DETROIT – The start of spring training is less than a week away, and the Detroit Tigers could be a sneaky underdog with a very young roster this season.
Sure, the 2023 season had its warts. Riley Greene and Tarik Skubal missed months with injuries. Spencer Torkelson got off to a slow start. Javier Baez is still on the team.
But many of the young players also showed promising signs, and if they take steps forward in 2024, the Tigers should at the very least be a fun team to watch for the first time in... well, the first time in quite awhile.
Pitchers and catchers report to Lakeland on Wednesday, Feb. 14. That’s only five days away! Before we actually get a look at the players, I’m going to take my first stab at the Opening Day starting lineup.
1. Mark Canha, LF
- 2023 stats (with Mets and Brewers): .262 average/.355 on-base percentage/.400 slugging, 11 homers, 25 doubles, 11 stolen bases, 49 walks to 79 strikeouts in 507 plate appearances.
Who in the world is going to lead off for the Tigers? I honestly have no idea, but I’m going to start this prediction off by swinging for the fences: How about Mark freaking Canha?
If I was telling you who I think should lead off and not who I think will lead off, the answer would definitely be Canha, even though he’s not your prototypical “young, speedy guy.”
The Tigers don’t have many players who get on base at a high rate. Last season, among players who had more than 200 at-bats, only two posted OBPs north of .330, which isn’t an outstanding number to begin with. The MLB average for 2023 was .320, and only three full-time Tigers starters reached that mark.
Which brings me back to Canha. Look, whatever your feelings are about speed at the top of the lineup, the leadoff man’s single most important job is to get on base.
And Mark Canha can -- nay, he WILL -- get on base.
Since the start of the 2019 season -- a sample size of 2,414 plate appearances for the soon-to-be 35-year-old -- Canha has posted an OBP of .370. That would have led the Tigers by a full 21 points over Riley Greene last season.
But more important than that overall number is his consistency. Canha never -- and I mean never -- has a bad season in terms of getting on base. His OBPs since 2019, in order: .396, .387, .358, .367, and .355.
The Tigers have had two players post a better OBP than Canha’s worst OBP in that span: Robbie Grossman’s .357 in 2021 and Jeimer Candelario’s .369 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
Canha isn’t going to steal a bunch of bases, though he was successful on 11 of 12 attempts last season. But he’s 63rd percentile in sprint speed (solidly above league average) and a very smart overall player.
The Tigers don’t have an obvious alternative, so why not let the most proven player have the first shot?
2. Riley Greene, RF
- 2023 stats: .288/.349/.447, 11 homers, 19 doubles, 7 steals, 35 BB/114 K in 416 PA.
It looked like Greene was well on his way to becoming the Tigers’ best player last season when he hurt his elbow on a diving catch and missed the final month of the season.
Over his final 71 games, Green hit .311 with a .372 OBP and 30 extra-base hits. The most encouraging sign was that he started to cut down on a bit of an alarming strikeout rate.
Greene spent almost the entire 2023 season in the No. 2 hole for the Tigers, and that makes a lot of sense for next year because this is the spot where teams should bat their best hitter.
If he gets back to form, Greene has a chance to be a positive in batting average, on-base percentage, power, and speed -- a combination the Tigers haven’t had since... Ian Kinsler?
Greene consistently hit the ball hard last season, ranking in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity and the 82nd percentile in hard-hit rate as a 22-year-old. He also grades out as a strong base runner, even though his stolen base total isn’t eye-popping.
If he can cut back on the strikeouts over a full season -- even just to around 23% -- he could be an All-Star caliber hitter.
Why do I have him in right field? Two reasons: health and production. As impressive as some of those flashy plays were in center field last season, Greene actually graded out below average as a defender. And Sept. 1 wasn’t the first time he got hurt making an incredible defensive play.
The Tigers would gladly trade a couple of those web gems to have Greene on the field for 150+ games. That’s also an easier decision to justify when there’s a better defensive center fielder on the roster (more on that later).
3. Spencer Torkelson, 1B
- 2023 stats: .233/.313/.446, 31 homers, 34 doubles, 3 steals, 67 BB/171 K in 684 PA.
