DETROIT – The Detroit Lions have already locked up a home playoff game, but the stakes are still incredibly high this weekend in Dallas if they hope to make a serious playoff run.
By now, you know the Lions will earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC if they win the final two games of the season against the Cowboys and the Vikings. We’ve said it like a thousand times.
What we haven’t talked about is why earning the No. 2 seed is so important.
I think Lions fans went into this season hoping the team could end two long droughts: A division title and a home playoff game. Now that those goals have been accomplished, the season already feels like a success.
But what if the Lions could do even more?
There’s one major difference between being the No. 2 seed and the No. 3 seed, and that’s the advantage of hosting a potential divisional round game between those two teams.
Let’s assume for now that the San Francisco 49ers win their final two games against the Commanders and Rams. That means they will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Lions and either the Eagles or Cowboys (whichever wins the NFC East) will finish second and third, setting up a potential divisional round matchup as long as both can survive home games against the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds.
If the Lions lose to the Cowboys and the Eagles drop one more game, the Lions would likely have to return to Dallas for the second round of the playoffs. They would be going to play the Cowboys in a stadium where they went 8-0 this season, as opposed to 4-5 on the road.
Dallas is a completely different team at home -- one of the most dangerous in the NFL. But on the road? The Cowboys lost to the 3-12 Cardinals by 12 points. Got blown out in San Francisco by 32. Didn’t even belong on the same field as the Bills in a three-touchdown defeat.
Home field advantage is incredibly important in the playoffs, especially against a team like Dallas.
Now, let’s say the Lions beat the Cowboys and lose to the Vikings. Then they would likely have to travel to Philadelphia for a hypothetical second-round matchup.
The Eagles are clearly a better home team, too, though the splits aren’t as severe as for the Cowboys. They’ve gone 6-1 at home this season and 5-3 on the road. They’ve lost to both Zach Wilson’s Jets and Drew Lock’s Seahawks on the road, while beating the likes of Miami, Buffalo, and Dallas at home.
When the Cowboys hosted the Eagles, they won by 20 points. When they went to Philadelphia, they lost by five. That’s a pretty strong indication of how both of those teams perform comparatively by venue.
The Lions have been one of the league’s most consistent home vs. road teams, with a 6-2 record on the road and a 5-2 record at Ford Field. But both of their likely second-round opponents play much worse away from home.
So while the Lions might have already accomplished what many fans wanted to see, Saturday is a chance to get greedy and set themselves up for a potential deep playoff run.
They only have to do what nobody else has done: Go into Dallas and win.
