Detroit Lions have 12 possible opponents in first round of playoffs -- how each matchup could happen

DETROIT – With three weeks left in the regular season, there are 12 teams the Detroit Lions could end up playing in the first round of the playoffs.

Detroit’s magic number to clinch a playoff spot is one -- either a Rams or Seahawks loss would guarantee the Lions a wildcard spot at worst, while a Lions win or a Vikings loss would lock up the NFC North.

Possible Lions playoff seeds

If the Lions win the division, they will either earn the No. 3 seed (if they don’t win out), or the No. 2 seed (if the Lions win out and the 49ers don’t lose two of their last three games).

If they lose their last three games, the Lions will end up as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed unless the Rams and Seahawks win out (the Lions would be eliminated) or the Vikings lose to the Packers (the Lions would win the North and get the No. 3 seed).

In the scenario where the Lions lose their last three games and the Vikings beat the Packers, the Lions would be the No. 6 seed if the Rams and Seahawks both lose at least one more time. The Lions would be the No. 7 seed if one of those two teams won out.

The order of most likely seeds for the Lions is:

1. No. 3 seed (win NFC North but don’t win final three games).
2. No. 2 seed (win final three games).
3. No. 6 seed (lose final three games and both Rams and Seahawks lose at least one more time).
4. No. 7 seed (lose final three games and either Rams or Seahawks [but not both] lose at least one more time).
5. No. 1 seed (win final three games and 49ers lose at least two more times).

It’s not possible for the Lions to earn the No. 4 or No. 5 seeds. And since this breakdown is for first-round opponents, we also won’t discuss the No. 1 seed possibility, because in that scenario, the Lions wouldn’t have a first-round game at all.

How five-way tie would play out

Before we dive into the team-specific scenarios, I want to break down how a potential five-way tie would play out between the teams I perceive as the Lions’ most likely first-round opponents.

Right now, the Buccaneers, Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, and Saints are all 7-7. The Buccaneers are the NFC South leaders due to a head-to-head win over the Saints, and the Vikings and Rams hold the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds, respectively, due to other tiebreakers.

Since the Lions are most likely to end up as the No. 3 or No. 2 seed, the order of how these teams finish will most likely have a direct impact on which team would travel to Ford Field in the first round.

Here’s one scenario where all five of these teams finish 9-8:

• Buccaneers beat Jaguars and Panthers, lose to Saints.
• Saints beat Buccaneers and Falcons, lose to Rams.
• Vikings beat Lions and Packers, lose to Lions.
• Rams beat Saints and Giants, lose to 49ers.
• Seahawks beat Cardinals and Titans/Steelers, lose to Titans/Steelers.

In this case, the Buccaneers would still win the NFC South thanks to the “common opponents” tiebreaker. They would be 8-4 against their common opponents with the Saints, while the Saints would be 6-6.

So that leaves the Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, and Saints tied at 9-8 and competing for two wildcard spots -- the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds.

Since the Rams swept the Seahawks in their head-to-head meetings, the Seahawks would be eliminated from consideration for the No. 6 seed in this scenario (the first step is to cut the tiebreaker down to only one team per division).

The Saints would be the next team eliminated because they would have lost head-to-head against both the Vikings and Rams.

The Vikings would then earn the No. 6 seed due to a superior conference record than the Rams.

Then, the process starts over with the other three teams. The Seahawks and Saints would then be eliminated in the same order due to their head-to-head losses against the Rams. So the Rams would earn the No. 7 seed.

Here’s another scenario where all five of these teams finish 9-8:

• Buccaneers beat Jaguars and Panthers, lose to Saints.
• Saints beat Rams and Buccaneers/Falcons, lose to Buccaneers/Falcons.
• Vikings beat Lions and Packers, lose to Lions.
• Rams beat Giants and 49ers, lose to Saints.
• Seahawks beat Cardinals and Titans/Steelers, lose to Titans/Steelers.

The only change here is that the Saints would beat the Rams head-to-head. The Buccaneers would still win the NFC South, so the same four teams would be compared for the final two wildcard spots.

