ANN ARBOR, Mich. – If you followed the release of yesterday’s preseason AP college football poll, I’m sure you heard the stat about Michigan.
At No. 9, the Wolverines are the lowest-ranked defending national champions since 2011. Is that disrespect? I’m sure Michigan’s coaching staff will frame it that way.
But I think it’s a perfectly justified spot for Michigan.
Offseason losses
Other than Georgia -- which won back-to-back national titles and narrowly missed another undefeated season -- Michigan has been the most consistent program in the country since 2021.
The Wolverines went 40-3 over the past three seasons, won the Big Ten three times in a row, and were the only team in the nation to make each College Football Playoff.
But unlike Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama, Michigan doesn’t recruit at a level that deserves an automatic top-five preseason ranking.
You’ll rarely see a team lose as much talent as the Wolverines from 2023 to 2024.
Let’s start with the coaching staff. Not only is the best head coach in program history gone, but most of his staff left, also. That includes the strength coach who’s been credited for so much of Michigan’s recent success.
On the player side, the group of veterans who departed for the NFL weren’t just elite on the field, they were fundamental in building and maintaining the winning culture that came out of nowhere after a dismal 2020 season.
Think about the players Michigan has to replace:
- Quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
- Running back Blake Corum.
- Wide receiver Cornelius Johnson.
- Wide receiver Roman Wilson.
- Tight end A.J. Barner.
- Offensive lineman Zak Zinter.
- Offensive lineman Trevor Keegan.
- Offensive lineman Drake Nugent.
- Offensive lineman Trente Jones.
- Offensive lineman Karsen Barnhart.
- Offensive lineman LaDarius Henderson.
- Defensive lineman Kris Jenkins Jr.
- Defensive lineman Jaylen Harrell.
- Defensive lineman Braider McGregor.
- Linebacker Junior Colson.
- Linebacker Michael Barrett.
- Defensive back Mike Sainristil.
- Defensive back Keon Sabb (transfer).
- Defensive back Josh Wallace.
- Defensive back Rod Moore (injury).
That’s 20 key players, many who contributed for three or more seasons. Michigan has a lot of questions to answer.
- Who will be the starting quarterback, and how much drop-off will there be from McCarthy?
- Can Michigan cover in the secondary, beyond Will Johnson?
- What does the brand-new offensive line look like? It’s not often a unit has to replace all five (six, really) starters in one offseason.
- Are there enough weapons at wide receiver?
There’s a chance Michigan has an answer for each of these concerns, but we won’t know until next month. Because of that, I think AP voters are well within their rights to have reservations about this team.
Plenty of talent remains
On the other hand, it would be unfair to say Michigan doesn’t deserve a top-10 ranking at all. Even considering all of the offseason losses, there’s more than enough talent on the roster.
Let’s start with the defensive line, because almost every championship contender has a great pass rush.
Michigan has two of the best players in the nation on the interior: Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. Meanwhile, Josiah Stewart and Derrick Moore give Michigan proven pass rushers on the outside. The versatile Rayshaun Benny is no slouch, either.
Will Johnson might be the best player in the country, and he’s got some veteran help in the secondary with safeties Makari Paige and Quinten Johnson.
Maryland transfer linebacker Jaishawn Barham is earning rave reviews out of fall camp, and Ernest Hausmann will step into a bigger role than last year.
On offense, it’s all about Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards. Those are two elite playmakers to build around while the rest of these guys get their feet wet. Kalel Mullings is a strong RB2, as well.
2017 comparison
The only recent Michigan season that compares to this offseason’s exodus is 2017.
Harbaugh’s 2016 Michigan team came about an inch from a Big Ten title and playoff appearance. Then, the roster basically had to undergo a total reset.
Taco Carlton, Chris Wormley, and Ryan Glasgow were drafted from Michigan’s defensive line. Jabrill Peppers, Jourdan Lewis, Delano Hill, and Jeremy Clark were gone from the secondary.
The offense lost its top three pass catchers in tight end Jake Butt and receivers Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson.
Leading rusher De’Veon Smith, top tackler Ben Gedeon, and kicker/punter Kenny Allen also moved on.
That list of names isn’t nearly impressive as the group that just won a title, but you get the point: Michigan lost most of its key players before 2017. And what followed was a fairly disappointing 8-4 season.
Michigan will be better in 2024 than it was in 2017, but the competition is also more fierce. Three of the top four teams in the nation are on the schedule, as well as No. 23 USC and a national title rematch at Washington.
Would I be shocked if Michigan went 8-4 this year? The ceiling is a lot higher, but I think it’s within the realm of possibility.
9th would be a success
Let’s say the Wolverines do finish ninth in the country this year. Guess what? That would make them a playoff team.
The top 12 teams make the College Football Playoff, and even if as many as three spots get stolen by lower-ranked conference champions (the five highest-ranked conference champs get in no matter what), the No. 9 team in the country would be safe.
The Big Ten and SEC both got rid of divisions this season, which means the teams in those conference championship games will definitely be ranked in the top nine.
So it’s not like previous years when a team could win the Big Ten Championship Game while ranked in the 20s thanks to a weak West Division. There will never be four conference champions ranked outside the top nine, so that ninth-ranked team is safe.
If Michigan makes it back to the College Football Playoff for a fourth-straight season, this year will be a resounding success.
Final thoughts
Think about what made the 2023 Michigan football team special and you’ll quickly realize the preseason ranking is no surprise.
Michigan won last year because it had extremely experienced players at almost every key position. A team that recruits like Michigan had never won the national title in the playoff era. It was an outlier.
So now that most of those veteran players are gone, Michigan needs to prove it can still compete at the top of the sport. A No. 9 ranking shows most voters are at least giving them that chance.