DETROIT – There are two weeks left in the regular season, and even though the Detroit Lions have locked up a playoff spot, there’s still plenty to root for as they chase a top seed.
At best, the Lions can still earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. But the more realistic goal is to win the final two games and lock up the No. 2 seed, which would allow them to host a hypothetical second-round game instead of traveling to Philadelphia or Dallas.
Let’s get this out of the way first: What happens around the rest of the NFL won’t matter much if the Lions don’t take care of business against the Cowboys on Saturday. A loss technically would not eliminate them from getting a top-two seed, but they would need a whole lot of help.
Many of this week’s rooting interests have to do with potential tiebreaker scenarios involving the Eagles. The Lions own the tiebreaker if both teams finish 13-4, but if they both lose one more game and finish 12-5, the situation will become much more complex.
Useful explainers
We’ve spent most of this week breaking down all the possible scenarios facing the Lions in terms of playoff seeding. I will reference those breakdowns throughout this rooting guide, so here is a list of links:
- I also explained why the Lions are “third” instead of second in the NFC right now due to a standings technicality. That will change if the Lions win Saturday.
- Lastly, if you’re interested, a look at why the “Lions vs. Matthew Stafford” first-round matchup is very much a possibility.
Let’s dive into what Lions fans should root for this week.
Browns beat Jets
- Game details: 8:15 p.m. Thursday on Prime Video
- Importance: Extremely low
If you want some type of rooting interest for the Thursday Night Football game in Cleveland, I’ve got you covered -- but it’s very unlikely that this game will end up meaning anything to the Lions.
If you read through the entire Lions-Eagles tiebreaker breakdown, you’ll know that there’s a very, very small chance that the two teams could finish with identical strength of victory numbers. The tiebreaker would then move to strength of schedule, and since the Eagles played the Jets, a Jets loss would help the Lions.
Again, there are dozens of things that have to happen to make this game matter to the Lions, but hey, you never know in the NFL.
Lions beat Cowboys
- Game details: 8:15 p.m. Saturday on ABC/ESPN
- Importance: Extremely high
I’m sure you’ve already figured this one out.
If the Lions lose to the Cowboys, they will almost certainly receive the No. 3 seed in the NFC. To still have a chance at the No. 2 seed, they would not only need the Eagles to lose one of their last two games, but also for the Cowboys to lose next week against the 4-11 Commanders.
In other words: not happening.
Falcons beat Bears
- Game details: 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS (not airing locally)
- Importance: Very low
The Lions beat both the Bears and Falcons once, so this game has no bearing on the potential strength of victory tiebreaker with the Eagles. I will admit: since the Lions played the Bears twice, a Chicago win would help Detroit’s overall strength of schedule.
But in terms of rooting interests, I think the likelihood of that mattering is low enough that Lions fans should instead hope that the Falcons somehow find their way into the playoffs. A rematch with Atlanta in the first round would be much more attractive than having to host the red-hot Rams or those thorn-in-the-side Seahawks.
Falcons vs. Lions at Ford Field is the dream first-round scenario. Let’s keep it alive!
Raiders beat Colts
- Game details: 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS (not airing locally)
- Importance: Low
This is one of the five games that matter most to the Lions in the theoretical strength of victory tiebreaker against the Eagles.
Every Raiders win helps the Lions’ SOV and brings them a step closer to the Eagles. In fact, in the unlikely scenario where the Lions beat the Cowboys and lose to the Vikings, this game could be the difference in the Eagles-Lions tiebreaker, if the Eagles happen to drop one of their last two games.
Giants beat Rams
- Game details: 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX (not airing locally)
- Importance: Medium
If you’re someone who wants to see the Lions play Stafford in the first round, then you should root hard for the Rams in this game, because their playoff hopes likely hinge on what happens in New York.
Next week, the Rams have to travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers, and the 49ers very well might be fighting for a first-round bye.
So this Giants game could be the difference between 9-8 and 8-9 for the Rams.
But if you want the easiest possible first-round matchup for the Lions, you probably don’t want them to face a Rams team that has won five of its last six games, with the only loss coming on the road in overtime against the best team in the NFL (the 12-3 Ravens).
Cardinals beat Eagles
- Game details: 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX (not airing locally)
- Importance: Medium
The Eagles are favored by double digits at home against the 3-12 Cardinals, but the Lions would sure welcome an upset.
Even though it’s unlikely to come down to a strength of victory tiebreaker, that would be a very nice insurance policy for the Lions if they drop one of their last two games -- especially the Vikings game.
Saints beat Buccaneers
- Game details: 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX (not airing locally)
- Importance: Low
This is another one of those five games the Lions are counting on to surpass the Eagles in strength of victory.
