DETROIT – Dan Campbell was at it again this weekend, taking three risks on fourth down as the Detroit Lions battled the Seattle Seahawks.
That’s right: It’s time for another round of... 🎲 Campbell’s Gambles! 🎲
Last week, Campbell helped lead the Lions to victory with a courageous fake punt and one important fourth-down conversion. This time, his risks weren’t as successful.
Detroit went 1-3 on fourth down for the second game in a row. The difference was the Seahawks made Campbell pay when his offense didn’t convert.
Let’s take a look at each individual decision and decide whether Campbell got them right.
Passing up field goal attempt
Early in the second quarter, with the score tied, the Lions faced a 4th and 4 on Seattle’s 31-yard line. Campbell had to choose between extending the drive or attempting a 48-yard field goal.
The Lions went for it, and Jared Goff threw incomplete to Sam LaPorta. A 12-play, 57-yard drive resulted in no points.
Some fans might look back at this moment and say it cost the Lions the game, but it’s not that simple.
Yes, if the Lions had scored three more points in regulation, they theoretically would have won before overtime. But you never know how the rest of the game would have played out if the Seahawks were playing from behind.
Typically, I would take the points in a tie game, but I’m not so sure Riley Patterson is automatic from nearly 50 yards. I’m OK with Campbell’s decision here -- he knows his team, and trusting the offense has worked out for him more times than not.
- 👨⚖️ Verdict: Good call ✅
Playing for touchdown in red zone
Campbell really didn’t want to kick field goals on Sunday, because he passed up an easy 28-yarder in the red zone to go for a 4th and 3 in a tie game.
The Seahawks had just scored after David Montgomery’s fumble to open the second half, and the Lions desperately needed to regain momentum. I can understand wanting to play it safe and take the points, but I was with Campbell all the way here.
It didn’t feel like the Lions defense was going to get many more stops (and that turned out to be true -- Seattle scored on three of its final four possessions), so the offense needed a touchdown.
The play call was beautiful: a little misdirection shovel pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Campbell and Ben Johnson were clearly saving that for a big moment, and it worked like a charm.
Even if it hadn’t worked out, at least the Seahawks would have had to start deep in their own territory. I liked this gamble.
- 👨⚖️ Verdict: Good call ✅
4th down at midfield
This was the most controversial fourth-down decision of the game. The Lions were up 21-17 and facing a 4th and 2 from their own 45-yard line at the end of the third quarter.
Campbell decided to risk going for it, but Goff’s pass to Josh Reynolds was incomplete. The Seahawks took advantage of the short field and scored a go-ahead touchdown.
This felt nearly identical to Campbell’s decision late in the Chiefs game, when he tried to convert a 4th and 2 on Kansas City’s 45-yard line. Detroit was up one point, and when the attempt failed, Patrick Mahomes found himself just 20 yards away from a game-winning field goal attempt.
The defense bailed Campbell out last week, but not this time. I said he should have punted against the Chiefs 10 days ago, and I’m sticking with that now.
- 👨⚖️ Verdict: Wrong call ❌
Conclusion
Overall, the fan base has accepted -- even embraced -- Campbell’s aggressive mindset. It’s part of his coaching identity, and it’s gotten the Lions this far.
I think he should continue to trust his offense in these big moments, though some of these fourth downs around midfield come with more risk than reward.
Campbell is not the only reason the Lions lost to the Seahawks. Fans could even argue he should have been more aggressive in the final minutes of regulation (read much more about that here), and I don’t think that mentality will change going forward.
