Michigan incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer continues to lead in the polls as the general election nears, according to a new WDIV/Detroit News poll.
Results from a survey of Michigan voters conducted between Oct. 26-28 found that Democratic Gov. Whitmer is polling ahead of Republican opponent Tudor Dixon, and that issues of inflation and reproductive rights are largely motivating Michiganders to vote.
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Here are some of the key findings from this portion of the survey:
Whitmer leads Dixon by 8.6%
- Incumbent Gov. Whitmer is leading Tudor Dixon by a margin of 51.7%-43.1% -- meaning Whitmer currently leads by 8.6 points.
- The race for Michigan governor has tightened within the last few months. Whitmer previously held a 17-point lead in September.
- Support for Whitmer remains strong among voters who identify as “strong” Democrats (99%) and leaning Democratic voters (95.3%).
- Support for Dixon is strong among voters who identify as “strong” Republicans (90%) and somewhat strong among leaning Republican voters (63.1%).
- Whitmer has increased her support among Independent voters, with 57.6% of them showing support for Whitmer. 30.4% of Independent voters support Dixon.
- Of note, Whitmer has 21% of the vote from leaning Republican voters, and 6.3% of the vote from strong Republican voters.
- Dixon has 0% support from strong Democratic voters, and 2.4% of the vote from leaning Democratic voters.
- Whitmer has a 19-point lead on Dixon among Metro Detroit voters, but Dixon has a narrow lead among voters throughout the the state of Michigan.
- Whitmer is leading among female voters by a 2-1 margin compared to Dixon. She also holds a substantial lead among both Independent male and female voters.
- Dixon holds a lead among male voters at a margin of 54.6% Dixon-40.9% Whitmer.
- Whitmer is leading among absentee voters -- a group that is often comprised mainly of Democratic voters, as is the case this election.
Whitmer/Dixon approval ratings
- Whitmer’s job approval ratings remain consistent, with 53% of voters showing approval of the job she’s done as governor. Whitmer’s job approval has stayed between 53%-56% throughout this year.
- 49.1% of voters view Gov. Whitmer favorably, while 46.3% of voters view her unfavorably. Both favorable and unfavorable numbers have increased since the last poll.
- Dixon has increased her name identification to 93.4%, compared to an extremely low name I.D. in previous polling.
- 37.4% of voters view Dixon favorably, while 44.8% of voters view her unfavorably. 11.2% of voters have no opinion of Dixon.
Whitmer/Dixon debates
- Voters who watched the two televised debates between Whitmer and Dixon say they had no influence on their vote.
- 36.4% of voters watched the debates, while 63.1% of voters did not.
- 60.5% of voters who did watch the debates said the debates had no influence on their vote.
More: Michigan Voter Guide 2022: Get to know key races, ballot proposals before voting
Voters motivated
- Voter motivation remains strong among Michigan voters as we approach the Nov. 8 election.
- Strong Republican voters are among the most motivated, coming in at a grade of 9.7 motivation on a 10-point scale. Leaning Republicans’ motivation is rated at 9.6.
- Motivation is rated at 9.4 among strong Democratic voters, and at 8.5 among leaning Democratic voters.
- Motivation is rated at 8.8 among Independent voters.
- Voter motivation is especially high among voters between 18-29 years old, which is similar to elections in 2018 and 2020.
Inflation, abortion rights driving motivation
- The primary factors motivating Michigan voters to vote in November are the issues of inflation and abortion/reproductive rights.
- 40% of voters identified inflation and the cost of living as their primary motivating factor.
- 31.4% of voters identified abortion and women’s rights as their primary motivating factor.
- Inflation rose to the primary motivating factor, which had trailed behind abortion for several months.
- At the beginning of October, about 23.6% listed inflation as their biggest motivating factor, compared to 35.5% of voters listing abortion as their biggest motivating factor.
- Abortion is the primary motivating factor among strong and leaning Democratic voters, while inflation is biggest among strong and leaning Republican voters.
- The distinction is clearest between men and women: A majority of female voters (45.9%) cite abortion as their primary motivating factor this election, while a majority of male voters (38.5%) cite inflation as their primary factor.
- 25.8% of male voters cited abortion as their motivation, and 26.4% of female voters cited inflation as their motivation.
Methodology
The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a Michigan statewide survey of November 2022 likely general election voters. The 600 sample, live operator telephone survey was conducted on October 26-28, 2022, and has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence. 28.4% of respondents were contacted via landline telephone. 71.6% of respondents were contacted via cell phone telephone. This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 News and the Detroit News.