Again, the Seahawks are eliminated by the Rams right off the bat. Then, since none of the remaining three teams (Vikings, Rams, Saints) have a 2-0 or 0-2 record against the other two, the tiebreaker moves to conference record.

Once again, the Vikings would come out on top as the No. 6 seed. Then, the Saints would end up as the No. 7 seed thanks to that head-to-head win over the Rams.

Takeaways from this exercise:

• The Buccaneers will win the NFC South if they finish tied with the Saints.
• The Vikings will earn the No. 6 seed if they can finish tied with any of these other contenders (except the Buccaneers).
• The head-to-head game between the Rams and Saints on Thursday is critical for tiebreaker positioning.
• The Seahawks are in big trouble if they finish tied with the Rams, because their head-to-head losses immediately eliminate them from further tiebreaker consideration, even if there are multiple teams involved.

Here are all of Detroit’s possible first-round opponents:

Minnesota Vikings

• Current standing: 7-7 -- No. 6 seed in NFC
• Matchup likelihood: Very high

It’s going to be so strange if the Vikings and Lions square off three times in four weeks, but it’s a distinct possibility.

The Lions and Vikings are in the unique situation of playing each other in Week 16 and Week 18, so while the Lions are nearing the finish line for the NFC North, the Vikings can directly keep them from crossing.

Let’s say the two teams split their head-to-head meetings, and in between, the Vikings beat the Packers in Minneapolis. The Lions would be the No. 3 seed and the Vikings would finish 9-8.

As long as the Rams, Seahawks and Saints don’t win out, the Vikings would earn the No. 6 seed in this situation. You know what that means! Might as well just stay in Detroit for another week after Jan. 7.

There’s also the less likely scenario where the Lions lose their last three games, the Vikings win the division, and the Lions have to travel to Minnesota for the first round.

Los Angeles Rams

• Current standing: 7-7 -- No. 7 seed in NFC
• Matchup likelihood: High

If the Lions win the NFC North Division, Matthew Stafford and the Rams look like one of their most likely first-round opponents.

Right now, the Rams are in a four-way tie with the Vikings, Seahawks, and Saints for the 6-9 spots in the NFC. They host the Saints on Thursday night and then finish the season with road trips to the Giants and 49ers.

Let’s say the Rams win two of those three games -- maybe they beat the Saints and Giants but lose to the 49ers. With a 9-8 record, they’re probably going to end up in either sixth or seventh place in the conference.

They would then hit the road to play the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, and if the Lions win the North, one of those destination will be Detroit.

Finally, Stafford could lead his team to a playoff game at Ford Field.

Seattle Seahawks

• Current standing: 7-7 -- No. 8 team in NFC
• Matchup likelihood: High

The Seahawks helped the Lions by beating the Eagles on Monday night, because now the Lions control their own destiny for the No. 2 seed. But that also kept the chances of a Seattle playoff rematch alive, and I don’t think anyone in Detroit wants that.

Seattle has been a thorn in the side of Dan Campbell since he got to Detroit. The Seahawks beat the Lions 51-29 in 2021, won 48-45 last season in a game that ended up keeping the Lions out of the playoffs, and then came to Ford Field this September to win in overtime.

The Seahawks have three manageable games left on the schedule: at Tennessee, vs. Pittsburgh, and at Arizona. But unlike the Rams, they’re not in great position to win tiebreakers if they win two of three.

Seattle is rooting for the Vikings and Rams to lose two of their last three games. If both happen, 2-1 would be good enough for the Seahawks to get in. If only one happens, the waters get a bit murky, depending on how the Saints and Buccaneers finish.

If the Seahawks earn a wildcard spot, it’ll either be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed (unless they finish 3-0 and the Eagles finish 0-3, then they could jump to No. 5). That obviously sets up a potential return to Ford Field.

New Orleans Saints

• Current standing: 7-7 -- No. 9 team in NFC
• Matchup likelihood: High

New Orleans is tied with Tampa Bay at the top of the NFC South, but as we learned in the exercise above, it’s not a guarantee the Saints would win the division even if they beat the Buccaneers on New Year’s Eve.