Both the Lions and the Eagles beat the Buccaneers, so a Buccaneers win wouldn’t help either team in terms of SOV. But since the Lions also beat the Saints, a Saints win would be a point in their favor.
Commanders beat 49ers
- Game details: 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX (not airing locally)
- Importance: Very high
This game could be a blowout of epic proportions as the 49ers look to bounce back from a surprisingly lopsided home loss to the Ravens on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the Pistons have more wins than the Commanders since Oct. 25.
But if by some miracle there’s a 16 seed vs. 1 seed-type upset, the Lions would suddenly have a path to a first-round bye (unless they’ve already lost to the Cowboys by this point).
Panthers beat Jaguars
- Game details: 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS (not airing locally)
- Importance: Low
Both of the remaining Panthers games are on the Lions’ list of five outcomes they want to beat the Eagles in strength of victory.
It’s never good to have to root for the worst team in the NFL, but hey, the Panthers won last week and the Jaguars are on a four-game skid. You never know.
Ravens beat Dolphins
- Game details: 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS (this is our local early time slot game)
- Importance: Low
The Eagles beat the Dolphins earlier this season, so a Dolphins win would help the Eagles in a potential strength of victory tiebreaker against the Lions.
So Lions fans can turn on the only 1 p.m. game that’s airing in Metro Detroit and enjoy rooting for the 12-3 Ravens.
Steelers beat Seahawks
- Game details: 4:05 p.m. Sunday on FOX (this game is on locally)
- Importance: High
The Seahawks beat the Lions and the Eagles, so this game doesn’t matter for either the strength of victory or strength of schedule comparisons.
But the Seahawks are currently the Lions’ most likely first-round playoff opponent right now, and that’s a situation most fans probably want to avoid at all costs.
The Seahawks have defeated the Lions in all three seasons of the Dan Campbell era, including earlier this year at Ford Field. Don’t talk about the revenge factor, either, because that’s what fans said earlier this season after the Seahawks directly kept the Lions out of the playoffs a year ago.
It’s clear the Seahawks are not a good matchup for the Lions, and the fact that they were able to stay afloat (and even beat the Eagles) without Geno Smith makes them even more dangerous.
If the Seahawks beat the Steelers and Cardinals, the Lions lose to the Cowboys, and the Rams lose to the 49ers next week, the Lions will almost certainly host the Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs. A Steelers win on Sunday would help avoid that scenario.
Packers vs. Vikings: It depends
- Game details: 8:20 p.m. Sunday on NBC (Local 4)
- Importance: Medium
It’s hard to pick a side on this one.
If the Lions beat the Cowboys but lose their rematch with the Vikings, a Packers win over the Vikings would help because the Eagles also have one win over the Vikings. So while a Vikings win over the Packers would cancel out for both the Lions and Eagles in that scenario, a Packers win would only help the Lions.
But if the Lions lose to the Cowboys and beat the Vikings a second time, this Packers-Vikings game has no bearing on the Lions SOV comparison with the Eagles.
Then there’s the question of what a win or a loss would do for the Vikings motivation-wise heading into Week 18. If the Rams and Seahawks win this weekend and the Vikings lose to the Packers, the Vikings would be mathematically eliminated before their Week 18 game in Detroit. That’s a positive.
Lions fans also probably wouldn’t mind seeing the Packers knocked out of the playoff hunt -- not just because they’re a division rival, but also because that Thanksgiving Day game didn’t inspire a lot of confidence if the two teams somehow met in a playoff rematch. The Lions’ secondary made Jordan Love look like Aaron Rodgers.
So the Lions’ rooting interest in this game should be something like this:
- If the Lions win on Saturday and the Rams and Seahawks win on Sunday, root for the Packers so the Vikings are eliminated from contention before their Week 18 trip to Detroit.
- If the Lions win on Saturday but the Rams and/or Seahawks lose on Sunday, root for the Packers in case the Lions need that SOV tiebreaker against the Eagles.
- If the Lions lose on Saturday, root for the Vikings so the Packers are likely removed from the playoff picture.
Games that don’t matter to Lions
- Patriots at Bills: The Eagles beat both of these teams, so either way, they will get a win and a loss for their strength of victory.
- Titans at Texans: Neither the Lions nor the Eagles played either of these teams, so it won’t come up in any tiebreaker scenario.
- Chargers at Broncos: The Lions beat both of these teams, so either way, they will get a win and a loss for their strength of victory.
- Bengals at Chiefs (this game is on locally at 4:25 p.m. Sunday on CBS): The Lions and Eagles both beat the Chiefs, and neither team played the Bengals. So whatever happens in this game will cancel out for both teams.
