Michigan same-sex marriage: What's the Supreme Court deciding?

What is the Supreme Court deciding?

Within the next week, the Supreme Court will announce its ruling on DeBoer v. Snyder, the same-sex marriage case of April DeBoer and Jayne Rowse of Hazel Park. The case centers on the constitutionality of same-sex marriage bans in Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee.

What are the options for the Court?

OPTION 1: (At one end of the spectrum)  Rule against the ban on same sex marriage.

The simplest result is a decision to knock down the ban on same sex marriage currently in place in Michigan. The right to same-sex marriage would become law across America. A ruling that same-sex couples have a right to marry would invalidate all remaining anti-gay marriage laws across the country.

OPTION 2: (At the other end of the spectrum) Support state bans with regard to two questions.

1. Does a state have the right to ban same sex marriage?

2. Even if a state bans same-sex marriage, must it recognize valid same-sex marriages from other states?

If the court rules for the states on both questions, the bans in 14 states would stand. Some states that had their gay marriage bans struck down by federal courts might seek to reinstate prohibitions of gay and lesbian unions.  Questions would also arise about the validity of same-sex marriages that have already happened.

**Note  In Michigan, those same-sex marriages that took place on the one day that same- sex marriage was legal, could not be invalidated. Those marriages stand as legal no matter what the Supreme Court decides.

OPTION 3: A compromise decision

The Supreme Court could limit its ruling to allow the state ban in Michigan against same sex marriage to stand ... at the same time requiring the state to recognize same-sex unions legal in other states. Presumably, same sex couples could then get married in another state and then demand recognition of its legality in Michigan. This will invite a new wave of litigation.

OPTION 4: Send it back to the lower courts

The Supreme Court could agree with the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals. The four state lawsuits could be sent back to the lower courts. Same-sex marriage bans would remain in effect in Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky and Tennessee, and marriage bans could go back into effect in as many as 22 other states where federal judges struck them down.

Who Holds the Key On the Supreme Court?

Justice Anthony Kennedy appears to be the key to this vote. He tends to align with the conservative wing (a strong proponent of states' rights), but has also consistently ruled for gay rights.  Given this, he may position the Court on that middle ground position, hesitating to force states to grant same-sex marriages, but requiring them to recognize the validity of laws of other states. 

When the Supreme Court heard  United States v. Windsor in 2013,  Kennedy was the deciding voice in a 5-4 decision that struck down a key section of the law denying federal benefits to legally married gay and lesbian couples.

What happens in Michigan if the Court rules in favor of same sex marriage (knocking down the state ban)?

We would see an immediate rush to marriage for many same sex couples ... and also see  a renewed legal battle from opponents attempting to lessen the impact and scope of the Supreme Court's ruling.

Read: Michigan awaits gay marriage ruling

Special section: Special Section on Michigan same-sex marriage fight