You can’t escape the Christmas decorations when you go to the store these days.
It’s a sure sign that winter is just around the corner, so it’s not too early to start looking ahead to what is shaping up to possibly be a much different winter in Metro Detroit this year compared to last year. What does that mean?
Well last winter was dominated by El Niño and ended up being the warmest on record. But this year, a weak La Niñas expected to develop. We haven’t shifted into a La Niña pattern yet, but there is a 60% chance of it arriving by November and possibly lasting through early Spring which will have an impact on temperatures and precipitation.
It’s important to point out, that La Niña is a natural climate pattern, and its effects are more noticeable in the winter months for our region. Typically, a La Niña would bring us above average precipitation and near average temperatures.
However, there is a little difference in what the seasonal outlook projects from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). On par with La Niña, it looks like we will see an overall pattern of wetter weather. The difference lies in the temperature.
The CPC is forecasting a slightly warmer than average winter. The warmth last winter had a significant effect on our snowfall or lack thereof. We will have to wait and see if the temperatures result in rainfall or snowfall this winter.
It’s still unclear just how strong La Niña will get and that certainly matters. The weaker it is, then it is up against other weather and climate factors that could end up having a more dominating impact.
For example, while snowstorms that impact the entire region seem to be decreasing, lake-effect snowfall is increasing around the Great Lakes and that can be linked to the lack of ice cover on the lakes throughout the winter with the warmer winter temperatures we have been experiencing.
How does all of this compare to the Farmer’s Almanac? The 208th Edition of the almanac says Michigan should prepare for a “Wet, Winter Whirlwind” during the 2024-2025 winter season. While the Almanac claims an 80% accuracy rate, studies show it is only 52% accurate. You can be the judge!
No two La Niña winters are the same, but many have temperature and precipitation trends in common due to the behavior of the jet stream.