DETROIT – The list of possible Detroit Lions playoff opponents is shrinking, but they could still play Matthew Stafford, the Green Bay Packers, or two other teams in the first round.
Unless the Lions win and both the Cowboys and Eagles lose this weekend, the Lions will be No. 3 seed in the NFC. That means they will host the second-best wildcard team at Ford Field.
But there’s still that small chance that the Lions jump up to No. 2, and that means any team that could finish as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed is a possible opponent for the Lions.
First of all, a few quick points:
- The Rams and Packers are the only possible No. 6 seeds and therefore the most likely first-round opponents for the Lions.
- The Buccaneers and Falcons are both alive for the NFC South title, but neither can earn a wildcard due to tiebreakers. So they are not possible first-round opponents for the Lions.
- The only scenario in which the Vikings make the playoffs includes them beating the Lions this weekend and getting the No. 7 seed (with some additional help). Since the Lions can’t be the No. 2 seed if they lose, the Lions and Vikings can no longer meet in the first round.
- The Saints and Seahawks are both still alive for the No. 7 seed, so they can only play the Lions in the first round if the Lions win, the Eagles lose to the Giants, and the Cowboys lose to the Commanders -- giving the Lions the No. 2 seed.
Here’s a ranking of Detroit’s possible opponents from most to least likely.
1. Los Angeles Rams
- My completely made-up likelihood: 55%
The most likely first-round opponent for the Lions is none other than Stafford’s Rams.
We’ve been talking for months about how this matchup could become a reality. Sure enough, if the playoffs started this weekend, it would feature a Rams-Lions clash in Detroit.
Even though the Rams are locked into a playoff spot, they haven’t yet clinched the No. 6 seed. This week, they could do so with an upset over the top-seeded 49ers.
That might not be quite as daunting as it sounds after the 49ers locked up a first-round bye. Quarterback Brock Purdy isn’t going to play, and who knows about San Francisco’s other top players, especially considering last season’s playoff run was derailed by injuries.
If the Rams win, they are the No. 6 seed. If they lose, they might be the No. 6 seed anyway.
The Rams own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks and Saints, who are both one game behind at 8-8. The only team that can catch the Rams and win a tiebreaker is Green Bay.
So this is what it would take for the No. 3 Lions to play the No. 6 Rams in the first round:
- Vikings win AND/OR Eagles win AND/OR Cowboys win.
- Rams win AND/OR Bears win.
That’s it. Seems pretty reasonable, right?
Technically, we have to include the other scenario, where the No. 2 Lions host the No. 7 Rams in the first round. Here’s what would have to happen:
- Lions beat Vikings.
- Commanders beat Cowboys.
- Giants beat Eagles.
- 49ers beat Rams.
- Packers beat Bears.
2. Green Bay Packers
- My completely made-up likelihood: 44%
Even if the Lions avoid Stafford, they’re probably going to end up facing another familiar opponent in the division-rival Packers.
The Packers own tiebreakers over the Seahawks (due to strength of victory) and Saints (due to conference record). If Green Bay beats the Bears on Sunday, the Seahawks and Saints will both be eliminated from wildcard contention.
As we’ve already discussed, the Packers’ path to the No. 6 seed is simple:
- Packers beat Bears.
- 49ers beat Rams.
Even if there was a multi-team tie between the Rams, Packers, Saints, and Seahawks, the Packers would come out on top. Seattle would be eliminated first of that group due to head-to-head losses to the Rams (the first step in the tiebreaking procedure is to eliminate all but one team from each division). Then the Packers would have a head-to-head sweep over the Saints and Rams.
The Packers could also earn the No. 7 seed if they beat the Bears and the Rams beat the 49ers.
If the Packers lose, they’re likely out of the playoffs. They would need the Falcons to beat the Saints, the Cardinals to beat the Seahawks, and the Lions to beat the Vikings. That would give the Packers the No. 7 seed.
3. Seattle Seahawks
- My completely made-up likelihood: 0.7%
Since the Seahawks can’t pass the Rams, their only path to the playoffs is through the No. 7 seed. So even if they do get in, a matchup with Detroit is extremely unlikely.
With their loss to the Steelers this weekend, the Seahawks not only fell into a tie with the Packers, they also forfeited their advantage over the Packers against “common opponents.” Now Seattle has no chance to win a potential tiebreaker over Green Bay because of the wide strength of victory gap.
But Seattle does own the tiebreaker over the Saints thanks to a superior conference record. So the Seahawks aren’t dead just yet.
Here’s how Seattle can get the No. 7 seed:
- Seahawks beat Cardinals.
- Bears beat Packers.
That’s not farfetched at all. The Seahawks are playing a 4-12 team, and the Packers are only 3-point favorites.
4. New Orleans Saints
- My completely made-up likelihood: 0.3%
New Orleans still has a chance to win the NFC South with a win over the Falcons and a Buccaneers loss to the Panthers. But the Panthers are 2-14 this season, so that seems unlikely.
The path to a wildcard spot is a little more probable, even though the Saints need a lot of help. They did themselves no favors by losing six conference games, making them last in the Packers-Seahawks-Saints trio.
But on a game-by-game level, a Saints playoff berth isn’t crazy. Here’s what they need to finish as the No. 7 seed:
- Saints beat Falcons.
- Bears beat Packers.
- Cardinals beat Seahawks.
- Buccaneers beat Panthers.
The Buccaneers and Saints are both favorites this weekend, while the Bears (+3) and Cardinals (+2.5) are slight underdogs. So none of the outcomes are impossible -- it’s getting all four that could be tricky.
Conclusion
As you can see, the first playoff game in Ford Field history is probably going to feature some serious pregame drama.
On one hand, the Lions could host the longtime face of their franchise, who was drafted No. 1 overall and spent 12 seasons as the starting quarterback before being traded and winning a Super Bowl elsewhere. Don’t forget the Rams also drafted Jared Goff at No. 1, and he spent the first 69 games of his career with them.
If it’s the Packers, the Lions will try to bounce back from their loss on Thanksgiving Day, when Green Bay avenged a pair of painful defeats over the past calendar year. The Lions eliminated the Packers from the postseason and ushered Aaron Rodgers out of town a year ago, and then won at Lambeau Field in primetime earlier this season.
Either way, more than just a spot in the divisional round will be at stake.
