DETROIT – With two weeks left in the regular season, the Detroit Lions are in a three-way tie for the best record in the NFC, and that means several tiebreakers could come into play.
The Lions, 49ers, and Eagles are all 11-4, while the Cowboys are 10-5. No other team in the conference can mathematically catch the Lions.
READ: How Lions can get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd playoff seed in final 2 weeks
We’re going to go through all the possible tiebreaker scenarios between the Lions and those three teams and determine who would get which seed in those scenarios.
Let’s start at the very top.
Lions vs. 49ers
Even after their loss to the Ravens on Monday night, the 49ers are the heavy favorite to land the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If they win their final two games against the Commanders and Rams, they will wrap up a first-round bye.
San Francisco has a head-to-head win over the Eagles, but the 49ers and Lions didn’t meet on the field this season, so that triggers the second tiebreaker: overall conference record.
The Lions are 7-3 in the NFC, while the 49ers are 9-1. So there’s no possible situation where these two teams finish with the same record and the Lions win the tiebreaker.
NOTE: In a three-way tie between the Lions, 49ers, and Eagles, the 49ers would still get the No. 1 seed and then the other two teams would be compared as we break down below.
Lions vs. Cowboys
The Lions and Cowboys aren’t currently tied, but that can change next week when they meet head-to-head.
And that’s pretty much all you need to know about a possible Lions-Cowboys tiebreaker: They play each other this weekend.
If the Lions beat the Cowboys on Saturday night, there’s no way the two teams can finish the season tied because the Lions will be two games ahead with one week remaining.
But if the Cowboys beat the Lions, both teams will be 11-5 with one week left. Obviously -- whether they both finish 12-5 or 11-6 -- Dallas would own the tiebreaker over Detroit because of that head-to-head win.
That wouldn’t necessarily guarantee the Cowboys get a better seed than the Lions, though. Even if the Lions and Cowboys are tied, but the Eagles win the NFC East Division, the Lions would get the No. 3 seed as the third-best division winner while the Cowboys would be the No. 5 seed as the top wildcard.
But like with the 49ers, there’s no scenario where the Lions can win a tiebreaker over the Cowboys.
Lions vs. Eagles
This is, by far, the most interesting potential tiebreaker situation.
The Lions and Eagles could end up tied with three possible identical records: 13-4, 12-5, or 11-6.
Lions vs. Eagles at 13-4
The simplest scenario is that both teams win their final two games, and that would be the perfect situation for the Lions.
Since the Lions and Eagles didn’t play head-to-head, and since they would both finish 9-3 in conference games, the tiebreaker would move to record against common opponents.
When the season ends, the Lions and Eagles will have each played six games against mutual opponents: the Buccaneers, Chiefs, Seahawks, Vikings, and Cowboys. The Lions will have played the Vikings twice, and the Eagles have played the Cowboys twice.
Philadelphia has already played its six games against these opponents and finished 4-2 with one loss to the Cowboys and a loss to the Seahawks.
The Lions have only played four of their six games against these opponents, with a 3-1 record and a loss to the Seahawks.
So if the Lions win their final two games against the Cowboys and Vikings, they will finish 5-1 against their “common opponents” with the Eagles, and therefore win the tiebreaker.
Lions vs. Eagles at 11-6
I know, I’m going out of order by skipping from the 13-4 scenario to the 11-6 scenario, but this one is simple so I want to get it out of the way quickly before we dive into the much more complex hypothetical below.
If the Lions and Eagles both lose their last two games, the Cowboys will win the NFC East because they will either finish 12-5 or 11-6 with a superior divisional record than the Eagles.
So the Cowboys would get the No. 2 seed, the Lions would get the No. 3 seed, and the Eagles would get the No. 5 seed.
Even though the Eagles would have a better record (4-2) than the Lions (3-3) against their common opponents, the Eagles would not be a division winner, so they would fall to the top wildcard spot.
Lions vs. Eagles at 12-5
This is the most difficult tiebreaker to predict, because if the Lions and Eagles both finish 12-5, that means they will have identical records against the conference and against their mutual opponents.
So the tiebreaker would move to strength of victory.
Strength of victory is the combined record of all the teams someone has defeated. So the Lions’ strength of victory is the combined records of the Chiefs, Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Buccaneers, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Saints, Broncos, and Vikings (72-93).
