DETROIT – It’s the best day of the year: Opening Day. No more exhibition games or squabbling about rule changes -- just seven straight months of meaningful baseball.
With no infield shift, a pitch clock, and base running tweaks, America’s Past-time will look quite a bit different this season. It’s also been a busy offseason of superstars switching teams, including Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Justin Verlander, and Jacob deGrom.
Can owner Steve Cohen buy the New York Mets a World Series? Will Aaron Judge come anywhere close to repeating his 62-homer season? How will Japanese stars Kodai Senga and Masataka Yoshida fare in their first taste of MLB action?
There are so many great players and storylines to follow as this 2023 season gets underway. Here are my predictions for the regular season.
AL East
- New York Yankees
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Boston Red Sox
- Baltimore Orioles
Yankees fans were restless this offseason as most of the top free agents decided to sign elsewhere. But they landed the most important player in the class when they retained Judge.
Preseason injuries to Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino has brought the pitching staff into question, but there aren’t many great starting staffs in the AL East, so the Yankees should be fine.
Toronto and Tampa Bay will both be playoff contenders with a chance to surprise the Yankees atop the division, if everything goes right.
I know the Orioles are a fun sleeper pick this season after what they did in 2022, but teams that improve so dramatically in one season don’t have a great track record of success in the following year (especially when their Opening Day starter is Kyle Gibson).
Boston is extremely interesting. If Chris Sale can stay healthy and Yoshida transitions to MLB well, the Red Sox could be a sneaky contender. If not, last place is a legit possibility.
AL Central
- Cleveland Guardians
- Chicago White Sox
- Minnesota Twins
- Kansas City Royals
- Detroit Tigers
The Guardians are an obvious favorite to repeat as AL Central champs, thanks to a deep lineup and an excellent bullpen. Jose Ramirez is one of the best players in the world, and Cleveland has now surrounded him with budding stars in Andres Gimenes and Steven Kwan,
Josh Bell was an underrated offseason signing to add more power to the heart of Cleveland’s lineup, and don’t sleep on Oscar Gonzalez, either.
How good is the starting rotation behind Shane Bieber, especially now that Triston McKenzie is starting the season on the injured list? That will be what determines if the Guardians run away with the Central, or if the White Sox and Twins have a chance.
It feels like Chicago missed its window to dominate the division. Now, there are questions up and down the roster. Can Lucas Giolito get back to being an ace? How much do Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus have left in the tank? Can Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert finally be healthy and productive for a full season?
The White Sox can win this division if everything goes right, but it’s a pretty long list of ifs.
Minnesota has a rotation full of interesting pitchers after adding Pablo Lopez and welcoming back Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda. But the lineup, outside of Carlos Correa, lacks proven production.
Joey Gallo is an extremely volatile player, but could benefit from the infield shift ban. Alex Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco aren’t just injury prone -- they’re already injured! And everybody knows Byron Buxton has MVP upside if he can stay healthy, but it just hasn’t happened (yet).
READ: Tigers announce 7 roster moves ahead of 1st game -- the pitcher injuries have already begun
Once again, the Tigers and Royals will duke it out in the basement. Neither starting rotation has a true ace, but the Royals clearly have the edge both offensively and in the bullpen.
I don’t expect every single thing that can go wrong to do so for the Tigers like it did last season. There were dozens of injuries to starting pitchers. Eduardo Rodriguez ghosted the team for weeks to deal with personal matters. Austin Meadows missed four-fifths of the year with injuries and mental health struggles. Javier Baez, Jonathan Schoop, and others endured career-worst seasons.
Maybe Spencer Torkelson can bounce back, and Kerry Carpenter’s power is worth keeping en eye on. But otherwise, the league’s worst offense from a year ago doesn’t look markedly better.
Ramblings ---> So... what do we really expect from our Tigers this season?
Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez are surrounded by a group of interesting young players in Kansas City, while the Tigers could end up having Riley Greene and not much else.
AL West
- Houston Astros
- Seattle Mariners
- Los Angeles Angels
- Texas Rangers
- Oakland Athletics
The AL West is such a fun division. From the defending World Series champs to the up-and-coming Mariners to the most active team in free agency to the team with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani -- there’s no shortage of storylines in this group.
Houston lost Justin Verlander this offseason, and even though the rotation still looks strong, that one hurts. Jose Altuve will miss the first couple of months, but the Astros added Jose Abreu to the heart of an order that features Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. Loaded.
Seattle broke a 20-year playoff drought in 2022 and hopes to make even more noise this season. Julio Rodriguez is a bonafide superstar, and the Mariners’ starting rotation is excellent top to bottom.
Paul Sewald and Andres Munoz make up one of the best back-end bullpen duos in baseball, and the lineup has a great blend of power (Teoscar Hernandez, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez) and contact specialists (Ty France, Kolten Wong, J.P. Crawford).
