DETROIT – The chances of the Detroit Lions hosting Matthew Stafford in the first round of the playoffs are pretty high, but Thursday night’s game will have a major impact on whether it actually happens.
Stafford’s Los Angels Rams will host the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football, with massive playoff seeding implications on the line. The Lions will officially clinch a playoff spot if the Rams lose, but either way, whoever wins this game has an increased chance of playing in Detroit for the first round.
Current NFC playoff picture
Heading into Week 16, the Detroit Lions are one win away from locking up the NFC North Division over the Vikings. If they win any of their final three games, they will guarantee either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed (assuming the 49ers don’t lose twice).
As the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, the Lions would host the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the first round of the playoffs. Well, those are the only possible playoff spots for the Rams.
Right now, the Rams sit in a four-way tie for the 6-9 spots on the NFC. They’re tied with the Vikings, Saints, and Seahawks at 7-7 records.
New Orleans is in a bit of a unique position, because while it fights for a wildcard spot, it’s also tied with the Buccaneers atop the NFC South. The Buccaneers hold the tiebreaker, but the No. 4 seed is still very much an option for the Saints.
Remaining schedule
The Rams don’t have an easy road to the finish line, starting with Thursday’s high-stakes home game against the Saints.
Next week, the Rams hit the road to face the 5-9 New York Giants, and then they’ll finish the season at San Francisco -- the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Technically, the 6-8 Packers and Falcons -- as well as the 5-9 Bears and Giants -- are still alive in the playoff race. But it’s more likely that the final two wildcard spots are filled by current 7-7 teams. Here’s how their remaining schedules compare to the Rams’:
- Buccaneers: vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints, at Panthers.
- Vikings: vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions.
- Seahawks: at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals.
- Saints: at Rams, at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons.
Rams playoff scenarios
If the Rams win each of their final three games, they would earn the No. 6 seed as long as the Vikings don’t also win out. Then, if the Lions finish the season 2-1 or 1-2, the Rams-Lions first-round matchup would be set.
But it’s no easy task to go on the road and beat the 49ers, even if the No. 1 seed has been clinched. If we assume the Rams don’t win in San Francisco, Thursday night’s game becomes critically important for their playoff hopes.
Los Angeles should be a slight favorite to win on the road in New York next week, so the Saints game could really be the difference between a 9-8 record and an 8-9 record for the Rams.
Finishing 8-9 wouldn’t necessarily eliminate the Rams from playoff contention, but they would need quite a bit of help from the Vikings, Seahawks, Saints, Packers, and Falcons.
If the Rams win their next two games against the Saints and Giants, all they would need is one loss each by the Seahawks, Saints, and Packers to secure the No. 7 seed. Two losses by the Vikings would bump the Rams up to the No. 6 seed in that scenario.
So, let’s summarize.
If the Rams finish the season 3-0, they would:
- Earn the No. 6 seed if the Vikings lose one more game.
- Earn the No. 7 seed if the Vikings also finish 3-0.
If the Rams finish the season 2-1, they would:
- Earn the No. 6 seed if the Seahawks, Saints, and Packers each lose one more game AND the Vikings lose two more games.
- Earn the No. 7 seed if all but one of the criteria above play out.
- Miss the playoffs if the Seahawks, Saints, and/or Packers finish 3-0 and the Vikings finish at least 2-1 OR if two of the Seahawks, Saints, and/or Packers finish 3-0.
If the Rams finish the season 1-2, they would:
- Earn the No. 6 seed if the Seahawks, Saints, and Packers each lose two more games AND the Vikings lose all three games AND the Falcons lose one more game.
- Earn the No. 7 seed if all but one of the criteria above play out.
- Miss the playoff if any two (or more) of the criteria above don’t play out.
If the Rams finish the season 0-3, they would:
- Probably be doomed.
It’s no surprise that the scenario for the Rams to get into the playoffs with a 1-2 finish seems very unlikely, so with that trip to San Francisco looming in Week 18, Thursday night feels like the biggest game of their season.
If Stafford can’t pull off a win, the Rams will be on the brink of elimination. If he does, the road to Ford Field comes into much clearer focus.