The Eagles’ strength of victory is the combined records of the Patriots, Vikings, Buccaneers, Commanders, Rams, Dolphins, Commanders (yes, counted twice), Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, and Giants (79-86).
There are four combinations of ways the Lions and Eagles could both lose one more game and finish tied:
- Lions lose to Cowboys, Eagles lose to Giants.
- Lions lose to Cowboys, Eagles lose to Cardinals.
- Lions lose to Vikings, Eagles lose to Giants.
- Lions lose to Vikings, Eagles lose to Cardinals.
Here would be the updated strength of victory numbers for the Lions and Eagles in those four scenarios:
- Lions: 79-101, Eagles: 82-98.
- Lions: 79-101, Eagles: 84-96.
- Lions: 82-98, Eagles: 82-98.
- Lions: 82-98, Eagles: 84-96
It’s no surprise that beating the better of their two remaining opponents (Cowboys and Vikings) would help the Lions in terms of strength of victory. It’s also worth noting that these records don’t take into account what both teams’ opponents would do in their own final games.
When comparing the strength of victory between the Lions and Eagles, we can obviously eliminate from the equation the teams that both of them have defeated, because those records will cancel each other out. That allows us to simplify the future outlook, somewhat.
Both the Lions and Eagles defeated the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Vikings (once), so we can remove those games from future consideration.
If the Lions beat the Cowboys next week, that win will cancel out because the Eagles also have one win over the Cowboys. If the Lions beat the Vikings in Week 18, that win will not cancel out because the Eagles only beat the Vikings once, and that canceled out the Lions’ Week 16 win over the Vikings, but wouldn’t cancel out a second.
Let’s dive a bit deeper into these four scenarios, one at a time.
1. Lions lose to Cowboys, Eagles lose to Giants
- Starting SOV -- Lions: 79-101, Eagles: 82-98.
In this scenario, the Vikings would be added to the Lions’ list of victories and the Cardinals would be added to the Eagles’ list of victories. This would also keep the Cowboys win on the list for the Eagles.
So in the final two weeks, the Lions would need the teams on the top line below to finish at least three games better than the teams on the bottom line below:
- Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Saints, Broncos, and Vikings.
- Patriots, Commanders, Rams, Dolphins, Commanders (counted twice), Cowboys, Bills, Giants, and Cardinals.
Since the Eagles lose to the Giants in this scenario, they get an extra win on their SOV for their previous win over the Giants, while the Lions take a loss on their SOV for beating the Vikings a second time. The Eagles also get a win for the Cowboys beating the Lions.
- Updated: Lions 79-102, Eagles 84-98.
The Eagles would also add four wins and four losses to their SOV because the Patriots play the Bills, the Rams play the Giants, the Dolphins play the Bills, and the Commanders play the Cowboys. Assuming there are no ties, the Eagles’ opponents would go 1-1 in each of those games.
NOTE: A Commanders win over the Cowboys would be better for the Eagles because they beat the Commanders twice, so that would add a 2-1 record to their SOV instead of a 1-2 record. But either way, there is going to be at least one win and one loss, so we can add those now.
The Lions can add six wins and six losses in this scenario because the Falcons play the Bears and Saints, the Packers play the Bears and Vikings, and the Broncos play the Raiders and Chargers.
- Updated: Lions 85-108, Eagles 88-102.
That means the Lions would need at least three more of the top following results than the Eagles get of the bottom following results:
Lions rooting interests:
- Panthers (away) beat Jaguars.
- Panthers (home) beat Buccaneers.
- Raiders (away) beat Colts.
- Chargers (home) beat Chiefs.
- Saints (away) beat Buccaneers.
Eagles rooting interests:
- Patriots (home) beat Jets.
- Commanders (home) beat 49ers -- would be worth two wins.
- Commanders (home) beat Cowboys.
- Rams (away) beat 49ers.
- Dolphins (away) beat Ravens.
- Cardinals (home) beat Seahawks.
As you can see, every single one of those Lions outcomes seem unlikely, especially when they need wins from the Panthers and Chargers. So if the Lions lose to the Cowboys and the Eagles lose to the Giants, it’s very unlikely for the Lions to win the tiebreaker.
2. Lions lose to Cowboys, Eagles lose to Cardinals
- Starting SOV -- Lions: 79-101, Eagles: 84-96.
In this scenario, the Vikings would still be added to the Lions’ list of victories, but a second Giants win would be added to the Eagles’ list of victories. This would also keep the Cowboys win on the list for the Eagles.
