DETROIT – If you’ve been following our online and on-air forecasts all week long the Local4Casters have been telling you about Saturday night’s cold front.
And yes, there’s a little football game to be played at The Big House Saturday night, and the weather could get very nasty for part of it. I’ll get to that in a moment.
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Tonight will feature nothing violent…just scattered light showers, with lows in the low 60s (17 degrees Celsius).
Any lingering showers early Saturday morning…most of them should be gone by then, with just a few final stragglers…should end by mid-morning, with skies becoming partly cloudy by afternoon. It’ll also become quite windy, with south winds of 20 to 25 mph likely developing once that sun comes out. Highs will soar into the low 80s (28 degrees Celsius), and possibly warmer if the sun comes out earlier than expected. If you’ll be tailgating in Ann Arbor, make sure you batten down the hatches and are prepared for that wind.
Saturday’s sunrise is at 7:37 a.m., and Saturday’s sunset is at 7:04 p.m.
Michigan-Michigan State game
Saturday evening in Ann Arbor could become problematic. Conditions will still be balmy and windy through kickoff at 7:30 p.m., and I think we’ll remain dry for most of the game. Today’s high resolution computer models, however, bring that cold front through Ann Arbor either very late in the game, or just after the game when people are heading back to their cars and dorms.
A narrow band of rain will develop ahead of the front, possible with some lightning. Wind aloft is going to be very strong…60-70 mph just 5000 feet above the ground. A thunderstorm doesn’t have to be severe to tap into that wind. In fact, it doesn’t even have to be a thunderstorm: ordinary rain showers without lighting can pull that wind down to the surface, too.
I strongly urge you to have the Local4Casters weather app on your phone, and check it often during the game. Just search under “WDIV” in the app store and download it for free. When you open the app, it opens right to the radar page…you’ll want to monitor that narrow line of showers and possible thunderstorms, especially during the second half (and remember that you can pan and zoom the radar page with your fingers so you get any perspective you want).
If you are going to the game, you certainly don’t want to be caught walking to your car when that front approaches.
In fact, if the rain is successful in transporting that wind aloft down to the surface, then it’s even possible that severe thunderstorm warnings will be issued by the National Weather Service. Here’s how I see the tailgating and game conditions shaping up right now:
If the front with that band of rain arrives just after the game, you may want to consider waiting on the concourse under cover until it passes by before you head to the car. VERY IMPORTANT: No meteorologist in the world can time this cold front 36 hours in advance within a half-hour. This is my best evaluation based upon the data that I have available to me through mid-afternoon and, believe me, I’ve scoured it all. Any slight deviation either earlier or later will have significant ramifications to both the game, and your exposure to the elements if you’ll be at the game…some could be positive, and some could be very, very negative. The Local4Casters will keep you constantly updated both on ClickOnDetroit.com and on Local 4.
Sunday could start with some residual clouds behind the Saturday night cold front, but mostly sunny skies should develop and turn this into another great Pure Michigan fall weekend day. Highs in the mid 70s (25 degrees Celsius).
Columbus Day looks partly cloudy, as the moisture from Hurricane Nate (more on that below) tracks up the Ohio Valley region. It appears that most of that moisture will stay to our south, with perhaps just partial cloud cover lapping across the state line, but any deviation northward would bring more clouds our way. But right now, it looks like a nice day if you have the holiday off, with highs in the mid 70s (25 degrees Celsius).
The remainder of the week looks dry, with just a shower chance on Wednesday the way things look right now.
Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate is moving just west of north, and should pass east of Cancun tonight on its way northward into the Gulf of Mexico, where very warm waters and low wind shear should allow the storm to strengthen into Category 1 hurricane status. The forecast track remains unchanged, with Nate making landfall in southeast Louisiana late Saturday into Saturday night, tracking northeastward across Alabama, and farther northeastward from there. Although Nata will quickly weaken back to a tropical storm, and then a tropical depression, a swath of heavy rain will accompany its path across the mid-south.
As always, the right side of the hurricane is normally the most dangerous, as this is where its strongest winds are, and where the winds are blowing ocean water toward the shoreline. That surge of water, combined with torrential rainfall, will cause considerable damage. And always remember: 90% of all fatalities from Atlantic Basin hurricanes result from water, not wind. The Florida Panhandle is particularly susceptible to storm surge impacts, so the Local4Casters will be monitoring Nate’s path very carefully.