EXCLUSIVE: Presidential Election survey

DETROIT – Michigan's Presidential Election is scheduled for Nov. 6.

Ahead of election day The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a 600-sample survey of likely 2012 Michigan General Election voters.  The live operator telephone survey was conducted from August 18-20, 2012.  80% of the survey respondents were contact via land-line.  20% of survey respondents were contacted via cell phone.  The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence.  This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4, the Detroit News and WZZM. 

Here are the results:

Are you voting?

Thinking about the upcoming Presidential election in November, would you say are definitely voting, probably voting, probably not voting, definitely not voting, or would you say you have already voted absentee?

How is President Obama doing?

Would you say you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President of the United States? 

Is the nation on the right track?

Generally speaking would you say the nation is on the right track or would you say things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Who would you vote for?

If the election for President of the United States were held today and Barack Obama was the Democratic candidate and Mitt Romney was the Republican candidate, would you vote for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama to be President of the United States? 

President Barack Obama holds a 47.5%-42.0% lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, with 9.3% of voters undecided.  The race remains stuck with little movement since May 2012 when President Obama held a 45.1%-39.5% lead over Mitt Romney.

• Among male voters the race is statistically tied at 44.7% Barack Obama – 45.0%  Mitt Romney.
• Among female voters, Barack Obama holds a 50.4%-39.0% lead over Mitt Romney.  This 11.4% lead is statistically unchanged from a 12.0% lead in our May 2012 survey.
• Barack Obama holds a lead of 82.2%-8.8% among African American voters with 7.6% undecided.  Among Caucasian voters, Mitt Romney holds a 48.5%-40.8% lead with 9.7% undecided.
• Among voters aged 65 and older, the race is statistically tied at 43% Obama – 44% Romney. 
• Mitt Romney holds a narrow lead of 41.3%-38.7% among Independent voters.
• Among union households, Barack Obama holds a 55.5%-36.7% lead.  Among non union households, the candidates are tied with Barack Obama at 44.9% and Mitt Romney at 44.5%.
• Regionally, Barack Obama continues to hold a 47%-42% lead among Oakland County voters.  Mitt Romney leads in Macomb County by a margin of 46%-40%.  In Wayne County, non Detroit Barack Obama holds a strong 55.6%-32.8% lead.  And in the City of Detroit, Barack Obama holds an 85.0%-2.5% lead.

Romney's likability deficit

Respondents were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate. 

• By a margin of 47.5%-44.5%, voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama.
• By a margin of 38.3%-43.8%, voters have an unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney.

This favorability difference becomes more pronounced by gender.

• Men have an unfavorable impression of Barack Obama by a statistically tied 45.7%-46.7% and a favorable impression of Mitt Romney by a statistically tied margin of 43.3%-41.0%.
• But women have a favorable impression of Barack Obama by a margin of 49.3%-42.3 and a strongly unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney by a margin of 33.3%-46.7% -- a 13.4% negative margin.
• Amongst voters that are undecided in the presidential race, Barack Obama has an unfavorable impression of 30.4% favorable to 37.5% unfavorable.  38.3% of undecided voters have no opinion of Barack Obama.  Among these same voters, Mitt Romney has an unfavorable impression by a large margin of 19.6% favorable to 37.5% unfavorable.  41.1% of undecided voters have no opinion of Mitt Romney.

Who would you like to have dinner with?

Respondents were asked which candidate they would rather have dinner with and by a margin of 51.3%-31.3%, voters chose Barack Obama over Mitt Romney.  Republicans were the only demographic group that would prefer to have dinner with Mitt Romney over Barack Obama. 

The economy

Which candidate for President do you think would do a better job of handling our nation's economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? 

Respondents were asked a series of questions about which candidate would handle specific issues better and the economy continues to be Barack Obama's Achilles' heel.  Voters were statistically tied as to which candidate would do a better job handling the nation's economy with Mitt Romney at 45.8% to Barack Obama at 45.0%.

The automotive industry

Which candidate for President has a better plan for Michigan's automobile industry, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

When asked which candidate had a better plan for Michigan's automobile industry, Barack Obama held a 42.5%-32.2% lead over Mitt Romney with 12.2% saying "neither candidate".

Romney's Vice Presidential pick

Mitt Romney selected Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan to be his Vice Presidential nominee.  Does the selection of Paul Ryan make you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, more likely to vote for Barack Obama, or will the selection have no impact on how you vote for President?

Voter excitement level

Voters were asked on a scale of one to ten how excited they were to cast a ballot in this year's Presidential Election.  Overall, voters rated their excitement at 7.6.

• Strong Republicans and strong Democratic voters are equally motivated at 8.2.  At 7.8, leaning Republicans were more motivated than leaning Democratic voters who rated their excitement at 7.0. Independent voters were substantially less motivated at 6.7.
• At 8.3, African American voters are significantly more motivated than Caucasian voters at 7.6.  Wayne County voters were motivated at 8.0 and Detroit voters were motivated at 8.4.  The only region of the state more motivated to vote than Detroit voters were Southwest Michigan voters at 8.6.
• The least motivated voters were in the Tri Cities region (6.5), the Upper Peninsula and Northern Michigan (7.3) and the suburban rim around Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties (7.3). 

United States Senate Race

If the election for United States Senator was held today and Debbie Stabenow was the Democratic candidate and Pete Hoekstra was the Republican candidate, would you vote for Pete Hoekstra or Debbie Stabenow to be United States Senator for Michigan.

Michigan United States Senator Debbie Stabenow holds a 47.5%-40.3% lead over Republican challenger Pete Hoekstra. 

• Debbie Stabenow has 97% name identification breaking 40.3% favorable, 34.3% unfavorable and 22.3% of voters having no opinion of her.  2.7% of voters have not heard of Debbie Stabenow.
• Pete Hoekstra also has 84% name identification breaking 24.3% favorable, 25.5% unfavorable and 34.0% of voters having no opinion of him.  16.0% of voters have not heard of Pete Hoekstra.
• Two weeks after his primary victory, Pete Hoekstra has united the Republican Party with 88% of strong Republican voters supporting his candidacy and 75% of leaning Republicans supporting his candidacy.  By comparison, Debbie Stabenow has 86.6% of strong Democratic voters and 68% of leaning Democratic voters.  Stabenow leads among Independent voters by a margin of 49.3%- 33.4%.

 Stabenow as a U.S. Senator

Would you say you approve or disapprove of the job Debbie Stabenow is doing as United States Senator from Michigan? 

Looking ahead

Thursday on Local 4 News at 11 we'll release results of the survey which include Michigan ballot issues and how voters think Rick Snyder is performing as Michigan's Governor.