So in the final two weeks, the Lions would need the teams on the top line below to finish at least five games better than the teams on the bottom line below:
- Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Saints, Broncos, and Vikings.
- Patriots, Commanders, Rams, Dolphins, Commanders (counted twice), Cowboys, Bills, Giants, and Giants (counted twice).
Since the Eagles beat the Giants in this scenario, they add two extra losses on their SOV since the Giants are counted twice, while the Lions take a loss on their SOV for beating the Vikings a second time (one Vikings loss canceled out because Eagles also beat them). The Eagles also get a win for the Cowboys beating the Lions.
- Updated: Lions 79-102, Eagles 85-98.
The Eagles would also add four wins and four losses to their SOV because the Patriots play the Bills, the Rams play the Giants, the Dolphins play the Bills, and the Commanders play the Cowboys.
NOTE: Like we said with the Commanders vs. Cowboys game above, a Giants win over the Rams would be better for the Eagles because they beat the Giants twice, so that would add a 2-1 record to their SOV instead of a 1-2 record. But either way, there is going to be at least one win and one loss, so we can add those now.
The Lions again add six wins and six losses because the Falcons play the Bears and Saints, the Packers play the Bears and Vikings, and the Broncos play the Raiders and Chargers.
- Updated: Lions 85-108, Eagles 89-102.
That means the Lions would need at least four more of the top results than the Eagles get of the bottom results:
Lions rooting interests:
- Panthers (away) beat Jaguars.
- Panthers (home) beat Buccaneers.
- Raiders (away) beat Colts.
- Chargers (home) beat Chiefs.
- Saints (away) beat Buccaneers.
Eagles rooting interests:
- Patriots (home) beat Jets.
- Giants (home) beat Rams.
- Commanders (home) beat 49ers -- would be worth two wins.
- Commanders (home) beat Cowboys.
- Rams (away) beat 49ers.
- Dolphins (away) beat Ravens.
In terms of a tiebreaker with the Eagles at 12-5, this is the worst possible scenario for the Lions.
3. Lions lose to Vikings, Eagles lose to Giants
- Starting SOV -- Lions: 82-98, Eagles: 82-98.
As you can see, if the Lions beat the Cowboys, this tiebreaker becomes a whole lot more interesting.
The Vikings would be eliminated from both teams’ list of opponents because the Lions and Eagles would each have exactly one win over the Vikings, therefore canceling them out. The Cowboys would be removed for the same reason.
In this scenario, the Eagles add the Cardinals as a win.
So in the final two weeks, the Lions would need the teams on the top line below to finish with at least the same record as the teams on the bottom line below:
- Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Saints, and Broncos.
- Patriots, Commanders, Rams, Dolphins, Commanders (counted twice), Bills, Giants, and Cardinals.
Since the Eagles lose to the Giants in this scenario, they get an extra win on their SOV for their previous win over the Giants. The Vikings win over the Lions and the Cowboys loss to the Lions would count against both teams and therefore be irrelevant.
- Updated: Lions 82-98, Eagles 83-98.
The Eagles would also add three wins and three losses to their SOV because the Patriots play the Bills, the Rams play the Giants, and the Dolphins play the Bills.
The Lions can add five wins and five losses in this scenario because the Falcons play the Bears and Saints, the Broncos play the Raiders and Chargers, and the Packers play the Bears.
- Updated: Lions 87-103, Eagles 86-101.
That means the Lions would need at least as many of the top results as the Eagles get of the bottom results:
Lions rooting interests:
- Panthers (away) beat Jaguars.
- Panthers (home) beat Buccaneers.
- Raiders (away) beat Colts.
- Chargers (home) beat Chiefs.
- Saints (away) beat Buccaneers.
- Packers (away) beat Vikings.
Eagles rooting interests:
- Patriots (home) beat Jets.
- Commanders (home) beat 49ers -- would be worth two wins.
- Commanders (home) beat Cowboys -- would be worth two wins.
- Rams (away) beat 49ers.
- Dolphins (away) beat Ravens.
4. Lions lose to Vikings, Eagles lose to Cardinals
- Starting SOV -- Lions: 82-98, Eagles: 84-96.
The Vikings and Cowboys would remain eliminated from both teams’ lists. In this scenario, the Giants become a double win for the Eagles.
So in the final two weeks, the Lions would need the teams on the top line below to finish at least two games better than the teams on the bottom line below:
- Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Saints, Broncos.
