Women running for Congress surged to big wins and Democrats smashed recent turnout levels in Texas’ first-in-the-nation 2018 primary elections, giving Republicans a potential glimpse of what’s ahead in the first midterms under President Donald Trump.
Energized and angry Democrats in Texas, where the GOP has dominated for decades, came out in force to surpass 1 million voters Tuesday — the first time the party has eclipsed that benchmark in a midterm primary since 2002, just months after the Sept. 11 attacks.
Equally striking was the showing by women on the ballot: Of the nearly 50 women running for Congress in Texas, more than half won their primaries outright or advanced to runoffs. What’s more, at least three of those runoffs in May will feature women going head-to-head, including a key race for Democrats in their bid to take control of the U.S. House this fall.
“It’s Trump. It’s Trump,” said Veronica Escobar, who won her Democratic primary and is now poised to become one of the first Hispanic women to represent Texas in Congress.
“I’ve spoken to innumerable senior citizens, retirees, parents of disabled children, people who understand what this administration means to their families. And they’re afraid.”
Not all women fared so well. Kathaleen Wall, a Republican megadonor in Houston who pumped $6 million of her own money into her race for Congress, failed to survive a crowded nine-person field despite outspending all other candidates and having the backing of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.
Wall’s failure was also a potential warning sign of the limits of Republicans going all-in on Trump this election year. She partly staked her candidacy on TV ads that told voters there was little daylight between her and the president, who remains popular among GOP voters despite his rough edges and low approval ratings nationwide.
For all the talk of renewed Democratic energy heading into the 2018 midterms, Texas Republicans also set a new benchmark for turnout in a midterm election.
More than 1.5 million people voted Tuesday in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, won by incumbent Ted Cruz. That beats the previous record of 1.48 million in 2010, during former President Barack Obama’s first term.
Democrats showed up despite the long odds this November of ousting Republicans such as Cruz — who released a radio ad after clinching the GOP nomination Tuesday night, telling voters that Democratic opponent Beto O’Rourke “wants to take our guns.”
O’Rourke, a congressman from El Paso, has called for banning AR-15-style assault rifles in wake of last month’s mass shooting at a Florida high school that killed 17 people.
Neither that tragedy nor a mass shooting at a Texas church last fall played as dominant campaign issues in Texas, but with the GOP’s majority in Congress on the line this fall, Democrats showed up.
Democrats have their sights on flipping three GOP-controlled congressional seats in Texas that backed Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016, including a Houston district where liberal favorite Laura Moser forced a runoff with Lizzie Pannill Fletcher. Another is a sprawling district that runs along the Texas-Mexico border, where Gina Ortiz-Jones advanced to a May runoff and another woman, Judy Canales, was battling to join her.
“I think that a Congress that is only 20 percent women is not where we need to be,” Ortiz Jones said. “This is not a spectator sport. We’ve got to participate, all of us and that’s what’s important.”
College students waited more than an hour to vote in liberal Austin and rural counties offered Democratic candidates for the first time in years. Many women ran in a record eight open congressional races this year in Texas — two of which are up for grabs after longtime GOP incumbents abandoned plans for re-election amid scandal.
While 2002 was a high water mark for Democratic turnout in Texas it also showed the limits of the exuberance for turning the state blue. In November that year, the Democrats running for statewide office were all beaten, just as they have been since 1994.
For Republicans, the primary was a vivid exhibition of the Trump effect in GOP politics. George P. Bush, the Texas land commissioner, won a contested primary after he cozied-up to a president who once called his dad, Jeb, a pathetic person.
Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016. It was the smallest margin of victory by a Republican presidential candidate in Texas in 20 years, but Cruz dismissed talk of a Democratic takeover this fall.
“Left-wing rage may raise a bunch of money from people online, but I don’t believe it reflects the views of a majority of Texans,” he told reporters after winning the nomination.
Democrats will have a tough time winning statewide races in November despite the “Trump effect” because they have fielded little-known candidates against top Republicans, such as Republican Gov. Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Even Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has been indicted on felony securities fraud charges, clinched his party’s nomination unopposed.
Abbott will face either Lupe Valdez, who was Texas’ first Hispanic, lesbian sheriff, or Andrew White, who opposes abortion and whose father, Mark, was governor in the 1980s.
Follow the latest Texas Primary Election Results from news sources below:
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Here's a closer look at the six races to watch tonight:
Family legacy on the line: Incumbent Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush -- the son of Jeb Bush and the last Bush in political office -- faces a primary challenge from former land commissioner Jerry Patterson. This is a race over the Alamo: Patterson has campaigned against what he calls Bush's failed stewardship of the site of the historic battle.
Progressives vs. Establishment: It was already a bare-knuckled brawl among the seven Democrats vying to take on Republican Rep. John Culberson in Texas' 7th House District. Then the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee got involved, dropping a bomb on one of the candidates, Laura Moser,a candidate backed by Bernie Sanders' allies, and turning the race into something of a proxy for the larger war within the party. Emily's List-backed lawyer Lizzie Pannill Fletcher and attorney Alex Triantaphyllis are other candidates to watch in a race that could be headed for a runoff.
