A new poll shows where Michigan voters stand on the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump one week before Election Day.
Harris leads Trump by 3%
In this poll, Harris leads Trump by a margin of 3% -- 46.7%-43.7%.
That’s a 0.4% change from our early October survey, when Harris led by 2.6% -- 46.8%-44.2%.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. got 3.9% of the vote.
Kennedy is taking 4.2% of the strong GOP vote and Harris winning 3.1% of that vote.
Trump and Kennedy are each winning only 1% of the strong Democratic vote.
Importance of voter turnout
Among Harris voters, 39.1% plan to vote by absentee ballot, 12.3% plan to vote at an early voting site, and 46.5% plan to vote on Election Day.
Among Trump voters, 21.1% plan to vote by absentee ballot, 16.8% plan to vote at an early voting site, and 58.3% plan to vote on Election Day.
With poll results showing a lead that’s within the margin of error (+/- 4%), voter turnout will be critical to the presidential race in Michigan.
Harris leads by 30.9% (63.4%-52.5%) with absentee voters and 43.7% (70%-26.3%) with voters who have already cast absentee ballots.
Republicans successfully got more voters to move to early voting sites -- only 8.3% of Trump voters planned to vote early during our early October survey.
Motivation to vote
Voters were asked to rank how likely they are to vote in the presidential election, on a scale from 1-10.
Both Harris and Trump voters are similarly motivated to vote, coming in with a score of 9.7.
Kennedy voters are motivated at a score of 9.1, while undecided voters had a score of 7.1.
Among both Harris and Trump voters, 97% said they’re definitely voting.
Most important issues
Here are the most important issues, according to Trump voters:
- 41.4%: Jobs and economy.
- 19.9%: Border and immigration.
- 7.9%: Inflation.
- 3%: Foreign policy.
Here are the most important issues, according to Harris voters:
- 22.9%: Abortion.
- 16.5%: Anti-Trump.
- 9.2%: Jobs and economy.
- 8.5%: Protecting democracy.
- 6.3%: Candidate morals.
- 4.2%: Inflation.
- 3.9%: Taxes and government spending.
Massive gender gap
The gender gap between voters is even more pronounced than in the early October survey.
Harris leads women by 24.4% -- 58.3%-33.9%. Her lead with women was 13.2% in early October.
Trump leads men by 19.9% -- 54.7%-33.8%. His lead with men was 9.5% in early October.
Harris is getting 34.8% of the male vote, while Trump is getting 33.9% of the female vote. Kennedy is getting 4.4% of the female vote and 2.9% of the male vote.
The survey found that 2024 represents the most gender-split election of our lifetimes, with “deep and sharp” differences between men and women.
College voters
College voters polled similarly in late October as they did early in the month.
Harris leads college voters by a margin of 14.8% -- 51.2%-36.4%. Trump leads non-college voters by a margin of 6.1% -- 49.2%-43.1%.
The difference is even more pronounced when split by high school diploma. Trump holds a 24.2% lead (58.4%-34.2%) among voters whose highest level of education is a high school diploma.
Harris has a 7.3% lead (49.3%-42%) among voters with some post high school education.
Live: Election Town Hall
At 12:30 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024, we‘re hosting a town hall discussion to address Michigan’s importance to the presidential race and go over other key races across the state, such as the Senate and House races.
You can watch that entire conversation live by clicking here or using the Local 4+ app.
Poll methodology
This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 News and the Detroit News. The Glengariff Group, Inc, conducted the statewide survey and included likely general election voters.
There were 600 people surveyed over the phone from Oct. 22-24, 2024. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4%, with a 95% level of confidence.
Of the respondents, 83.2% were contacted via cellphone and 16.8% were contacted via landline phone.
