Despite previous reports that Michiganders could catch a glimpse of the Northern Lights this week, the latest forecast says otherwise.
It’s not likely the colorful sky show will be visible in Michigan -- or really anywhere in the continental U.S. -- this week. The Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks had forecast auroral activity on Thursday, July 13, but the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center says the aurora’s strength will actually be too weak over the next few days for us to see it.
Experts measure the level of geomagnetic activity using the planetary K index, also called Kp, which ranges from 0-9, with zero representing the lowest activity. Higher geomagnetic activity means the Northern Lights will be more active and more visible from further away.
On Wednesday, July 12, the Kp is at 3 -- which is still quite low. For a 0-2 Kp, the “aurora will be far north, quite dim in intensity, and not very active,” according to the SPWC. Once the Kp reaches the 3-5 range, the Northern Lights will spread further from the North Pole, and will be brighter with “more auroral activity (motion and formations).” However, 3 Kp is still at the low end of that range.
Unfortunately for us in the Great Lakes State, the Kp is expected to be low through the end of the week, with a “weak” Kp forecast for July 12-14, at least. This means the aurora will really only be visible in Canada, especially the northern regions closer to the pole.
Experts say that in order for the Northern Lights to stretch far enough to be seen in Michigan, the K index will have to be around 6 or 7 -- the same goes for auroral viewing anywhere along the northern edge of the U.S. When the Kp reaches stronger levels of 8 and 9, the aurora can potentially be seen in the longitudinal center of the country.
Here’s the Northern Lights forecast for the nights of Wednesday, July 12, and Thursday, July 13:
What are the Northern Lights?
The bright dancing lights of the aurora are actually collisions between electrically charged particles from the sun that enter the earth’s atmosphere. The lights are seen above the magnetic poles of the northern and southern hemispheres.
They are known as “aurora borealis” in the north and “aurora australis” in the south. Auroral displays appear in many colors, although pale green and pink are the most common. Shades of red, yellow, green, blue, and violet have been reported.
The lights appear in many forms from patches or scattered clouds of light to streamers, arcs, rippling curtains or shooting rays that light up the sky with an eerie glow.
Learn more about how to view the aurora on the SPWC’s website here.