4Warn Weather – Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center offer a glance at the temperature and precipitation to expect as we close out 2023.
As of right now, for Metro Detroit, we are looking at a warmer-than-average three-month period from October to December, and then a drier-than-average period from October to December as well.
The three-month temperature and precipitation estimates from the Climate Prediction Center show the following:
- Temperature: Above average temperatures are anticipated for the western part of the United States, down through the Gulf Coast, and then into most of Michigan and into the Northeastern United States, this does include Metro Detroit.
- Precipitation: The wetter-than-average forecast looks to be maintained down over the southern United States and Gulf Coast, while the below-average precipitation looks to be confined to the Pacific Northwest, and then also for part of the Great Lakes -- including most of Michigan.
Here’s a look at the average monthly temperature, precipitation, and snowfall expected in Metro Detroit:
| Month | Average monthly temperature | Average monthly precipitation | Average monthly snowfall |
|---|---|---|---|
| October | 62 degrees | 2.53 inches | 0 inches |
| November | 48.6 degrees | 2.57 inches | 1.9 inches |
| December | 37.2 degrees | 2.55 inches | 8.9 inches |
It looks like at the start, we may not see any real initial signs of winter with the warmer and drier forecast over the next three months.
---> Michigan winter outlook: How El Niño could impact snow, cold
We also need to look at the first freeze dates for Metro Detroit, which will happen sooner rather than later. The first freeze is defined as the first date with a minimum temperature (overnight low) that is lower than 32 degrees.
The earliest freeze on record happened in Metro Detroit on Sept. 22, 1974. The latest freeze happened on Nov. 15, 1946. The 30-year-average first freeze is October 25. The first freeze of last year happened on Nov. 13, 2022.