DETROIT – Trade deadline day is finally here, and the Detroit Tigers should be able to take advantage of a bidding war for starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen.
Live updates ---> Here are the latest trade rumors involving the Tigers on deadline day
So far, this year’s MLB trade deadline has been a mix of big moves and inaction. A few teams have made huge trades, like the Texas Rangers getting Max Scherzer and the Los Angeles Angels landing Lucas Giolito.
READ: 5 trades Tigers could make in next day involving E-Rod, Lorenzen
But most of the contenders linked to Rodriguez and Lorenzen have yet to add a starting pitcher, and as the clock ticks down to Tuesday’s 6 p.m. deadline, the sense of urgency for those teams will only increase.
Which teams are in the mix?
The Baltimore Orioles are the team that’s been most heavily linked to the Tigers over the past week, and it’s clear these two teams could be a match.
Detroit has two of the best starting pitchers on the market, and the first-place Orioles likely need to add multiple arms. Even though they’ve managed to put up the best record in the American League so far, a rotation of Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Grayson Rodriguez, and Kyle Bradish could certainly use a boost (or three).
Rodriguez and Lorenzen have also been linked to the Cincinnati Reds, who sit atop the NL Central thanks to a group of talented young infielders. But the Reds only have one reliable starting pitcher with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo on the injured list, and a veteran presence would go a long way toward helping them secure that division lead.
Other teams in the market for a starting pitcher include the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves.
Other starting pitchers available
There are a few other teams looking to trade away starting pitchers, but the Tigers have one of the best to offer in Rodriguez and a solid secondary option in Lorenzen.
Marcus Stroman looked like one of the top players available a few weeks ago, but he’s allowed 30 earned runs in his past 30 innings, and the Chicago Cubs turned into buyers at the deadline. It would be strange for them to trade for Jeimer Candelario and then turn around and get rid of their best pitcher.
St. Louis could be a factor, though the Cardinals already traded their best pitcher in Jordan Montgomery. They’ll likely move Jack Flaherty by the end of the day, but he hasn’t been as good as Rodriguez or Lorenzen.
The pitchers who could really hurt the Tigers’ market are Justin Verlander, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease. All three would be more expensive to acquire than Rodriguez -- if they become available.
Fortunately, it doesn’t sound like the Tigers’ primary trade partners are in on Verlander just yet, probably because of his massive contract. The Chicago White Sox might hang onto Cease since he’s not an impending free agent, and it’s unclear whether the San Diego Padres are planning to give up on the season.
If Verlander, Snell, or Cease get traded to the Orioles or Reds, that’s bad for the Tigers. If not, Rodriguez and Lorenzen start looking like the next-best options.
Similar trades this deadline
Most teams have enough prospects to acquire Rodriguez and/or Lorenzen, but the Reds and Orioles are specifically loaded with high-end infielders. That’s why it feels like a deal will ultimately get done between the Tigers and one of those two.
What should the Tigers expect to get in return?
When the White Sox traded Giolito and reliever Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels, they received a top 100 prospect and another high-end prospect in return. Giolito and Lopez, like Rodriguez (opt-out) and Lorenzen, are both free agents at the end of the year.
Lance Lynn was traded for the Dodgers’ No. 9 prospect, but that return was lighter because Lynn currently owns an ERA north of 6.00.
Scherzer and Aaron Civale both fetched top-50 prospects in trades to the Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays, respectively, but neither was a rental, so it’s hard to compare those to what the Tigers could acquire.
The return for Montgomery was a bit concerning, as the Cardinals only got a pair of mid-level prospects in return from the Rangers. But Rodriguez and Lorenzen have been a bit more consistent this season, so it’s not necessarily cause for alarm. Yet.
Overall, it seems like Scott Harris’ decision to wait until the final day has paid off. He’s maneuvered the Tigers into a position where they have two of the top five or six starting pitchers available, and prices always rise as the click ticks down.
What to expect Tigers to receive
The Tigers aren’t going to get an elite prospect like Jackson Holliday or Heston Kjerstad today, but can Harris land Connor Norby, Coby Mayo, or Joey Ortiz from the Orioles?
What about someone like Cam Collier from the Reds? Would they dare part with an MLB-ready player in Christian Encarnacion-Strand? Maybe Harris targets Deyvison De Los Santos from the Diamondbacks?
It’s realistic that the Tigers could acquire one or two top-100-type prospects today, but it’s also possible the return looks more like what the Cardinals got for Montgomery. That depends on Harris and how much the Orioles, Reds, and others feel they need to upgrade.
Either way, fans are going to learn a lot about Harris today.
Another lost season
Unfortunately, Tuesday will probably be the most exciting day of the Tigers’ season. They’re out of the race for the seventh year in a row, and things will only get uglier without Rodriguez and Lorenzen atop the rotation.
This isn’t Harris’ fault -- a couple of his moves have already paid off. Matt Vierling is enjoying a nice first season in Detroit, and Lorenzen was obviously a solid offseason acquisition.
But that doesn’t mean Harris gets a pass for this deadline. Tigers fans endured too many underwhelming trades during the Al Avila era, and they’re tired of watching a team that’s irrelevant by every All-Star break.
The AL Central is horrible, and both the Guardians and White Sox are trading away players and getting worse. Harris should be thinking about how the Tigers can be more competitive next season, when the division should once again be up for grabs.
