DETROIT – The Detroit Lions have locked up a playoff spot, but there are still eight different teams they could face in the first round.
Detroit is the NFC North champion and will earn one of the top three seeds in the conference. Since the No. 1 seed receives a bye, we’re only going to focus on who the Lions could play if they earn the No. 2 or No. 3 seeds.
Other playoff scenario breakdowns:
If the Lions win their final two games, they will be the No. 2 seed in the NFC (as long as the 49ers don’t lose and drop behind the Lions). If the Lions lose both games, they will be the No. 3 seed. If they go 1-1, both possibilities are on the table, but the No. 3 seed is more likely.
Either way, the Lions would host either the No. 6 seed or the No. 7 seed in the wildcard round of the playoffs. That game would be at Ford Field the weekend of Jan. 13-14 (or the night of Jan. 15 if the Lions get the Monday Night Football playoff game).
There are eight teams in the NFC that could end up as the No. 6 or No. 7 seeds. Here’s a look at each of them:
Los Angeles Rams
- Current standing: 8-7 (No. 6 seed in NFC)
If the playoffs started today, the Lions would welcome Matthew Stafford back to Detroit for the first round of the playoffs.
The Rams have two road games remaining, one at the Giants and one at the 49ers. If they win both, they are guaranteed to be the No. 6 seed. If they win one, they’re in danger of falling out of the postseason.
Right now, Seattle is tied with the Rams for the sixth and seventh spots in the NFC, but the Rams won both head-to-head meetings, so they’ve locked up the tiebreaker. A Rams loss, however, would open the door for the Seahawks to jump into the No. 6 slot if they can beat the Steelers and Cardinals.
The Rams can also drop below the Vikings, because if the Vikings win their final two games against the Packers and Lions, they would have a better conference record than the Rams if the Rams lose another game.
The Packers could also pass the Rams via head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish 9-8.
The Rams own the tiebreaker over the Saints thanks to a head-to-head win.
So for the Rams to lock up a playoff spot with one more loss, they would need two of the following three things to happen:
- Seahawks lose one more game.
- Vikings lose one more game.
- Packers lose one more game.
If all three happened, the Rams would get the No. 6 seed. If two of three happened, the Rams would get the No. 7 seed.
If the Rams lose to both the Giants and 49ers, they’ll need a lot of help to get into the playoffs. It would bring the Falcons, Saints, and Bears into play, in addition to the Seahawks, Vikings, and Packers.
Seattle Seahawks
- Current standing: 8-7 (No. 7 seed in NFC)
The Seahawks are in more or less the same position as the Rams. If they win their last two games, they’ll lock up a playoff spot.
Any loss, though, would take the Seahawks’ fate out of their own hands. The Vikings are just one game behind and would win a tiebreaker due to conference record.
If the Seahawks lose one more game, they would need three of the following four things to happen in order to get into the playoffs:
- Rams lose to both the Giants and 49ers.
- Vikings lose one more game.
- Packers lose one more game OR finish behind Seahawks in strength of victory (Seahawks loss must be to Steelers to force that tiebreaker -- a Seahawks loss to Cardinals would give Packers the tiebreaker).
- Buccaneers beat Saints OR Buccaneers lose to Panthers OR Saints lose to Falcons OR Seahawks finish with better SOV than Saints.
Minnesota Vikings
- Current standing: 7-8 (No. 8 seed in NFC)
Last week wasn’t great for the Vikings. They went from No. 6 to No. 8 after a loss to the Lions because the Rams and Seahawks both won. Now Minnesota really needs a win against the Packers.
If the Vikings can beat the Packers and the Lions over the next two weeks, all they need is one loss by the Rams or Seahawks to clinch a playoff spot because of a superior conference record.
But if the Vikings finish 8-9, they’ll be in a tough spot. They would need four of the following five things to happen in order to get into the playoffs:
- Rams lose to both the Giants and 49ers.
- Seahawks lose to both the Steelers and Cardinals.
- Falcons lose one more game.
- Packers lose one more game.
- Saints lose one more game.
Atlanta Falcons
- Current standing: 7-8 (No. 9 seed in NFC)
The Falcons put together one of their most impressive performances this weekend, blowing out the Colts to stay alive in the playoff race.