Take a closer look at that race here.
Border district brawl: Party figures have split over this contest to take on GOP Rep. Will Hurd in the 23rd House District between Iraq War veteran Gina Ortiz Jones, former federal prosecutor Jay Hulings and former Agriculture Department official Judy Canales.
Democrats fight for Dallas: The third competitive Republican-held seat in Texas' 32nd District is represented by Republican Pete Sessions. The Democrats vying to replace him are former NFL player and attorney Colin Allred, former Agriculture Department official Lillian Salerno and former State Department official Ed Meier.
Who will take on Abbott: Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke, running to oppose Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, is the statewide headliner for Democrats this cycle. But Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is up for re-election as well, and former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez and businessman Andrew White are vying to take him on.
An interesting split: The campaign to replace retiring Rep. Gene Green in the reliably blue 29th District has seen an interesting split between Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who is backing Tahir Javed, and Emily's List and the other New York senator, Kirsten Gillibrand, who are backing state Sen. Sylvia Green.
Democrats hopeful as Texas opens midterm primary season
Texas Democrats turned out in force ahead of the first-in-the-nation primary Tuesday in what could be an early hint of a midterm election backlash against President Donald Trump, but their party remains a longshot to make much of a dent in Republican political dominance of the state.
Democratic early voting across Texas’ 15 most-populous counties, the only figures available, more than doubled that of the last non-presidential cycle in 2014, while the number of Republican early ballots cast increased only slightly. Total Democratic early votes exceeded Republican ones roughly 465,000 to 420,000, though those figures combined accounted for less than 9 percent of the state’s total registered voters.
Democrats haven’t won any of Texas’ 29 statewide offices since 1994, the nation’s longest losing streak. That’s expected to continue this cycle despite any possible “Trump effect” because Democrats fielded little-known candidates against top Republicans such as Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Even Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has been indicted on felony securities fraud charges, remains favored for re-election.
A record six Texas Republicans and two Democrats are leaving Congress, meaning the state will be losing clout on key House committees. But none of those open seats are expected to flip. They’ve drawn so many hopefuls from each party, that most primary races won’t have anyone winning a majority of Tuesday’s votes, meaning runoff elections May 22 will determine who will be on November’s general election ballot.
Democrats have a better shot in November of unseating three Republican congressional incumbents — Rep. Pete Sessions in Dallas, Rep. John Culberson in Houston and Rep. Will Hurd in a district stretching hundreds of miles from San Antonio to El Paso. Hillary Clinton beat Trump in all three districts in 2016, but primary runoffs are likely in each of those races.
One of the Democrats leaving his House seat, former punk rock guitarist Beto O’Rourke, has generated national buzz in his uphill bid against Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. Neither faced serious primary challengers but O’Rourke has outraised Cruz and the incumbent has warned conservatives against complacency, suggesting that liberals will “crawl over broken glass in November to vote,” against Trump and the GOP.
The Democrats have had their own internal strife in Texas over congressional hopeful Laura Moser, who moved from Washington to her native Houston to try and unseat Culberson. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, fearing Moser may be too liberal to win the general election, blistered her for comments from a 2014 Washingtonian magazine article in which Moser said she’d “rather have her teeth pulled out” than live in rural Paris, Texas. Strategists will be watching if she advances to a runoff despite attacks from fellow Democrats.
Despite that, Texas Democratic Party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa has remained optimistic, noting that Trump beat Clinton by fewer than 10 percentage points in Texas in 2016, the smallest margin of victory for a Republican White House candidate since 1996.
“Texas is the fastest growing state in the country, we’re getting younger and increasingly diverse,” Hinojosa said. “These demographic shifts are a positive trendline for a big-tent progressive political party.”
Republican political consultant Derek Ryan noted that only about 3 percent of those casting ballots early in the Democratic primary were first-time voters, meaning most Texans participating “were probably voting Democrat in general elections in previous cycles.”
“Three percent, that could make a difference in some smaller races, but in a statewide election I don’t think that’s enough to sway anything,” Ryan said. “Democrats are showing up in the primary election, does that mean more are going to show up in the general election?”
A close Republican primary race Tuesday could be for land commissioner, where George P. Bush was the first member of his family to win his first election four years ago but drew an unlikely challenger in Jerry Patterson, a former Bush supporter who preceded him as land commissioner.
Another key contest is the Democratic gubernatorial primary, where the top two contenders in a crowded field are former Dallas County Sherriff Lupe Valdez, backed by the party’s establishment, and Andrew White, who opposes abortion and whose father, Mark, was governor in the 1980s. Neither White nor Valdez may win a majority of Tuesday’s votes, though.
Abbott has an eye-popping $43 million in campaign cash, tops among gubernatorial hopefuls nationwide, and isn’t expected to be seriously challenged by any Democrat. Instead, he’s focused on attempting to unseat members of his own party, endorsing the Republican primary challengers to three state House incumbents who backed past ethics reform measures that might have limited gubernatorial power. That includes state Rep. Sarah Davis, a suburban Houston Republican who supports abortion rights.
Davis counters that her district’s residents “will not be told for whom to vote.”