Hurricane Helene is advancing across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida and threatening a “catastrophic” storm surge in northwestern parts of the state.

Helene races toward Florida as forecasters warn of ‘catastrophic’ storm surge

Heather Hollingsworth And Stephen Smith with the Associated Press

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Hurricane Helene could cause a “nightmare” scenario of catastrophic storm surge in northwestern Florida, officials warned Thursday as they urged residents to heed evacuation orders ahead of the Category 2 storm, which is expected to cause significant damage hundreds of miles inland across much of the southeastern U.S.

Helene was upgraded Thursday morning to a Category 2 storm and is expected to be a major hurricane — meaning a Category 3 or higher — when it makes landfall on Florida’s northwestern coast Thursday evening. Tropical storm force winds already started hitting the state in advance. Hurricane warnings and flash flood warnings extended far beyond the coast up into south-central Georgia, as forecasters warned of tornadoes, damaging winds, rains and flash floods. The governors of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia have all declared emergencies in their states, as did President Joe Biden for several of the states.

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Thursday morning that models suggest Helene will make landfall further east, lessening the chances for a direct hit on the capital city of Tallahassee, whose metro area has a population of around 395,000.

The shift has the storm aimed squarely at the sparsely-populated Big Bend area, home to fishing villages and vacation hideaways where Florida’s Panhandle and peninsula meet. Shuttered gas stations dotted the two-lane highway, their windows boarded up with plywood.

Philip Tooke, a commercial fisherman who took over the business his father founded near the region’s Apalachee Bay, plans to ride out this storm like he did during Hurricane Michael and the others – on his boat. “This is what pays my bills,” Tooke said of his boats. “If I lose that, I don’t have anything.”

Many, though, were heeding the mandatory evacuation orders that stretched from the Panhandle south along the Gulf Coast in low-lying areas around Tallahassee, Gainesville, Cedar Key, Lake City, Tampa and Sarasota.

Among them was Sharonda Davis, one of several gathered at a Tallahassee shelter worried their mobile homes wouldn’t withstand the winds. She said the hurricane’s size is “scarier than anything because it’s the aftermath that we’re going to have to face.”

Federal authorities were staging search-and-rescue teams as the National Weather Service office in Tallahassee forecast storm surges of up to 20 feet (6 meters) and warned they could be particularly “catastrophic and unsurvivable” in Apalachee Bay. It added that high winds and heavy rains also posed risks.

“Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously!” the office said, describing the surge scenario as “a nightmare.”

This stretch of Florida known as the Forgotten Coast has been largely spared by the widespread condo development and commercialization that dominates so many of Florida’s beach communities. The region is loved for its natural wonders — the vast stretches of salt marshes, tidal pools and barrier islands; the dwarf cypress trees of Tate’s Hell State Forest; and Wakulla Springs, considered one of the world’s largest and deepest freshwater springs.

Anthony Godwin, 20, found one gas station outside Crawfordville where the tanks were still running Thursday morning to fill up before heading west toward his sister’s house in Pensacola.

“It’s a part of life. You live down here, you run the risk of losing everything to a bad storm,” said Godwin, who lives about a half-mile (800 meters) from the water in the coastal town of Panacea. During Hurricane Michael in 2018, Godwin said the water came up to the end of the driveway of his family’s home.

Along Florida’s Gulf Coast, school districts and multiple universities have canceled classes. Airports in Tampa, Tallahassee and Clearwater were closed Thursday, while cancellations were widespread elsewhere in the state and beyond.

Helene was about 255 miles (405 kilometers) southwest of Tampa on Thursday morning and moving north-northeast at 14 mph (22 kph) with top sustained winds of 105 mph (165 kph). Forecasters said it should become a Category 3 or higher hurricane, meaning winds would top 110 mph (177 kph).

While Helene will likely weaken as it moves inland, damaging winds were expected to extend to the southern Appalachian Mountains, where landslides were possible, forecasters said. The center posted lesser tropical storm warnings as far north as North Carolina, and warned that much of the region could experience prolonged power outages and flooding.

Helene had swamped parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, flooding streets and toppling trees as it passed offshore and brushed the resort city of Cancun.

The storm formed Tuesday in the Caribbean Sea. In western Cuba, Helene knocked out power to more than 200,000 homes and businesses as it brushed past the island.

Helene is forecast to be one of the largest storms in breadth in years to hit the region, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. He said since 1988, only three Gulf hurricanes were bigger than Helene’s predicted size: 2017′s Irma, 2005′s Wilma and 1995′s Opal.

Areas 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of the Georgia-Florida line can expect hurricane conditions. More than half of Georgia’s public school districts and several universities canceled classes.

For Atlanta, Helene could be the worst strike on a major Southern inland city in 35 years, said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd.

More than 200 miles (320 kilometers) to the south, near Valdosta, Georgia, Joe Overby boarded up a storage building as he prepared to ride out the hurricane, eying his oaks that were damaged last year by Idalia. “I’m afraid this time they’re going to come down,” Overby said.

Helene is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year because of record-warm ocean temperatures.

In further storm activity, Tropical Storm Isaac formed Wednesday in the Atlantic and was expected to strengthen as it moves eastward across the open ocean, possibly becoming a hurricane by the end of the week, forecasters said. Officials said its swells and winds could affect parts of Bermuda and eventually the Azores by the weekend.

In the Pacific, former Hurricane John reformed Wednesday as a tropical storm and strengthened Thursday morning back into a hurricane as it threatened areas of Mexico’s western coast with flash flooding and mudslides. Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador raised John’s death toll to five Thursday as the communities along the country’s Pacific coast prepared for the storm to make a second landfall.

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Hollingsworth reported from Kansas City, Missouri. Associated Press journalists Seth Borenstein in New York; Jeff Amy in Atlanta; Danica Coto in San Juan, Puerto Rico; Andrea Rodríguez in Havana; Mark Stevenson and María Verza in Mexico City; and Claire Rush in Portland, Oregon, contributed to this report.