ANN ARBOR, Mich. – The Michigan basketball program is in a dark place right now.
Most of the fan base is distracted by the undefeated football team’s march to the national championship game. But next week, when the time comes to check up on Juwan Howard’s team, they’re not going to like what they see.
Sandwiched around Monday’s epic Rose Bowl victory were two embarrassing home losses for the basketball program. The Wolverines were completely outplayed by McNeese on Dec. 29 and then turned around and lost to Minnesota on Thursday.
Unfortunately, those aren’t even the worst stains on the Michigan resume. Back in November, the Wolverines dropped a home game to Long Beach State -- a team that has lost to the likes of Portland, Illinois State, Louisiana, and Cal State Northridge so far this year.
Michigan is 6-8 and spiraling toward a second-straight season without an NCAA Tournament bid. And perhaps its first losing record in 14 years.
Much like with Brady Hoke in football, Howard’s teams have gotten worse by the year. After COVID wiped out the end of his first season, Howard made the Elite 8 in 2021, then the Sweet 16 in 2022, then the NIT in 2023.
The obvious difference between Hoke and Howard is what they inherited. When Howard first arrived, Michigan was one of the most consistent basketball programs in the country.
In the nine seasons leading up to John Beilein’s untimely departure, Michigan went to the NCAA Tournament eight times, played in two national championship games, and won four Big Ten titles -- two regular season and two tournament.
The Wolverines went 63-15 in the two seasons before Howard was hired and won at least 23 games in five of the six years before that. They were perennial Big Ten and national championship contenders.
And now, they are not. The further we get from the Beilein era, the farther this program has fallen.
The first few years of Howards tenure looked promising. With the core that Beilein left, the Wolverines came inches from a Final Four appearance in Howard’s first NCAA Tournament. But then, after the departure of Isaiah Livers, Franz Wagner, and one-year transfers Chaundee Brown and Mike Smith, the quality of basketball started to slip.
Michigan’s mediocre 2021-22 season was largely forgiven when it upset fifth-seeded Tennessee in the second round of the Big Dance. But upon review, that year was the first warning sign. The team went just 17-14 in the regular season and settled for a No. 11 seed -- not exactly the standard that had been set.
But all that really matters is making the tournament, and if Michigan was going to be more of a middling program that got in every year and made an occasional run, that probably would have been fine for most people.
Then last season happened. Michigan missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015, and they did so with two first-round draft picks and Player of the Year candidate Hunter Dickinson on the roster.
How is that possible? An inability to close out games, mostly. But Michigan also had an offensive identity crisis and sporadic inconsistency on defense and on the boards.
Without Dickinson, Jett Howard, and Kobe Bufkin, those problems have gotten even worse. This year’s team has one of its worst defenses in memory. Long Beach State put up 94 points and McNeese ran layup drills while the Wolverines stood by and watched.
On offense, Howard has a few good shooters and tries to run sets through Olivier Nkamhoua in the post, but the more the players change (and they have changed a lot), the more Michigan looks the same.
The Wolverines still can’t close out games. They can’t get defensive stops in big moments. And when they need a basket, there’s no go-to guy or clear offensive identity.
A program that was just years ago a mainstay in national title talks has become completely irrelevant. An afterthought. And there’s no sign that things are going to change.
And if things aren’t going to change on the court, then they need to change on the sideline.
I don’t say this lightly because Howard is, by all accounts, an outstanding person. He’s an incredible ambassador for the university and an involved member of the community. Yes, there have been issues with opposing coaches during a couple of heated postgames, but when someone is universally beloved by seemingly everyone they know, that tells you more about them than their worst moments.
All that said, Howard would be the first to admit this is a results-based business, and -- football school or not -- Michigan’s basketball results should not involve missing NCAA Tournaments and losing to the likes of Central Michigan and Long Beach State.
In the past three years, Howard has had five-star players like Caleb Houstan, Moussa Diabate, and Jett Howard. He’s hand-picked transfers like DeVante’ Jones, Joey Baker, and Jaelin Llewellyn. He’s even had a few long-tenured guys like Hunter Dickinson and Terrance Williams.
None if it has worked, and many of the problems have stayed the same. That seems to point toward the one constant throughout all of this: the coaching staff.
This isn’t all on Howard. It doesn’t seem like the staff around him has done a good job, either. There’s no LaVall Jordan on the bench developing guys like Trey Burke and Derrick Walton Jr. Phil Martelli was the acting head coach when Michigan lost to Long Beach State, after all.
It’s difficult to part with a program icon like Howard, not only because of who he is, but also because of his connection to the school’s most iconic era. It’s not quite as strong now, but when Howard was hired, Jalen Rose and Jimmy King were around the Crisler Center all the time, and even Chris Webber seemed open to a return.
It’s hard to say whether firing Howard would further sever the ties between Michigan and the Fab Five, because as much as those guys understand that losing has consequences, they also love their former teammate. And that relationship has already been strained.
But at the end of the day, that relationship is nowhere near as important as getting the program back on track. Sitting in the half-empty arena for home games this season is a jarring contrast to what this program has been and still can be.
Howard is a school legend, but if Michigan is missing NCAA Tournaments and embarrassing itself against mid-major teams, then something has to change.
There was a time in 2017 when it looked like Beilein’s run had ended. Michigan missed the tournament in 2015, snuck in as a “last four” team in 2016, and then started 14-9 in 2017. His team responded by winning 12 of the next 14 games, including a Big Ten Tournament title and a Sweet 16 run.
Maybe Howard can lead a similar turnaround. But if not, it’s obvious what Warde Manuel has to do.
Even though it’s far from easy.