An equally important game for the Saints is on Thursday, when they travel to Los Angeles to battle the Rams. With a win, they wouldn’t just jump into a playoff spot, they would also lock up a critical head-to-head tiebreaker.

If the Saints finish 9-8 and don’t win the South, their only possible landing spots would be the No. 6 or No. 7 seeds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Current standing: 7-7 -- No. 4 seed in NFC (South leader)
• Matchup likelihood: Medium

The Lions can’t get the No. 5 seed, so the Buccaneers would need to lose the NFC South Division and fall into a wildcard spot for this matchup to play out.

That isn’t too farfetched. The Buccaneers could lose the head-to-head rematch against the Saints in Week 17 and finish 9-8 while the Saints win out to get to 10-7.

In that scenario, Tampa Bay would have head-to-head wins over the Vikings and Packers to lean on. But it would not win a tiebreaker over the Seahawks due to either common opponents or strength of victory (depending on whether the Seahawks beat the Titans).

A potential Buccaneers-Rams tiebreaker would depend on the upcoming Rams-Saints and Rams-49ers games.

So, in short, the path to a wildcard for the Buccaneers involves losing the South to the Saints and finishing with a better record than the Seahawks and/or Rams.

Atlanta Falcons

• Current standing: 6-8 -- No. 10 team in NFC
• Matchup likelihood: Very low

Atlanta is hanging on by a thread after losing to the 1-12 Panthers last week. But it can technically still get into the postseason with two or three more wins.

If they win out, the Falcons will likely finish in a tie with several other 9-8 teams. They would also have a sweep of the Saints and a head-to-head win over the Packers as possible tiebreakers.

Here’s the problem: Losses to the three worst teams in the NFC -- Washington, Arizona, and Carolina -- cratered Atlanta’s conference record. They best the Falcons can finish in that critical tiebreaker is 6-6, and that’s probably not going to get it done.

Atlanta can’t win a tiebreaker with the Vikings because of a head-to-head loss. It can’t win one over the Rams because it would have a worse conference record.

Even if the Seahawks lose to Arizona but finish 9-8, they have a far superior record than the Falcons against their common opponents.

So for the Falcons to get into the playoffs, they need two of the Vikings, Rams, and Seahawks to finish 1-2. The Falcons would also need to win out.

It’s unlikely, but the path to a No. 6 or No. 7 seed is still technically open for Atlanta. This is a rematch at Ford Field that Lions fans would absolutely love to see.

Green Bay Packers

• Current standing: 6-8 -- No. 11 team in NFC
• Matchup likelihood: Pretty low

Green Bay is in a similar situation as Atlanta, but with a bit better tiebreaker situation.

The Packers have a chance to force a split with the Vikings on New Year’s Eve, and they beat the Rams and Saints head-to-head.

If they can beat the Panthers, Vikings, and Bears to finish 9-8, the Packers actually have a decent chance to make the playoffs.

In a tiebreaker scenario with the Vikings, the Packers would lose due to overall conference record, but let’s say they end up in a three-way tie with the Rams and Seahawks for the No. 7 seed. The Seahawks would be eliminated using the division tiebreaker due to their head-to-head losses against the Rams, and then the Packers would win the tiebreaker over the Rams due to their head-to-head win.

In a straight tiebreaker between the Packers and Seahawks, the Seahawks would win unless their one remaining loss came against Arizona.

So in a weird way, the Packers are hoping for the Rams to finish 9-8 to protect them in a possible tiebreaker scenario involving the Seahawks.

The Packers could also jump the Vikings if the Vikings lose to the Packers and split with the Lions. That would open up the possibility of Green Bay jumping as high as No. 6.

New York Giants

• Current standing: 5-9 -- No. 12 team in NFC
• Matchup likelihood: Extremely low

The Giants need absolute mayhem to get into the playoffs because the best they can finish is 8-9.

Here’s the most amazing part of this race: The Giants don’t even necessarily need to win out to make the playoffs. What if they finish in a seven-way tie with the Packers, Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Falcons -- all at 7-10?

This is by far the most hilarious possible outcome in the NFC. And the Giants would come out with the No. 6 seed (if the Falcons beat the Saints) or the or No. 7 seed (if the Saints beat the Falcons and the Buccaneers end up with a better strength of victory than the Giants).

