ANN ARBOR, Mich. – Michigan basketball is tipping off a new season on Tuesday night, and it feels like excitement from the fan base is at an all-time low.
The Wolverines lost their three top scorers from a team that missed the NCAA Tournament last year for the first time since 2015. Since coming inches from a Final Four appearance in 2021, the quality of basketball in the program has steadily decreased.
At the same time, Jim Harbaugh started winning Big Ten championships, keeping fans invested in college football deep into the winter. As a result, interest in the basketball team waned even further.
With the team picked to finish 11th in the Big Ten, there probably won’t be many packed houses at the Crisler Center during the non-conference, starting with Tuesday’s opener against Big South favorite UNC Asheville.
But for those fans who are excited for the return of college basketball, what should they expect from the Wolverines?
New-look roster
Juwan Howard hit the transfer portal hard during the offseason, bringing in a trio of contributors in Olivier Nkamhoua, Tray Jackson, and Nimari Burnett.
Nkamhoua was the most productive of the three last season, averaging 10.8 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game at Tennessee. He’s not much of a shooting threat, but he’s long, athletic, and can contribute defensively, on the boards, and at the rim.
That’s going to be a bit of a theme for this year’s team. Burnett is a former four-star recruit who spent the last two seasons at Texas Tech and Alabama, shooting just 29% from three. Jackson has shot well in small volumes, but gives Michigan another athletic wing with size.
Point guard Dug McDaniel and center Tarris Reed are the best returning players, with veteran Terrance Williams II trying to carve out a more consistent role. Will Tschetter will get some minutes, as will Jace Howard and Jaelin Llewellyn when they return from injury.
George Washington III might be asked to fill a shooting void as a true freshman.
Overall, it’s a roster full of unproven players, and most of them haven’t played together for very long. But there’s certainly some upside if they can embrace a style of play that takes advantage of their length, athleticism, and versatility.
It’s worth mentioning that Juwan Howard won’t be with the team for at least the first few games as he continues to recover from heart surgery. For now, assistant Phil Martelli is at the helm.
Expect a different play style
I got my first look at this year’s team during the exhibition against Northwood. I don’t take away much from a game against an opponent of that caliber, but expect Michigan to run the floor, play adequate defense, and struggle to score, especially from around the arc.
But it’s not all bad. While last year’s team was frustrating because it had talent and underachieved, this type of roster is capable of producing exactly the opposite.
Michigan has the type of roster that, if it plays to its strengths, could win a few more games than expected. The expectations for Michigan basketball haven’t been this low since John Beilein’s first season, so the bar to overachieve is reachable.
Jackson, Nkamhoua, Howard, Youssef Khayat, Tschetter, and Williams are all athletic wings between 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-10. They can rebound and run the floor to try to generate easy baskets. They can create mismatches and finish at the rim. If Michigan has to run a bunch of half-court offense, it probably won’t be pretty.
As long as there’s buy-in, the length and athleticism could make Michigan sneaky good on the defensive end, as well.
Having Reed in the middle instead of Hunter Dickinson is probably the single greatest difference between recent Michigan teams and this year’s group. Reed is not capable of shooting from the outside. He doesn’t possess Dickinson’s wide range of post moves.
But he’s also more versatile on the defensive end and capable of cleaning up around the basket. Reed isn’t nearly as talented, but the absence of Dickinson will finally force Michigan to be more wing- and guard-oriented, which could actually turn out to be a positive.
What are the expectations?
The Wolverines probably don’t have the talent to be a top-25 team, but in a best-case scenario, they could finish in the middle of the Big Ten and sneak into the NCAA Tournament.
Last year, Penn State finished 10th in the league and made the dance. Iowa State, West Virginia, and Iowa all got in with 19 wins. (Heck, Iowa State got a No. 6 seed with a 19-14 record.)
So it’s not unreasonable to hope Michigan can make the NCAA Tournament, because that bar is pretty low. But I’m not expecting it.
The non-conference schedule includes at least five games against teams expected to be in the tournament -- UNC Asheville, St. John’s, Memphis, Oregon, and Florida. That number could increase to six or seven, depending on what happens during the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament later this month.
UNC Asheville is the only team in that group coming to Ann Arbor, so the non-conference is going to be a grind.
Then, once conference play starts, Michigan will play 14 of 20 games against what are viewed as the top tournament contenders in the Big Ten (Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Maryland, Wisconsin, Indiana, Northwestern, Ohio State, and Iowa). It plays each of the league’s ranked teams (Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois) twice.
Is Michigan good enough to compete in most of those games? Probably. But can it scrape together 20 wins over the course of the season? I’m expecting them to finish more in the 15- to 18-win range.
We’ll know more in a few weeks, but for now, I’m going into the season expecting the Wolverines to land on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. At the same time, there’s a chance they can sneak in as a double-digit seed if they pull off a couple upsets at home.
