ANN ARBOR, Mich. – After two years of influenza cases being kept largely at bay by the pandemic precautions, experts say several signs suggest we won’t be as lucky this year.
Case in point, the United States is already seeing a large spike in RSV in children.
Will that be the case with the flu too? We went to the Michigan Center for Respiratory Virus Research and Response -- better known as the “Flu Lab” -- at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health to find out.
Once inside, world renown influenza expert Dr. Arnold Monto was quick to remind us the flu is notoriously unpredictable.
“My crystal ball is broken. It’s not just cloudy, it’s broken,” chuckled Monto.
But he quickly turned serious, saying the potential for a big flu season is certainly there.
“That’s what we’re concerned about with flu because we really haven’t had very much flu in the last three years,” said Monto.
With fewer people recently exposed to the flu because of the Covid pandemic, the level of flu immunity in the community is lower.
That may be especially concerning for children said associate professor of epidemiology Dr. Emily Martin.
“We’re watching to see if the fact that we had a few mild flu years, or a year where we had no flu at all, means that we have kids that have more susceptibility than usual and they might be at a higher risk than they have been in previous years,” explained Martin.
The flu hit early and hard in Australia and other parts of the Southern Hemisphere. That can be a sign of things to come for the Northern Hemisphere. The dominant strain of flu in Australia was H3N2.
“This strain which we think is going to be the one that predominates this year is the one that really affects older people and puts them in the hospital, and even worse if they’re not vaccinated,” said Monto.
Inside the “Flu Lab,” researchers track which viruses are making people sick by testing samples from hospitals, doctors’ offices, daycares and households. They also study how effective flu vaccines are each year. They are one of just seven centers nationwide that provide that data to the CDC.
Their data from the outbreak on the University of Michigan campus last year was used to improve the flu vaccine this year.
“It’s directly related to the vaccine that everybody’s getting this year because it is based on what we learned in last year’s flu outbreak,” said Martin.
Both Monto and Martin worry about flu and Covid spreading at the same time.
“There is no reason why we can’t see a twindemic,” said Monto.
Monto says one of the biggest threats this flu season is people not getting vaccinated.
“We know there is vaccine fatigue, Covid fatigue and this is something we all have to work to overcome because it can spill over and has spilled over to the flu vaccine as well,” said Monto.
“The flu can be quite severe,” said Martin. “It causes tens of thousands of deaths. It causes tens to hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations, millions of doctor’s visits.”
Monto also stressed if you do get sick, it’s important to get tested quickly, especially if you are at higher risk from the flu or Covid. There are treatments available for both viruses, but the sooner you get them, the more effective they are.
“We just can’t become complacent because you never know who is going to be getting very sick,” said Monto.
As for that flu shot --
“Now is certainly the time to get it,” said Monto.