While Greene was out for the final month, Torkelson spent some time batting in the No. 2 hole, but I think he fits perfectly into this slot if everyone is healthy for the start of the regular season.
For one, A.J. Hinch would love the idea of planting his best right-handed power hitter in between two lefties at the heart of the lineup. Torkelson led the team by a wide margin in home runs, and this spot would give him plenty of at-bats with men on base, assuming Canha and Greene repeat their typical OBP marks.
Torkelson’s overall numbers kind of stunk last season, but they also don’t tell the whole story. He hit 14 home runs in his final 45 games with a .342 OBP. Don’t forget: He was 23 years old and logging nearly 700 plate appearances for the first time in an MLB season.
Every step of his journey through the minor leagues, Torkelson experienced growing pains but eventually found his footing and displayed the valuable combination of power and plate discipline that the Tigers craved when they drafted him No. 1 overall.
Why did anyone expect that trend to change when he got to the toughest level of them all? Torkelson needed an adjustment period, and that period might have lasted a little longer than many fans liked, but it was worth the wait.
Torkelson hits the ball incredibly hard -- exactly the numbers you’d hope to see from a first-base slugger. He was 87th percentile or better last season in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. And those numbers include the 100+ games where he really struggled.
Despite the strikeouts, signs actually point to Torkelson having a good eye at the plate, too. His minor-league and college track records suggest no strikeout issues, and he was 80th percentile in chase rate last year -- meaning he almost never left the strike zone.
If anything, Torkelson’s primary issue was swinging and missing at pitches inside the strike zone. That, to me, sounds like a player who was going to the plate a bit unsure of himself. As he enters this season with more than 1,000 MLB plate appearances under his belt, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take another step forward.
4. Kerry Carpenter, DH
- 2023 stats: .278/.340/.471, 20 homers, 17 doubles, 6 steals, 32 BB/115 K in 459 PA.
Was the 2023 season for Kerry Carpenter a fluke? The batted ball data says no. The minor-league track record says no. The plate discipline, well, raises some concern.
Carpenter forced the Tigers’ hand last season through his production in 2022. He hit 30 home runs with a .313 batting average and .380 OBP in 98 games between Double-A and Triple-A and then posted a .795 OPS in 31 games with the big-league club.
I was a big proponent of giving Carpenter everyday at-bats last spring, but his first full season went much better than even I could have imagined. He hit 20 home runs and totaled 39 extra-base hits in 459 plate appearances, all while batting .278 with a .340 OBP.
Now, his expected numbers suggest he should have been more of a .258 hitter with a .460 slugging percentage. But that’s still well above average production.
Carpenter has some strikeout concerns, but he also has an ability to hit the ball to all fields. Six of his 20 homers were hit well to the left side of center field, and he’s capable of spraying the ball that way for a base hit, too.
Carpenter is a 70th percentile runner, and I’m not resigned to him spending the rest of his career as a designated hitter, either. Though there were some bad moments in 2023, his overall defensive metrics aren’t disastrous, and his arm is incredibly strong.
If he handles himself well in the preseason, I could see the Tigers having Carpenter start the year in right field, with Greene shifting over to left and Canha at designated hitter.
5. Matt Vierling, 3B
- 2023 stats: .261/.329/.388, 10 homers, 21 doubles, 6 steals, 44 BB/112 K in 530 PA.
The Tigers got the third-worst offensive production in MLB at third base last season, with an overall .214 batting average, .623 OPS, and just 13 home runs. Vierling might not provide a lot more in the power department, but he’ll certainly spend more time on base.
Vierling was one of the most under-appreciated Tigers last season, and I think that’s because he’s a jack of all trades and a master of none.
Vierling can hit an occasional home run. He’s got 91st percentile sprint speed. He grades out as an elite base runner. His arm is strong and accurate. He doesn’t swing and miss. He has positional versatility.
None of his tools are loud, but when you put them all together, he’s a valuable player.
Vierling is probably more of a No. 8 hitter on a contending team, but I’m hoping the Tigers will bat him ahead of the much less productive hitter I’m resigned to place in the No. 6 hole .