The Mariners roster is good enough to make the Astros uncomfortable.
Texas might not be too far behind. With Jacob deGrom leading a rotation that also includes Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Martin Perez, the Rangers will be competitive every night, as long as they can stay healthy.
The dual signings of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien headlined last year’s free agent class, and this season, the Rangers focused on shoring up the pitching staff. If Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia can build on breakout seasons, the lineup will be strong in the middle.
Have the Angels finally done enough to get Ohtani into the postseason? It’s hard to say. Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers are really talented young pitchers, but the rotation doesn’t stack up with those at the top of the division.
Offensively, the Angels look excellent. But many of their best bats, such as Trout and Anthony Rendon, have had a hard time staying on the field. The franchise hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.
I ultimately decided to go with the Angels, just because Ohtani is such a generational talent. He could be otherworldly in a contract year.
Oakland is awful.
NL East
- New York Mets
- Atlanta Braves
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Miami Marlins
- Washington Nationals
No division has a better trio of teams than the NL East. The Mets, Braves, and Phillies are all good enough to win the World Series.
The league’s highest spenders have reunited former Tigers teammates Max Scherzer and Verlander atop the starting rotation, but there are questions beyond that duo for the Mets. The same goes for the Phillies, who have a pair of studs in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, but uncertainty beyond.
Atlanta flew under the radar coming off the 2021 World Series championship, but the roster is still stocked with young talent in the lineup and rotation, obviously led by Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley.
Take your pick of these incredible lineup trios: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso; Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto; or Acuna, Riley, Ozzie Albies.
If the Phillies can stick in the race long enough for Bryce Harper to come back, look out.
Sandy Alcantara leads perhaps the best starting rotation in this division, but the Marlins offense stinks beyond Jazz Chisholm and newly acquired Luis Arraez.
Washington... gross.
NL Central
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Chicago Cubs
- Cincinnati Reds
- Pittsburgh Pirates
You don’t pick against the Cardinals in the NL Central -- it’s a rule I live by. This team has so many young stars that there isn’t enough room for them all in the lineup.
The starting rotation is mediocre, but gets a boost across the board thanks to an historically great defense. The addition of William Contreras will help offensively, but how will the likes of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, and Jack Flaherty respond to pitching to someone other than Yadier Molina?
Milwaukee is just as good as St. Louis, on paper. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are the two best pitchers in the division, and the lineup could get the biggest boost in MLB from rookies if Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, and former Bedford High School star Joey Wiemer hit the ground running.
Chicago is the clear No. 3 team after adding Dansby Swanson to an otherwise blah lineup. The starting rotation and bullpen look average, at best.
Cincinnati gets the edge over Pittsburgh thanks to Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, but Oneil Cruz is the guy everyone will be watching when the Pirates are on.
NL West
- San Diego Padres
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- San Francisco Giants
- Colorado Rockies
That’s right: I’m picking someone other than the Dodgers in the NL West.
Coming off a National League Championship Series appearance, the Padres went out and added Bogaerts to a lineup that will soon welcome back Fernando Tatis Jr. and enjoy a full season of Juan Soto. The starting rotation has some questions, but Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell make for a fairly reliable trio at the top.
The Dodgers will be strong once again, even after losing Trea Turner to free agency and Gavin Lux to season-ending injury. Miguel Vargas will step into the vacant second base spot, but the lineup definitely doesn’t look as formidable as in recent years. Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith is a good place to start, though.
I’m sure the Giants will find some way to win 85+ games and make this prediction look foolish, but I just don’t see it looking at the roster. The rotation has a star in Logan Webb and three solid veterans in Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, and Alex Cobb, but is that enough to overcome a lineup led by... Michael Conforto? Joc Pederson?
Arizona, on the other hand, appears to be on the rise. If Drey Jameson and Brandon Pfaadt join Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in the rotation at some point, it will start to look much stronger. The outfield trio of Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, and Jake McCarthy is incredibly fun.
The only prediction I’m confident in for this division is Colorado. The Rockies stink, and if any of the other four finish behind them, they should be relegated to Triple-A.
Playoff teams
Obviously, all six division winners will make the playoffs, so that would be the Yankees, Guardians, and Astros in the American League.
I expect the Blue Jays and Mariners to return to the postseason as wildcards, but the sixth spot is up for grabs. Fine, I’ll go with the Angels, just to have someone different.
The Mets, Cardinals, and Padres are my projected division winners in the NL, and the Dodgers should obviously join them in the postseason. I think the Braves and Phillies will both earn wildcards, putting the same six teams as last season in the playoffs.
If you’re keeping track, this would mean four of the six divisions have repeat winners, with the exception of the Braves and Dodgers. The only new playoff team I’m predicting is the Angels getting in over the Rays for the final wildcard spot.
