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How likely are you to actually win the $900M Powerball jackpot?

So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

Blank forms for the Powerball lottery sit in a bin at a local grocery store, in Des Moines, Iowa. After nearly four months without a big winner, the Powerball jackpot has climbed to an estimated $620 million. That makes it the 10th largest U.S. lottery prize ahead of Saturday, Oct. 2, 2021, night's drawing. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall) (Charlie Neibergall, Copyright 2021 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

The Powerball jackpot soared to $900 million on Sunday after no winning ticket was sold in the latest drawing.

If you’re anything like me, a number like that immediately makes me think of what I could do with just half of that amount of money. Even after hearing the odds of winning are 1 in 292.2 million, one of my first thoughts is “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

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Obviously the odds are low, but how can we put that into perspective? Such massive numbers are difficult to even comprehend.

Well for starters, Encyclopedia Britannica says you are nearly 20 thousand times more likely to be struck by lightning than win the jackpot. Take a look at Roy C. Sullivan, the ex-park ranger was struck seven times in his life.

Guinness World Records reported Sullivan was struck for the first time in April 1942 at Shenandoah National Park where he was left with scorch marks across his leg. After being struck again in 1969 and 1970, another bolt struck Sullivan in April 1972 - maybe to mark 30 years since his first. The 1972 incident set his hair on fire, which was burned by other strikes in 1973 and 1976. Even more amazing, Sullivan’s wife was also struck while in the couple’s backyard.

I haven’t seen any reports that the Sullivans ever won the lottery.

How many people do you know who are identical twins? It’s rare, but not shocking with it happening once in every 250 pregnancies.

But I’d be willing to bet my $900 million that no one reading this knows, or is, a quintuplet -- that is being one of five children born to the same mom during one birth. Still, being a quintuplet is six times more likely than winning the $900 million.

It would be smarter to bet on the Lions winning the Super Bowl next year, which is 117,000 times more likely to happen at +2500 odds. Even before their hot streak last season, when their record was 1-6, the Lions’ odds to make the playoffs were still far higher at 1 percent.

Have you ever wanted to take a trip to space? I don’t mean to crush any dreams here -- after all, you have better odds of doing that than winning the Powerball -- it’s just that only 12 out of over 18,300 applicants were selected into NASA’s 2017 astronaut class, for reference. Even then, each candidate needed a bachelor’s or master’s degree in a STEM field and two years of training before being assigned to a mission. But if you win the money, you may be able to spend just $450,000 of it on a ticket off of Earth.

Here’s one for anyone who has ever played a Pokémon game. The chances of finding a shiny Pokémon, a type of Pokémon with different colors than usual, begin at 1 in 8,192, or over 35 thousand times more likely. In my more than 17 years of on-and-off playing, I’ve only ever encountered one shiny Pokémon. That includes games like “Pokémon Go” where odds of finding a shiny Pokémon are as low as 1 in 62.5. My brother, who has played as long as I have, has never seen any.

But 1 in 62.5 isn’t all that rare, so maybe he should keep looking. Plus, like winning the lottery, there’s always a chance.


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