DETROIT – There are only five weeks left in the NFL regular season, and all signs are starting to point toward the Detroit Lions being the No. 3 seed in the playoffs.
Detroit took care of business this weekend with a bounce-back win over the Saints. With the Packers winning and the Vikings on bye, the lead in the NFC North Division is an even three games over both.
As we’ve been saying for a few weeks, it would take a pretty spectacular collapse for the Lions to lose the division at this point. That means they would earn a top four seed.
But the icing on top of the win in New Orleans is that the Lions now own the head-to-head tiebreaker over all four teams from the NFC South. That virtually guarantees the winner of the NFC North will earn a top-three seed.
The one complication from this week’s results was the 49ers beating the Eagles -- not necessarily the outcome the Lions were hoping for.
Detroit pulled one game closer to the Eagles for the No. 1 seed, but Philadelphia still has the tiebreaker of conference record and that glorious three-game stretch of Giants-Cardinals-Giants to finish the season.
So to get the No. 1 seed, the Lions would likely have to win out while the Eagles lose their next two games -- still not very likely.
Which brings us back to what we determined last week: The most important race to watch for the Lions is whether or not they can finish ahead of the 49ers. Whichever of those two teams (or the Eagles) earns the No. 2 seed would get to host No. 3 in a hypothetical divisional round matchup.
San Francisco improved to 9-3 with its win over the Eagles. But once again, the tie with the Lions is broken by a superior record in conference, so right now, Detroit is at No. 3.
The 49ers have home games against Seattle and Baltimore remaining on the schedule, while the Lions have four games against playoff contenders after their trip to Chicago this weekend.
Could the Lions catch fire and surpass the 49ers for the No. 2 seed? Sure, it’s possible. But right now, the 49ers are on a four-game win streak that includes beating Philadelphia by 23, Seattle by 18, and Jacksonville by 31. It doesn’t get more impressive than that.
All the Lions can do is continue winning, and that’ll keep all possibilities on the table. If I had to bet right now, though, the No. 3 seed looks most likely.
