Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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Dak Prescott is rolling and so are the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys (8-3) enter Thursday night’s game against Seattle (6-5) with three straight wins by a combined margin of 127-47. They’ve won seven games this season by at least 20 points. Prescott has thrown for 300-plus yards and three or more touchdowns four times in the past five games.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are skidding. They’ve lost three of four, including lopsided games against Baltimore and San Francisco. Geno Smith and the offense are struggling over that span, scoring just three TDs as a unit.
In a week that features seven road favorites, this one is the second-biggest spread. The Cowboys are 9-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Home teams are just 23-35 against the spread on Thursday nights since 2020.
Pro Picks expects Seattle to avoid a double-digit loss.
COWBOYS, 26-18
KANSAS CITY at GREEN BAY
Line: Chiefs minus 6
Patrick Mahomes plays his first game at Lambeau Field and the Chiefs (8-3) could take over the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win. Jordan Love and the Packers (5-6) have won three of four to climb into the wild-card race.
BEST BET: CHIEFS, 27-16
SAN FRANCISCO at PHILADELPHIA
Line: 49ers minus 2 1/2
Somehow the Eagles (10-1) are home underdogs coming off impressive comeback wins against Buffalo and Kansas City. The 49ers (8-3) aim to avenge a blowout loss in the NFC title game.
UPSET SPECIAL: EAGLES, 26-24
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at NEW ENGLAND
Line: Chargers minus 6
If Bill Belichick is coaching next year, his best option might be the Chargers (4-7). So, he should be extra motivated to lead the Patriots (2-9) to a victory and help improve Los Angeles’ draft positioning.
CHARGERS, 24-13
ARIZONA at PITTSBURGH
Line: Steelers minus 5 1/2
The Steelers (7-4) offense finally got going last week after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired. The Cardinals (2-10) have averaged just 11.1 points on the road this season.
STEELERS, 23-16
DENVER at HOUSTON
Line: Texans minus 3 1/2
A five-game winning streak has the Broncos (6-5) in the AFC playoff picture. The Texans (6-5) are right there thanks to quarterback C.J. Stroud’s impressive rookie season. He’ll be without starting left guard Tytus Howard, who suffered a season-ending injury.
BRONCOS, 19-17
DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS
Line: Lions minus 4 1/2
The Lions (8-3) aim to rebound from a Thanksgiving loss to the Packers. The Saints (5-6) have lost two in a row, but are in the chase for the division title in the weak NFC South. Behind QB Jared Goff, the Lions are 14-8 against the spread after losing the previous game.
LIONS, 27-20
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE
Line: Colts minus 1 1/2
Colts QB Gardner Minshew has won three straight games for the first time in his career, but Indianapolis (6-5) won’t have RB Jonathan Taylor. The Titans (4-7) are 7-3 as a home underdog since 2021 under coach Mike Vrabel.
TITANS, 20-17
ATLANTA at NEW YORK JETS
Line: Falcons minus 3
Getting Aaron Rodgers back at practice should motivate the Jets (4-7) to win so he would have reason to return in a few weeks. The Falcons (5-6) lead the NFC South after snapping a three-game losing streak. Atlanta has only covered the spread six times in its past 22 games.
JETS, 13-12
MIAMI at WASHINGTON
Line: Dolphins minus 9 1/2
Tua Tagovailoa and the high-flying Dolphins (8-3) will still have zero wins against winning teams after this game. Tagovailoa is under .500 against the spread on the road in his career. The Commanders (4-8) are coming off a beatdown in Dallas and looking to avoid another embarrassment.
DOLPHINS, 30-22
CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY
Line: Buccaneers minus 5 1/2
Maybe a new coach will inspire the Panthers (1-10). They’re facing a team that could be in the market for a new coach, too. The Buccaneers (4-7) have lost six of their past seven. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is 13-24-1 against the spread as a favorite.
BUCCANEERS, 23-20
CLEVELAND at LOS ANGELES RAMS
Line: Rams minus 3 1/2
The rebuilding Rams (5-6) are a wild-card contender with a new playmaker in RB Kyren Williams. Joe Flacco could be starting for the Browns (7-4) with Dorian Thompson-Robinson in concussion protocol. Cleveland’s stingy defense gave up 169 yards on the ground in a loss at Denver last week.
RAMS, 17-16
CINCINNATI at JACKSONVILLE
Line: Jaguars minus 8 1/2
The Jaguars (8-3) make their first appearance on “Monday Night Football” since 2011. Coach Doug Pederson is a prime-time king. He’s 21-8 in night games, the best record for any head coach over the past 20 years. The Bengals (5-6) continue life without Joe Burrow.
JAGUARS, 26-16
Last week: Straight up: 11-5. Against spread: 8-7-1
Overall: Straight up: 114-66. Against spread: 97-76-7.
Best Bet: Straight up: 9-3. Against spread: 6-5-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 7-5. Against spread: 9-3.
Thursday: Straight up: 10-4. Against spread: 10-3-1.
Monday: Straight up: 8-6. Against spread: 10-3-1.
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