DETROIT – The Detroit Lions haven’t yet clinched a playoff berth, but they now control their own destiny in the race for the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
Thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles’ loss on Monday Night Football, the Lions are tied for the second-best record in the NFC at 10-4. Both the Eagles and Cowboys are also 10-4, and they all trail the 11-3 San Francisco 49ers by one game.
It’s very unlikely that the Lions can catch the 49ers for the No. 1 overall seed. San Francisco owns a two-game lead over Detroit in the primary tiebreaker (conference record), so the Lions would need the 49ers to lose two of their final three games to even have a chance to be No. 1.
As for the No. 2 seed, that’s very much on the table.
Detroit has a very difficult final three games this season: a trip to Minnesota, a trip to Dallas, and a home rematch with the Vikings. Minnesota is 7-7 and fighting not only for its playoff life, but also to stay alive in the NFC North race. Dallas, meanwhile, has its eyes on the No. 2 seed, as well.
So, finishing the season with three victories will be no easy task, but if the Lions can pull it off, they will be the No. 2 seed in the NFC (assuming the 49ers win at least two of their last three games).
Why would the Lions overtake both the Cowboys and the Eagles? Well, the first one is simple: Since the Lions play the Cowboys in Week 17, a win would automatically drop the Cowboys a game below them in the standings.
But even if the Eagles win out and both teams are 13-4, the Lions would finish ahead of them thanks to a tiebreaker.
Here are the top three criteria for determining seeding among tied division winners in the NFL:
- Head-to-head result.
- Conference record.
- Winning percentage against common opponents.
The Lions and Eagles didn’t play this season, so the head-to-head tiebreaker would be skipped. Assuming both teams win their final three games, they would both be 9-3 within the conference -- another tie.
So that would trigger the “common opponents” tiebreaker. The Lions and Eagles have six common opponents on their schedules:
Lions:
- Chiefs -- win.
- Seahawks -- loss.
- Buccaneers -- win.
- Vikings -- Week 16.
- Cowboys -- Week 17.
- Vikings -- Week 18.
Eagles:
- Vikings -- win.
- Buccaneers -- win.
- Cowboys -- win.
- Chiefs -- win.
- Cowboys -- loss.
- Seahawks -- loss.
Right now, the Eagles are 4-2 against these common opponents, while the Lions are 2-1. But if the Lions win their final three games, they will finish 5-1 against those opponents, and therefore win the tiebreaker over the Eagles.
It’s unlikely the Lions will win all three of their remaining games, but it’s a testament to their season that they still have an opportunity to earn a top-two seed midway through December.
If Detroit can survive this weekend’s trip to Minneapolis, that Cowboys game will be one of the most important of the entire NFL season.
