DETROIT – Who will win the NFC North Division if the Detroit Lions finish the regular season tied with the Minnesota Vikings?
With four weeks remaining, the Lions lead the Vikings by two games, which is the closest the teams have been since very early in the season. To add even more spice to this race, both head-to-head meetings are coming up in Weeks 16 and 18.
So it’s obviously very possible that the two teams could finish the regular season with identical records. The question is: Who would win the division?
If Vikings win both matchups
Let’s get this one out of the way first: You probably all know that the NFL’s primary tiebreaker in any situation is head-to-head result, so if the Vikings beat the Lions twice and the two teams finish tied, the Vikings would win the division.
The inverse isn’t possible. If the Lions sweep the Vikings, there’s no way for the two teams to finish with the same record.
It would be possible for the Vikings to sweep the Lions but lose one or both of their games against the Bengals and Packers. The Lions could finish ahead of the Vikings by beating the Broncos and/or Cowboys in that scenario, but there would be no tiebreaker.
Bottom line: Those head-to-head matchups are the most important games left on the schedule. If the Lions lose both, their fate is in Minnesota’s hands.
If Lions, Vikings split head-to-head matchups
Now, let’s say the Lions and Vikings split the two head-to-head meetings, which feels very possible.
Here’s what would have to happen for the Vikings and Lions to finished tied in the final standings:
- Lions lose to both Broncos and Cowboys.
- Vikings beat both Bengals and Packers.
In this scenario, the Lions and Vikings would finish the season 10-7 atop the NFC North. The Packers wouldn’t be able to get to 10 wins because of that loss to the Vikings, so they would be out.
Who would win the division? Since the head-to-head meetings were split, the tiebreaker would move to divisional record.
And that’s where the recent losses to the Packers and Bears come back to haunt Detroit.
The Vikings would own a 4-2 record against the NFC North, with one loss to the Lions and one loss to the Bears. The Lions would be 3-3, with one loss against all three division rivals.
Minnesota’s sweep of Green Bay would be the difference in this scenario, because if it moved to the next tiebreaker, record against “common opponents,” the Lions would win. The Vikings are 4-4 against non-divisional common opponents, while the Lions are 7-0 (with the Denver game remaining).
What does this mean?
To summarize, there’s no scenario in which the Lions end up tied with the Vikings and win the NFC North. In order to catch the Lions, the Vikings would either have to sweep the head-to-head meetings or finish with a superior divisional record.
The same is true of the Packers -- they’re a full three games behind the Lions, but if they do somehow force a tie, they will win the tiebreaker. (Click here to read the full breakdown of the Packers tiebreaker.)
So the Lions have to make sure they stay at least a game ahead of both division rivals if they want to host their first playoff game at Ford Field.
