Big Ten champion
- Possible teams: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State
Right now, Ohio State has a much better resume than Michigan or Penn State. But a lot will change over the next four weeks.
In order for one of these teams to finish as a one-loss Big Ten champ, it would almost certainly involve that team winning some type of 11-1 tiebreaker.
For Michigan, that likely means a loss at Penn State and a win over Ohio State. For Ohio State, it would be a loss to Michigan. For Penn State, it would mean winning out, including a victory over Michigan.
All three teams would have one top-10 win and one top-10 loss to go with a handful of decent wins over mediocre Big Ten teams. It’s probably enough to get into the playoff, but it wouldn’t be a slam dunk.
In the end, I think Oregon, Texas, and Alabama would jump the Big Ten champ the week of its loss, while others would remain behind.
10. One-loss Pac-12 champion Washington
I don’t think the committee is overly impressed with Washington’s body of work, despite the win over No. 6 Oregon. Between the close calls against Arizona and Arizona State and the lack of a second great win, the Huskies are definitely vulnerable.
Here’s the other problem: If Washington continues to win the next three weeks, it will hand USC, Utah, and Oregon State each a third loss, inherently devaluing those wins. Two of those teams also have to play Oregon down the stretch, so they could pick up fourth losses.
If Washington loses a game and then beats Oregon again in the Pac-12 title game, it will probably remain behind any one-loss champ from the Big Ten and SEC (as well as Texas), simply because it hasn’t looked nearly as dominant.
11. One-loss Big 12 champion Oklahoma
One of the biggest losers from the first set of rankings was Oklahoma. There was a scenario where the head-to-head win forced the Sooners to be above Texas, and therefore above Alabama, but the committee made it clear they don’t think those resumes are even comparable.
Oklahoma only has one ranked game remaining, and if it beats Oklahoma State this weekend, Oklahoma State will drop out of the rankings anyway. While the rest of the Power Five contenders play their highest-profile games in November, Oklahoma will be treading water, and it’s already at a disadvantage in the CFP poll to begin with -- not a great combination.
But Oklahoma is still in a pretty good spot. It would make the playoff at 12-1 unless Florida State finishes 13-0 and the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 all have undefeated or one-loss champions.
12. One-loss loser of SEC title game
- Possible teams: Georgia
I went back and forth on this, but I don’t see how 12-1 Florida State could get in over 12-1 Georgia, even if Georgia isn’t a conference champion.
First of all, Georgia’s loss would be to Alabama, and Florida State’s loss would be to an unranked team -- at best Miami.
Georgia would also have wins over Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, while Florida State’s best wins would be over LSU and Duke. I think we can all see which way this one would lean.
13. One-loss ACC champion
- Possible teams: Florida State, Louisville
The problem for Florida State at this point is that any loss would be a bad loss. There isn’t another ranked team on the schedule, and the Seminoles likely won’t have a top 10 win unless LSU wins at Alabama.
Fortunately, Florida State isn’t going to lose to any of these bad teams, and the ACC title game might be a breeze. If there’s one team that should feel most confident about going 13-0, it’s the Seminoles. But a loss sure would hurt.
14. One-loss loser of Pac-12 title game
- Possible teams: Washington
Unless UCLA makes an unlikely run to the Pac-12 title game, this loss for Washington would be against a team it already beat. So I don’t think all would be lost.
The problem is that loss would probably be to Oregon, and if that meant the Ducks finished 12-1, they would get into the playoff. I don’t think the Pac-12 is going to get two teams.
15. One-loss loser of Big Ten title game
- Possible teams: Michigan, Ohio State
No matter how you look at it, a loss in the Big Ten title game would be ugly for Michigan or Ohio State. The West Division representative will at best be Iowa, and at worst, it could even be Northwestern!
But in this scenario, Michigan would have two excellent wins over Penn State and Ohio State, or Ohio State would have two excellent wins over Michigan and Penn State. Those wins would be enough to keep them both in consideration.
16. One-loss loser of ACC title game
- Possible teams: Florida State
A loss to Louisville in the ACC title game wouldn’t be horribly disastrous, considering the committee ranked Louisville No. 13 in the first poll. But the lack of quality wins for Florida State wouldn’t look great next to a blemish on the resume.
I think, in the end, the committee would value the quality wins from the Big Ten title game loser over Florida State’s slightly more forgivable loss.
17. Ole Miss finishes 11-1
If Ole Miss finishes the season 11-1, that means it will have won its final eight games, including on the road against Georgia. Its only loss would have come at Alabama in late September.
It’s going to take a ton of chaos for an 11-1 team to make the playoff without even going to a conference championship game, but if it does happen, Ole Miss would have the best resume of the bunch.
18. Ohio State finishes 11-1
If Ohio State loses to Michigan and doesn’t go to the Big Ten championship game, it would still have wins over Penn State and Notre Dame. That probably doesn’t stack up against Ole Miss beating Georgia, LSU, and Tulane, but it’s close.
Ultimately, I think Ohio State losing its final game and Ole Miss finishing on an eight-game winning streak would be the determining factor.
19. Georgia finishes 11-1
This would mean Georgia lost to Missouri and then beat Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech, but Missouri ultimately represented the SEC East in the conference title game.
The committee has already admitted it prefers Ohio State to Georgia while both are undefeated, and a loss to Michigan would be as justifiable as a loss to Missouri, so I don’t see why the Bulldogs would leap the Buckeyes.
20. Penn State finishes 11-1
If Penn State wins out, it will collect a quality win over Michigan, but the resume overall would still be lacking. Its second-best win would either be Iowa or Maryland.
21. Michigan finishes 11-1
This would mean Michigan either lost to Ohio State in a Big Ten East winner-take-all showdown on Nov. 25 or the Wolverines lost to Penn State, beat Ohio State, and lost the division tiebreaker.
Either way, Michigan would only have one ranked win on its resume, and everyone else would have to fall apart to open a path to the playoffs. Michigan’s entire playoff argument is built on dominance, and a loss would obviously damage the credibility of that dominance.