If Atlanta can win its final two games against the Bears and Saints, it will own two important tiebreakers: the head-to-head against the Packers and Saints.
But the Falcons would still be in quite a bit of trouble. They can’t win tiebreakers with the Vikings, Rams, or Seahawks in that scenario. So those three teams would need to struggle down the stretch.
If the Falcons beat the Bears and Saints, they would need two of the following three things to happen in order to get into the playoffs:
- Rams lose to both the Giants and 49ers.
- Seahawks lose to both the Steelers and Cardinals.
- Vikings lose one more game.
It’s not likely that either the Rams or the Seahawks lose out, but if that happens, the Falcons have a legitimate chance.
Green Bay Packers
- Current standing: 7-8 (No. 10 seed in NFC)
The Packers almost messed around and lost to the two-win Panthers over the weekend, but they ultimately hung on and avoided what would have been a disastrous three-game losing streak.
Now Green Bay needs to find a way to win at Minnesota and against the Bears. If that happens, a 9-8 Packers team would have a chance to get into a wildcard spot.
If the Packers win out, they would only need two of the following three things to happen in order to get into the playoffs:
- Seahawks lose to Cardinals OR lose to Steelers and finish behind Packers in SOV.
- Rams lose one more game.
- Falcons lose one more game.
New Orleans Saints
- Current standing: 7-8 (No. 11 seed in NFC)
The Saints are the last of the 7-8 teams in the NFC because they have head-to-head losses against the Vikings, Packers, and Falcons. They also lost to the Rams. They’ll get another shot at Atlanta in Week 18, but that’s not a good spot to be in tiebreaker-wise.
If the Saints win their final two games against the Buccaneers and Falcons, they would win the NFC South and get the No. 4 seed if the Buccaneers also lose to the Panthers. But assuming that doesn’t happen, the Saints would be in play for a wildcard spot.
If the Saints win out, they would need three of the following four things to happen in order to get into the playoffs:
- Rams lose to both the Giants and 49ers.
- Seahawks lose to both the Steelers and Cardinals.
- Vikings lose one more game.
- Packers lose one more game.
As you can see, none of the paths to the postseason look very promising for the Saints.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Current standing: 8-7, NFC South leaders (No. 4 seed in NFC)
The only way the Lions can play the Buccaneers is if the Buccaneers fumble away their lead in the NFC South and settle for a wildcard spot.
For the Buccaneers to cough up their division lead, they have to lose to both the Saints and the Panthers the next two weeks. That would make the winner of the Saints-Falcons game in Week 18 the NFC South champ.
The Buccaneers can’t win a tiebreaker with the Seahawks at 8-9, so their only path to a wildcard would be through the No. 7 seed. Even then, the Rams would have to fall behind the Buccaneers in strength of victory to even give them a chance.
In this situation, the Buccaneers would be very unlikely to earn a wildcard spot, but it could still happen. They would need all three of the following things to happen:
- Rams lose to both the Giants and 49ers AND finish behind Buccaneers in SOV.
- Vikings lose one more game.
- Packers lose one more game.
The loser of the Saints-Falcons game would lose a “common opponents” tiebreaker to the Buccaneers, but the path to a wildcard spot would still be very difficult.
The Rams currently own a .425-.408 lead over the Buccaneers in SOV, and since we’re assuming neither team wins another game, the teams the Rams have already defeated in the past would need to perform much worse than the teams the Buccaneers have defeated to make up that ground in SOV.
Chicago Bears
- Current standing: 6-9 (No. 12 seed in NFC)
The Bears are one game away from elimination. They need to win their final two games to have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs.
Even if the Bears win their final two games they need every single one of these things to happen in order to make the playoffs:
- Rams lose to both the Giants and 49ers.
- Seahawks lose to both the Steelers and Cardinals.
- Vikings beat Packers OR Vikings lose to Lions.
- Saints lose to Buccaneers and Falcons.
In this scenario, the winner of the Vikings-Packers game would get the No. 6 seed and the Bears would get the No. 7 seed because of:
- A better conference record than the Rams.
- A better conference record than the Seahawks.
- The head-to-head tiebreaker over the Falcons.
- A better overall record than the Vikings-Packers loser.
- A better overall record than the Saints.
The Lions might prefer to play either the Packers or the Vikings in the first round if this happens, because they did not match up well with the Bears this season.
