DETROIT – What will the Detroit Tigers’ starting lineup look like on Opening Day after their blockbuster trade for outfielder Austin Meadows?
A lot has changed since we posted our first lineup prediction two weeks ago. The bad news: Star prospect Riley Greene suffered a foot injury that will keep him out for around two months. The good news: Al Avila landed a bonafide power bat to the heart of the order.
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Based on what we’ve seen from A.J. Hinch in spring training and the skill sets of the players Avila has brought in, here’s what the Opening Day lineup card might look like:
1. Akil Baddoo, CF
Spring training stats: .267 batting average/.290 on-base percentage/.667 slugging percentage, 3 home runs, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts.
This one is pretty self-explanatory. Baddoo has 30 at-bats this spring, and 27 of them (all but one game) have come out of the leadoff spot.
Baddoo is an exciting leadoff option because throughout his minor league career -- and during parts of his rookie season -- he showed an advanced understanding of the strike zone for someone who had never played above A-ball.
But this spring has been a struggle in that regard. Baddoo has struck out 10 times and drawn only one walk in 31 plate appearances. It’s only spring training, but he’ll need to get on base more regularly to hold onto the top spot in the order.
2. Jeimer Candelario, 3B
Spring training stats: .233/.281/.433, 1 home run, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts.
It hasn’t been a great spring training for Candelario, but 30 at-bats means very little compared to 200 full games as the team’s best hitter.
Candelario led MLB with 42 doubles last season and paired it with a .351 OBP. That’s after he broke out with a .369 OBP and .872 OPS during the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
When the Tigers traded for Candelario, he was a top 100 prospect with excellent on-base skills and decent power -- that’s exactly what he’s become at the major-league level. With an oWAR (offensive wins above replacement) of 4.1 in 2021, he more than earned a shot at the most important spot in the lineup.
3. Javier Baez, SS
Spring training stats: .219/.242/.344, 0 home runs, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts.
Baez is the type of player who thrives off of big moments. He loves to channel his energy and emotions into every facet of the game -- offense, defense and base running.
So it’s no surprise that Tigers fans haven’t seen the best of Baez during meaningless spring training games. Everyone knows Baez can hit for power and run the bases at an elite level. The fact that he’s only struck out six times in 32 plate appearances is an excellent sign for a player whose main offensive weakness is swinging and missing.
Hinch has penciled Baez into the No. 3 hole in 11 of his 12 spring training games, so it’s pretty clear where he likes the new Tigers’ shortstop.
4. Austin Meadows, LF
Spring training stats: .217/.280/.304, 0 home runs, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts.
Detroit’s lineup certainly improved this offseason, but it still lacked a true power threat. Until Monday night.
Meadows hit 27 home runs in 2021 and 33 home runs in 2019 (the most recent full season before 2021). He hit 29 doubles in both of those campaigns.
He’s not a plus defensively, but Meadows gives the Tigers an above-average runner and someone who could lead the team in home runs, if healthy.
The majority of his at-bats with the Rays this spring came in the cleanup spot, and that’s where he hit most often last season, as well. This one seems like a no-brainer.
5. Robbie Grossman, RF
Spring training stats: .188/.229/.375, 2 home runs, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts.
Hinch definitely has a decision to make between Grossman and Candelario in the No. 2 hole. Grossman was a few percentage points better in terms of OBP last season, but Candelario was definitely the better all-around hitter.
Last season, the Tigers’ No. 2 slot came to the plate 721 times, while the No. 5 slot did so just 662 times. Whoever Hinch puts second will receive around 9% more at-bats than the player hitting fifth -- a very significant difference.
As good as Grossman was in 2021, Candelario should get those extra plate appearances, and the Tigers can enjoy the luxury of having a guy who hit 23 home runs and stole 20 bases in the No. 5 hole, driving in Meadows and Baez.
6. Miguel Cabrera, DH
Spring training stats: .240/.296/.400, 1 home run, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts.
It sounds like sixth is as low as Hinch is willing to go with the future Hall of Famer, and that’s better than sticking him in the heart of the order no matter the production.
Cabrera is mostly a singles hitter who clogs up the base paths at this point in his career. His best WAR in the past four seasons was 0.2, meaning he’s basically replacement level -- with an offensive output that isn’t much better.
There’s value in having Cabrera in the locker room with Spencer Torkelson and the other young players, but barring a Joey Votto-like resurgence, he won’t provide much at the plate.
7. Spencer Torkelson, 1B
Spring training stats: .267/.395/.500, 1 home run, 7 walks, 21 strikeouts.
Finally, someone who’s having a well-rounded spring.
Torkelson has struck out in about one-third of his plate appearances, but that’s been a trend every time he’s been promoted within the organization. His next step is typically to figure everything out and mash -- a trend that’s already started to happen over the past week.
Hinch is keeping Torkelson low in the lineup and will likely continue to do so at the start of the regular season. But don’t expect to see the top-five prospect in the bottom third for very long.
8. Jonathan Schoop, 2B
Spring training stats: .154/.267/.269, 1 home run, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts.
If you’re searching for one sign of how much the Tigers’ lineup has improved this season, look no further than Schoop.
He was the best hitter on the team during some stretches of last season and finished with 22 home runs, 30 doubles and a .755 OPS. Yet this year, he’s destined to hit in the bottom third of the lineup.
Schoop got off to a miserable start last season but still found a way to finish with solid numbers. He’s streaky, but when Schoop is hot, he can carry an offense. When he’s cold, it’s much less damaging from the No. 8 hole than all the way up at No. 2 (where he took 70% of his plate appearances in 2021).
9. Tucker Barnhart, C
Spring training stats: .087/.192/.130, 0 home runs, 3 walks, 2 strikeouts.
The Tigers traded for Barnhart because he’s a great defensive catcher and knows how to handle a pitching staff. Any offense he provides will be a bonus.
Barnhart owns a career .324 OBP and doesn’t strike out very often, so he’s a fine No. 9 hitter, especially for a catcher. He has graded out above replacement level offensively every year since his rookie season, and that’s more than we could say about many recent No. 9 hitters in Detroit (and, frankly, many six, seven and eight hitters, too).
If and when Eric Haase starts at catcher against left-handed pitching, the lineup will gain another true power threat. But Barnhart will be the primary option behind the dish.