But the most likely way for the Giants to get into the playoffs is to win their final three games, which means beating the Eagles twice and the Rams once. There’s absolutely no way that’s going to happen, but if it does, the Giants would own tiebreakers over the Rams and Packers.

They would need the Seahawks, Vikings, and Buccaneers to do quite a bit of losing to get into some winnable tiebreaker situations, but hey, a wildcard is technically possible.

And the Lions would welcome the Giants to Detroit with open arms.

Chicago Bears

• Current standing: 5-9 -- No. 13 team in NFC
• Matchup likelihood: Extremely low

The Bears are pretty much in the same situation as the Giants. The biggest difference is they have a trio of winnable games remaining -- Arizona, Atlanta, and Green Bay -- and if they take care of all three, maybe some magic can happen.

Chicago would have splits with both the Packers and Vikings, but not much else working in its favor. The Vikings would win the tiebreaker over the Bears if both finished 8-9.

But if the Vikings fall to 7-10 and and the Bears win out, Chicago would be the second-place team in the North, no matter what the Packers do against the Panthers.

The Bears would also win a tiebreaker against the Rams due to conference record, and a three-way tiebreaker with the Rams and Seahawks due to the Rams’ sweep of the Seahawks.

As long as the Seahawks beat the Cardinals in their final game, they would win a tiebreaker against the Bears.

The Lions didn’t play well against the Bears this season, so this might not be the best possible playoff matchup. Fortunately, it’s not likely, since the Bears would have to win out, the Vikings would have to lose out, and the tiebreaker would have to include the Rams.

San Francisco 49ers

• Current standing: 11-3 -- No. 1 seed in NFC (West leader)
• Matchup likelihood: Extremely low

If the Lions lose their last three games and end up as the No. 7 seed, they could technically play the 49ers in the first round.

San Francisco would have to fumble away the No. 1 overall seed, which would mean losing two of their last three games. Even in that scenario, either the Cowboys or Eagles would have to win out to take over at No. 1 because the 49ers own both head-to-head tiebreakers.

Dallas Cowboys

• Current standing: 10-4 -- No. 2 seed in NFC (East leader)
• Matchup likelihood: Low

If the Lions do somehow drop into a wildcard spot, there’s a good chance they could play the winner of the NFC East.

Right now, the Cowboys lead the division, but by the end of the season, if the Cowboys and Eagles are both 13-4, the tiebreaker will come down to strength of victory.

The Lions probably wouldn’t enjoy making a second trip to Dallas in three weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Current standing: 10-4 -- No. 5 seed in NFC
• Matchup likelihood: Low

This scenario is basically identical to the one above, but it assumes the Eagles win the East over the Cowboys.

Philadelphia has a much easier route to 13-4, with its remaining games against the Giants, Cardinals, and Giants.

If it comes down to a tie with the Giants, it’s hard to say who would finish with the higher strength of victory. Right now, the Eagles have a .493-.379 lead, but playing the Giants and Cardinals three times will drop Philadelphia’s number significantly, while playing the Lions and Dolphins will help the Cowboys.

• Current record of opponents defeated by Eagles if they win out: 82-100 (.450)
• Current record of opponents defeated by Cowboys if they win out: 77-105 (.423)

That means from now to the end of the season, if the Cowboys and Eagles both finish 13-4, the Cowboys can only win the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Eagles if the Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Seahawks, and Lions combine to win six more games in the final three weeks than the Vikings, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Bills, and Cardinals.

(NOTE: I calculated this by eliminating all common victories between the Cowboys and Eagles, as well as their wins against each other, since this is only relevant if they both finish with the same record.)

So between the remaining schedule and the strength of victory tiebreaker, it seems slightly more likely that the Lions could play the Eagles in the first round than the Cowboys.

Likeliness ranking

Here’s my personal ranking of possible first-round Lions opponents from most to least likely:

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. New Orleans Saints
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Philadelphia Eagles
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Atlanta Falcons
10. San Francisco 49ers
11. Chicago Bears
12. New York Giants