If the Tigers give Vierling a shot to play somewhere every day, my guess is they’ll end up more or less pleased with the result. He’ll probably hit between .250 and .270 with 8-12 homers and excellent base running. He won’t strike out too often, which means he’ll drive in Torkelson and Carpenter at a decent rate.
And when Hinch wants to make some late-game pinch hitting decisions -- perhaps Andy Ibanez bats against a lefty or Akil Baddoo comes in to pinch run -- Vierling is a guy who can shift to any of the three outfield positions or second base.
Could the Tigers upgrade at third base? Absolutely. Maybe someone like Justyn-Henry Malloy will seize that job at some point this season. But Vierling is basically already a guaranteed upgrade over what the Tigers got at the position last year.
6. Javier Baez, SS
- 2023 stats: .222/.267/.325, 9 homers, 18 doubles, 12 steals, 24 BB/125 K in 547 PA.
*Sigh.* We all knew Baez was going to opt into the final four years of his contract, but it still stung when it became official.
Four more seasons of this guy swinging at balls in the dirt and botching routine plays at shortstop.
If it was up to me, I’d bat Baez ninth -- or not put him in the lineup at all. That’s not hyperbole. Baez has been that bad.
There were plenty of warning signs when Baez became a free agent two years ago, but the speed of his decline was even more dramatic than anyone could have expected.
Last season, he was the worst player in baseball at chasing pitches outside the zone -- swinging at an alarming 44% of them. His walk rate was 3rd percentile, his whiff rate 12th percentile.
When he did put the ball in play, it was with no authority: a hard-hit rate of 39.7% (42nd percentile) and an average exit velocity of 88 mph (23rd).
Other than steal 12 bases without getting caught, I can’t think of anything Javier Baez did well during the 2023 season.
Only two players made more errors (19) than Baez last season -- and that’s a year after he led the league by a wide margin with 26.
Why do I have him in the No. 6 slot? Because that’s the farthest I can see the Tigers dropping their highest-paid player. I fear he might start the season even higher.
7. Colt Keith, 2B
- 2023 Stats (with Double-A SeaWolves and Triple-A Mud Hens): 306/.380/.552, 27 homers, 38 doubles, 3 steals, 60 BB/121 K in 577 PA.
Let’s switch up the mood and talk about one of the most exciting players in the organization.
It sure looks like the team’s No. 2 prospect is going to take over as the starting second baseman this year after the Tigers signed Keith to a massive contract extension that could last through the 2032 season.
There’s nothing left for the 22-year-old to prove in the minor leagues after he racked up 68 extra-base hits alongside a .380 OBP across 126 games.
Keith was expected to be picked much higher in the shortened 2020 COVID draft, but the Tigers snagged him with their final pick in the fifth round. He’s done nothing but rake, slashing .300/.382/.512 across more than 1,000 minor-league plate appearances.
The Tigers got some production from Ibanez at second base last season, but a clear upgrade is needed, and Keith has tremendous upside as one of the top 25 prospects in the league.
He is not considered a fast runner or strong defender, but Keith can hit. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start the season down near the bottom of the order -- much like Hinch did to ease Torkelson and Greene into the big leagues -- but don’t count on him staying there.
8. Jake Rogers, C
- 2023 Stats: .221/.286/.444, 21 homers, 11 doubles, 1 steal, 28 BB/188 K in 365 PA.
Rogers finally got a chance to be the Tigers’ No. 1 catcher after Eric Haase struggled for the first half of last season, and you know what? It wasn’t all that bad.
Rogers is going to strike out a lot. He’s going to post a low OBP. But he also has legitimate 30-homer power and some key defensive strengths.
Last season, Rogers ranked in the 90th percentile among catchers in blocks and 80th percentile in framing. He was about average in terms of catching attempted base stealers, but overall, he graded out as an excellent defensive catcher.
On offense, it felt like Rogers identified his strength and leaned into it. He is a power hitter who can run into a few home runs, so that’s what he’s going to do.
Rogers struck out in one-third of his at-bats and came up empty on about one-third of his swings -- most of them in the zone. Is there room for improvement in those areas? Sure, but don’t ever expect Rogers to hit better than, say, .230.
But the power is legitimate when Rogers does make contact -- 68th percentile or better in each of expected slugging, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and sweet spot percentage.
