DETROIT – There are less than two weeks left in the MLB regular season, and both wildcard races and two division titles remain up for grabs.
Four of the league’s six divisions have already been decided. The Atlanta Braves won the NL East, the Los Angeles Dodgers won the NL West, the Minnesota Twins will win the AL Central, and the Milwaukee Brewers will win the NL Central.
That means two divisions are still in doubt: the AL East and AL West. What makes this interesting is the teams that win those two divisions will get the American League’s first-round byes.
American League East race
- Baltimore Orioles (95-57)
- Tampa Bay Rays (94-60) -- 2 games back
Baltimore and Tampa Bay have both clinched playoff spots, but the two best teams in the AL are still duking it out for the No. 1 overall seed.
There’s a big difference between winning the division and earning the top wildcard spot. One team will rest for a few days and get its starting rotation in order while the other risks its season in a three-game series.
Anything can happen in a three-game series. For example, the Rays are one of the four best teams in MLB this season, but they’ve lost three-game series against the Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Padres, Mariners, Phillies, Rangers, Cardinals, and Guardians this season. You know what all of those teams have in common? They’re wildcard teams or worse.
So yeah, anything can happen in one series. That’s why winning the division is so valuable.
Baltimore has a 2-game lead and finishes the season with 10 games against teams with losing records. Eight of those games will come against the Guardians and Red Sox -- both teams have a pulse -- but still, the schedule is pretty favorable.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, plays Toronto in six of its final eight games. The Blue Jays are in the heat of a wildcard race (more on that in a moment) and fighting for their lives. That could be a major factor in this AL East Race. The Rays’ other two games are against the Red Sox.
American League West race
- Houston Astros (85-68)
- Texas Rangers (84-68) -- 0.5 GB
- Seattle Mariners (84-68) -- 0.5 GB
This is my favorite race because a three-way tie is actually possible, and that would cause pure chaos.
Keep in mind that all three of these teams are right in the thick of the AL wildcard race if they don’t win the West. And the winner of this division will get a first-round bye while the other two either travel to Tampa Bay, travel to Minnesota, or get left out of the postseason entirely.
It gets even better: There are three head-to-head series left to play. In fact, every single one of Seattle’s remaining games is against either the Rangers or Astros. They’ll play three games at Texas, then host the Astros for three, then host the Rangers for four to end the season.
In between those two series against the Mariners, the Rangers have three road games against the Angels.
Houston hosts Kansas City before heading to Seattle, and then travels to Arizona for three games against a Diamondbacks team that could be fighting for its own spot in the postseason.
There’s so much up in the air in this division. Not only are all three teams tied at 68 losses, they’re also going to play 10 head-to-head games. Buckle up!
American League wildcard race
- Tampa Bay Rays (either Rays or Orioles will get No. 1 wildcard spot)
- Toronto Blue Jays (85-67)
- Texas Rangers (84-68) -- 1 game behind Toronto
- Seattle Mariners (84-68) -- 1 game behind Toronto
Remember, the Astros could also land a wildcard spot, even though they’re currently a division leader. They’re a half-game behind the Blue Jays.
Essentially, the AL wildcard race boils down to this: Three teams are fighting for two spots.
The Toronto Blue Jays and the two teams that don’t win the AL West are all vying for the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in the AL playoff bracket.
We already broke down the schedules for all the AL West teams, but here’s a refresher:
- Houston: 3 vs. Royals, 3 at Mariners, 3 at Diamondbacks.
- Rangers: 3 vs. Mariners, 3 at Angels, 4 at Mariners.
- Mariners: 3 at Rangers, 3 vs. Astros, 4 vs. Rangers.
The Blue Jays, meanwhile, will play the Yankees four times (one on the road, three at home) and the Rays six times (three home, three away).
Nobody in this race has it easy. Houston, Toronto, and Texas each have two series against playoff contenders, while the Mariners have three.
Whoever finishes in the No. 5 slot will travel to Tampa Bay for a three-game wildcard series against the Rays. So it would actually be better to finish sixth and travel to Minnesota to play the Twins.
National League wildcard race
- Philadelphia Phillies (83-69)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (81-72) -- 1.5 games ahead of the Cubs
- Chicago Cubs (79-73)
- Miami Marlins (79-74) -- 0.5 games behind the Cubs
- Cincinnati Reds (79-75) -- 1 game behind the Cubs
- San Francisco Giants (76-76) -- 3 games behind the Cubs
- San Diego Padres (75-78) -- 4.5 games behind the Cubs
Technically, there are seven teams battling for three spots, but we’re going to simplify this. Let’s say the Phillies are in and the Giants and Padres are both out -- I’m pretty confident all three of those assumptions will come true.
That leaves four teams vying for two spots. Much cleaner.
Arizona has a 2-game cushion over the Marlins, but also a pretty tough schedule. The Diamondbacks will play three games in Yankee Stadium this weekend, then three games at the White Sox, and three at home against the Astros.
The White Sox are awful, but those other two series will be challenging. Even though they’re not in the playoff picture, the Yankees are a .500 team playing in baseball’s toughest division. And the Astros will be desperate in those final three games.
The Cubs get to play one more home game agains the Pirates on Thursday, and then three home games against the Rockies this weekend. They’d better take advantage of that stretch, because the final six games include three in Atlanta and three in Milwaukee.
It could help the Cubs if both the Braves and Brewers are locked into their seeds by the time they play. The Brewers, in particular, might be more concerned with setting up their starting rotation that final weekend than actually competing to win.
Miami hosts the Brewers this weekend, and the Brewers will be trying to officially clinch the NL Central. Then the Marlins hit the road to play three against the Mets and three against the Pirates. That’s a pretty manageable schedule.
Cincinnati has the easiest road remaining, but the most ground to make up. The Reds host the Pirates for three games, travel to Cleveland for two against the Guardians, and then finish with three in St. Louis against the last-place Cardinals.