- Patriots, Commanders, Rams, Dolphins, Commanders (counted twice), Bills, Giants, and Giants (counted twice).
Since the Eagles beat the Giants again in this scenario, they get two extra losses on their SOV to account for both wins over the Giants. The Vikings win over the Lions and the Cowboys loss to the Lions would count against both teams and therefore be irrelevant.
- Updated: Lions 82-98, Eagles 84-98.
The Eagles would also add four wins and four losses to their SOV because the Patriots play the Bills, the Rams play the Giants, the Dolphins play the Bills, and the Commanders play the Cowboys.
The Lions would add five wins and five losses in this scenario because the Falcons play the Bears and Saints, the Broncos play the Raiders and Chargers, and the Packers play the Bears.
- Updated: Lions 87-103, Eagles 88-102.
That means the Lions would need at least one more of the top results than the Eagles get of the bottom results:
Lions rooting interests:
- Panthers (away) beat Jaguars.
- Panthers (home) beat Buccaneers.
- Raiders (away) beat Colts.
- Chargers (home) beat Chiefs.
- Saints (away) beat Buccaneers.
- Packers (away) beat Vikings.
Eagles rooting interests:
- Patriots (home) beat Jets.
- Giants (home) beat Rams.
- Commanders (home) beat 49ers -- would be worth two wins.
- Commanders (home) beat Cowboys -- would be worth two wins.
- Rams (away) beat 49ers.
- Dolphins (away) beat Ravens.
The Eagles have a slight edge in this scenario, but the Lions would definitely have a chance.
5. What if Lions and Eagles finish tied in SOV?
If the Lions and Eagles both finish 12-5 with the exact same strength of victory, the tiebreaker would move to overall strength of schedule.
We can remove the teams’ five common opponents: Chiefs, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Cowboys (one for the Eagles), and Vikings (one for the Lions).
That leaves 12 games apiece that would determine which team has a higher overall strength of schedule. These are the combined records of those teams right now:
- Lions: 80-100.
- Eagles: 80-100.
I kid you not: The combined record of the Lions’ 12 unique opponents is exactly the same as the combined record of the Eagles’ 12 unique opponents:
- Lions opponents: Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Ravens, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Packers, Saints, Bears, Broncos, and Vikings.
- Eagles opponents: Patriots, Commanders, Rams, Jets, Dolphins, Commanders, Bills, 49ers, Cowboys, Giants, Cardinals, and Giants.
So we do the same thing we did for the strength of victory breakdown. We can add one win and one loss for every instance where two of the Lions’ opponents play each other and where two of the Eagles’ opponents play each other (we do not plan for tie games).
The Eagles add seven wins and seven losses for the following games: Patriots vs. Bills, Patriots vs. Jets, Commanders vs. Cowboys, Rams vs. Giants, Dolphins vs. Bills, Rams vs. 49ers, and Commanders vs. 49ers.
The Lions add six wins and six losses for the following games: Falcons vs. Bears, Falcons vs. Saints, Packers vs. Bears, Packers vs. Vikings, Raiders vs. Broncos, and Chargers vs. Broncos.
Updated: Lions 86-106, Eagles 87-107.
The following games would then determine the final strength of schedule metrics.
Lions rooting interests:
- Bears (home) beat Falcons.
- Packers (away) beat Vikings.
- Panthers (away) beat Jaguars.
- Panthers (home) beat Buccaneers.
- Ravens (home) beat Dolphins.
- Ravens (home) beat Steelers.
- Raiders (away) beat Colts.
- Chargers (home) beat Chiefs.
- Saints (away) beat Buccaneers.
- Vikings (away) beat Lions -- obviously the Lions don’t want this, but it would technically help them in strength of schedule.
Eagles rooting interests:
- Commanders (home) beat 49ers.
- Commanders (home) beat Cowboys.
- Giants (home) beat Rams.
- Jets (away) beat Browns.
- Dolphins (away) beat Ravens.
- Cowboys (home) beat Lions.
- Cardinals (home) beat Seahawks.
- Giants (home) beat Eagles -- obviously the Eagles don’t want this, but it would technically help them in strength of schedule.
- Cardinals (away) beat Eagles -- obviously the Eagles don’t want this, but it would technically help them in strength of schedule.
If the tiebreaker between the Lions and Eagles does somehow come down to strength of schedule, Week 18 will become a chaotic week of rooting interests for both fan bases.
