Lions playoff scenarios: How Detroit can get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd playoff seed in final 2 weeks

DETROIT – The Detroit Lions are tied for the top record in the NFC, and with two weeks to go, they can still end up with the No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seeds in the playoffs.

Detroit erased any doubt about the postseason on Christmas Eve by beating the Vikings to lock up the NFC North Division. Now, at worst, the Lions will finish third in the conference and host their first playoff game at Ford Field.

MORE: Breaking down all possible tiebreakers between Lions and Eagles, 49ers, or Cowboys

But thanks to a loss by the Eagles last week and a loss by the 49ers on Monday, the door is open for the Lions to do even better.

Here’s how the Lions can earn each of the top three seeds in the final two weeks.

How Lions can get No. 1 seed

As it stands, the Lions are in third place in the NFC despite having the same record as both the 49ers and Eagles. That’s because the 49ers have a better conference record and the Eagles have a higher strength of victory.

If Detroit wins its final two games, it can take over the tiebreaker with the Eagles (more on that in the next section), but it can’t win a tiebreaker over the 49ers.

So the only way for the Lions to finish atop the conference and earn a first-round bye is for the 49ers to lose again.

Here’s the most probable scenario to give the Lions the top seed:

• Lions beat Cowboys and Vikings.
• 49ers lose to Commanders and/or Rams.

It seems pretty simple, but it’s not very likely. The Lions are 6.5-point underdogs in Dallas next weekend, and the 49ers will be heavy favorites in Washington and against the Rams at home.

Still, that’s much more likely than the other two scenarios.

Here’s the second:

• Lions beat Cowboys and lose to Vikings.
• 49ers lose to both Commanders and Rams.
• Eagles lose to both Cardinals and Giants OR Eagles lose to Cardinals or Giants and finish with worse strength of victory than Lions.

Here’s the third scenario:

• Lions lose to Cowboys and beat Vikings.
• 49ers lose to both Commanders and Rams.
• Cowboys lose to Commanders.
• Eagles lose to Cardinals or Giants (but not both) and finish with worse strength of victory than Lions.

The third scenario is much more complicated than the second, because by losing to the Cowboys, the Lions would need the Eagles to win the NFC East so that head-to-head loss in Dallas doesn’t become a factor.

If the Cowboys win their final two games, the Eagles must also win out to seal the division, because a loss would give the Cowboys the tiebreaker of either a better divisional record (if the Eagles lose at the Giants) or a better conference record (if the Eagles lose to the Cardinals).

Since the Lions would need the Eagles to lose one more time to force a tiebreaker, but also need them to win the East, the Eagles would have to finish exactly 1-1 while the Cowboys lose to the Commanders. That would make the Lions and Eagles both 12-5 and the Cowboys 11-6.

How Lions can get No. 2 seed

The primary path to the No. 2 seed for the Lions is very straightforward.

Here’s all it would take:

• Lions beat Cowboys and Vikings.
• 49ers beat Commanders and Rams.

If the Lions and 49ers both win out, the Lions will finish second in the NFC. Both teams would be 13-4, and the 49ers would have an 11-1 record within the conference, compared to Detroit’s 9-3 record. That’s the primary tiebreaker absent a head-to-head meeting.

Even if Philadelphia also finished 13-4, the Lions would win the tiebreaker over the Eagles due to records against common opponents:

• The Eagles beat the Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Chiefs while losing to the Cowboys and Seahawks (4-2 record).
• In this scenario, the Lions would have beaten the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Vikings, Cowboys, and Vikings while losing to the Seahawks (5-1 record).

Technically, the Lions could still earn the No. 2 seed with a loss, but the equation would get much more complicated.

First of all, a loss to the Cowboys would bring that same twisted scenario above into play, where the Lions need the Eagles to win the NFC East but still lose one more game.

Here’s what the Lions would need to earn the No. 2 seed with a loss in Dallas:

• Lions lose to Cowboys and beat Vikings.
• Cowboys lose to Commanders.
• Eagles lose to Cardinals or Giants (but not both) and finish with worse strength of victory than Lions.

If the Lions beat the Cowboys but lose the final game of the season against the Vikings, the equation is slightly more hopeful.

Here’s what it would take:

• Lions beat Cowboys and lose to Vikings.
• Eagles lose to both Cardinals and Giants OR Eagles lose to Cardinals or Giants and finish with worse strength of victory than Lions.

So here’s the obvious question: How do the Lions and Eagles compare in strength of victory?

Strength of victory is the combined record of all the teams someone has defeated. So the Lions’ strength of victory is the combined records of the Chiefs, Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Buccaneers, Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Saints, Broncos, and Vikings (72-93).

The Eagles’ strength of victory is the combined records of the Patriots, Vikings, Buccaneers, Commanders, Rams, Dolphins, Commanders (yes, counted twice), Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, and Giants (79-86).

Now, there are four combinations of ways the Lions and Eagles could both lose one more game and finish tied:

1. Lions lose to Cowboys, Eagles lose to Giants.
2. Lions lose to Cowboys, Eagles lose to Cardinals.
3. Lions lose to Vikings, Eagles lose to Giants.
4. Lions lose to Vikings, Eagles lose to Cardinals.

Here would be the updated strength of victory numbers for the Lions and Eagles in those four scenarios:

1. Lions: 79-101, Eagles: 82-98.
2. Lions: 79-101, Eagles: 84-96.
3. Lions: 82-98, Eagles: 82-98.
4. Lions: 82-98, Eagles: 84-96

It’s no surprise that beating the better of their two remaining opponents (Cowboys and Vikings) would help the Lions in terms of strength of victory. It’s also worth noting that these records don’t take into account what both teams’ opponents would do in their own final games.

My point: The strength of victory between the Eagles and Lions is going to be very close if this tiebreaker comes into play.

How Lions can get No. 3 seed

This is the worst the Lions can finish this season, because they’re already three games ahead of the NFC South-leading Buccaneers and can’t fall below whoever wins that division.

Here’s the most likely way for the Lions to finish with the No. 3 seed:

• Lions lose to Cowboys or Vikings.
• Eagles beat Cardinals and Giants.

This is actually what I expect to happen over the final two weeks. An Eagles loss to the Cardinals or Giants would be pretty shocking, especially now that the Giants have another mess at quarterback.

Meanwhile, the Lions are really facing tall odds next week in Dallas, and that Vikings rematch won’t be easy, either.

Here’s a more specific hypothetical that would give the Lions the No. 3 seed:

• Lions lose to Cowboys.
• Cowboys beat Commanders.

If this happens, the Lions’ second game against the Vikings wouldn’t even matter. The Cowboys would finish 12-5 with a head-to-head win over the Lions, so even if the Eagles dropped one of their final two games, the Lions would lose the tiebreaker to the Cowboys for No. 2.

Here’s a less probable scenario:

• Lions beat Cowboys but lose to Vikings.
• Eagles beat both Cardinals and Giants OR lose to Cardinals or Giants (but not both) and finish with a better strength of victory than Lions.

If the Lions go on the road and beat the Cowboys but then lose their rematch with the Vikings, they’re a little more likely to back their way into the No. 2 seed, but it would still take some help from the Eagles.