In other words, Rogers sells out so that when he makes contact, that contact does damage. That’s a strategy that the Tigers will probably take from a catcher who’s so strong behind the dish.
This will be the first time Rogers comes into a season as the primary catcher, so we’ll see how he handles that job.
9. Parker Meadows, CF
- 2023 stats: .232/.331/.368, 3 homers, 4 doubles, 8 steals, 17 BB/37 K in 145 PA.
People are going to look at that batting average and think Parker Meadows struggled in his first taste of MLB action. But if what we saw in his first 37 games is what he remains for his entire big-league career, sign me up.
Meadows was just 23 years old when the Tigers called him up for his debut, a fact that might surprise fans who have been hearing about him since way back in 2018. But he was just 18 years old at the time of the draft.
When he reached the majors, the Tigers just wanted Meadows to do what he does best: run and play defense. But he did so much more.
Meadows walked at an 11.7% clip, which is why his OBP finished 99 points higher than his batting average. If he had ended up more in line with his .251 expected batting average, Meadows would have posted a .350 OBP as a 23-year-old rookie.
He showed a refined ability to stay in the strike zone and make contact when he did swing the bat. His 25.5% strikeout rate was more a product of being a bit passive at the plate, but that’s a tradeoff the Tigers will likely take for a higher OBP.
Meadows doesn’t necessarily lack power, either. He hit 20 home runs in the minor leagues in 2022 and 22 total between Triple-A and the majors last season. If anything, with his 6-foot-5 frame and quick swing, Meadows could unlock even more power.
But let’s say Meadows doesn’t progress in these promising offensive areas. He’s still going to be a valuable player in the everyday lineup.
Meadows graded out as expected defensively, with excellent range and a strong, accurate throwing arm. His 90th percentile speed led to eight stolen bases in nine attempts at the MLB level.
He might be raw and unproven, but Meadows has the tools to be a really valuable all-around player for the Tigers.
Other options
I’m pretty confident that these will be the starting nine for Opening Day as long as there are no injuries or surprises in spring training. But we all know Hinch likes to mix in his bench guys on a regular basis.
Zach McKinstry will certainly have a significant role. He spent time at all three outfield spots, third base, shortstop, and second base last season. After a hot start, he experienced a severe drop-off offensively, but he has some doubles power and can draw a walk.
I still don’t want to give up on Baddoo. Remember, he hadn’t played a game above Single-A when the Tigers took him north from spring training in 2021, and both times they’ve sent him down to Triple-A the past two seasons, he’s been dominant.
Baddoo has an 11.8% walk rate and 91st percentile sprint speed. He also stole 14 bases in 17 attempts last season in a reserve role. He can be incredibly frustrating when he’s not seeing the ball well, but the strikeout numbers took a big step forward last season, and he was only turning 25.
Ibanez had a solid year for the Tigers in 2023, posting a .744 OPS with 11 homers and 23 doubles. He’s a versatile defender, but I feel much better about having him in a utility role alongside McKinstry than playing as an everyday starter.
It looks like Carson Kelly will stick around as the backup catcher. He didn’t hit at all after joining the Tigers late in 2023, but they liked him enough to give up on Haase and then picked up his $3.5 million option.
Another player I want to expand on is Malloy, who will turn 24 on Feb. 19. The Tigers acquired him from the Braves in the Joe Jimenez trade, and my gosh, is his offensive profile exciting.
Malloy played all of 2023 with the Triple-A Mud Hens, making 611 plate appearances in 135 games. He finished with 23 home runs and 25 doubles while posting a .277 average and .417 OBP.
That’s right: A .417 on-base percentage. He walked 110 times.
This wasn’t a fluke, either. Malloy owns a career .410 OBP in the minors after putting up a .438 mark in college. He walked 16 times in 20 Arizona Fall League games in 2022.
Wherever Malloy goes, he gets on base.
The absolute best-case scenario for the Tigers is that Malloy stays afloat enough defensively that he earns a spot on the MLB roster. Then we could even see him in the battle for the leadoff spot. But since the Tigers have reasonable options at second and third base to begin the season, Malloy might face an uphill battle.
