DETROIT – The rebuilding phase for the Detroit Tigers is over, and it’s time for this franchise to get back into playoff contention. That begins now, with spring training.
It doesn’t take a lot to win the AL Central. Last year, the Twins ran away with it despite winning just 87 games. The Tigers were in second place at 78-84.
Do the additions of Mark Canha, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda (from those very same Twins), and perhaps Colt Keith make up that difference?
Pitchers and catchers report to Lakeland on Wednesday, so we’re about to start learning more about this 2024 team.
Here are the questions I want answered before Opening Day:
Is Colt Keith ready?
Remember when Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson were the talk of Tigers spring training two years ago? Now it’s Keith’s turn.
Keith finished last season with 27 homers and 38 doubles across 126 games -- 59 with Double-A Erie and 67 with Triple-A Toledo. He hit .306 with a .380 OBP thanks to 155 hits and 60 walks, compared to just 121 strikeouts.
The top-20 prospect received a massive contract extension before making his MLB debut -- an unprecedented move for the Tigers organization. That means there’s no reason to hold him back for service time reasons. If Keith keeps his head above water in spring training, he’ll be the starting second baseman.
Where does he hit in the lineup?
Let’s say Keith does make the Opening Day roster. We know he’ll start at second base, but where will he hit?
Managers often like to ease rookies into the league by batting them lower in the order. In my pre-spring lineup prediction, I had Keith batting seventh, but I would love to see the Tigers move him up to sixth, ahead of Javier Baez.
We know Baez is bad, but Keith might not be -- so why wait? If he makes the team, he might as well get more meaningful at-bats.
What does Casey Mize’s role look like?
We’ve definitely entered the post-hype era for Mize. The former No. 1 overall pick was a bit underwhelming during his first taste of MLB action, and now he’s missed almost two full seasons due to injury.
But Mize is still only 26 years old, and he was the top pitching prospect in baseball at one time. So it’s not like the Tigers have given up hope.
What does Mize’s role look like in the first few months of the season? Will the Tigers use him as a traditional starter? Will he be paired with a piggyback partner? He certainly isn’t going to reach his 2021 mark of 150 innings.
How much leash for Joey Wentz?
One of the prime candidates to partner with Mize early in the season is Wentz, but he’s going to need to prove himself in the spring.
Somehow, despite posting a 6.90 ERA and 1.68 ERA, Wentz was allowed to pitch 105.2 innings last season -- the second most on the Tigers, behind only Eduardo Rodriguez.
Wentz is left-handed, so he would be a natural fit to take over for Mize after three or four innings. Together, they would essentially make up one spot in the starting rotation.
But he was so bad last season that the handedness advantage isn’t enough.
Wentz is out of minor-league options, so if he doesn’t make the roster, he might get claimed by another team. How much more leeway are the Tigers willing to give him to avoid that?
Who leads off?
The Tigers don’t have a slam-dunk choice for their leadoff spot, but they have a handful of options.
Parker Meadows played five games in the leadoff spot as a rookie and posted a .333 OBP and .833 OPS. Greene has also spent some time atop the lineup in his young career.
But my choice is Canha, the on-base machine. He’s reasonably fast, too. Yes, he’s in his mid-30s, but I think he’s the best option.
Parker Meadows in center field?
There’s no question Meadows is the best defensive outfielder on the roster, but are the Tigers ready to take the plunge and make him the everyday starter in center?
Last offseason, the Tigers specifically adjusted the fences at Comerica Park so players like Greene could rob more home runs. But between Greene’s recent injury woes and Meadows’ defensive superiority, I think the Tigers will make the swap.
Meadows just has to hit well enough to justify being in the lineup for 140+ games.
Will Justyn-Henry Malloy make a push?
All eyes will be on Greene, Torkelson, Keith, and Meadows heading into the spring, but Malloy’s offensive profile is just as exciting as the rest.
Malloy spent all of last season in Triple-A and drew 110 walks in 135 games. One-hundred and ten! The result was a .417 OBP that’s right on par with his career .410 rate across 1,349 minor-league plate appearances.
The Tigers need players who can get on base. They’ve started to build a decent power base in the heart of the order with Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter, but Malloy could be a really nice addition.
If JHM makes team, who’s the odd man out?
In my pre-spring lineup prediction, I placed Carpenter at designated hitter, Canha in left field, Greene in right field, and Vierling at third base.
If Malloy forces the Tigers’ hand in spring training, he could emerge as a starter in either corner outfield spot or at designated hitter.
If he’s a DH, Carpenter would probably take over right field, while Greene moves to left. If Malloy is an outfielder, he would bump Canha to third base and force Matt Vierling into a utility or platoon role.
Is Kerry Carpenter a DH now?
Speaking of Carpenter, are Tigers fans resigned to him being a defensive liability? Because I’m not.
Last season, his first full year of MLB action, Carpenter graded out as about 2 runs below average defensively. That’s obviously not what the Tigers are looking for, but it’s not disastrous, either.
Carpenter has 85th percentile arm strength and an above-average overall arm value. He’s also in the 70th percentile in terms of sprint speed.
Could he develop into an average right fielder with an above-average arm? I think it’s within the range of possibilities, but we’ll never know if he’s stuck at DH.
What did Tigers see in Jack Flaherty?
These short-term starting pitcher signings by the Tigers are always worth monitoring. Chris Fetter has made the most of under-the-radar moves, and Flaherty could be the latest example.
You have to go back to 2019 to find the last time Flaherty was a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, but you don’t have to go back that far to find encouraging signs.
He’s still someone who limits hard contact, and he has a decent ground ball rate. If he can cut back on the walks and miss a few more bats, the Tigers will be happy with the results.
Vierling, Canha, or platoon at third?
Vierling wants a chance to prove he’s an everyday player, and he’s probably going into spring training in pole position at third base.
At his best, Vierling is going to be the kind of player who goes largely unnoticed on a day-to-day basis, but by the end of the year, you look at his numbers and realize he was pretty solid.
But what if Malloy looks like more than that? Is there a scenario where Greene, Malloy, Canha, and Carpenter all land starting jobs and Meadows misses out? I just don’t see it. Vierling would probably be moved to a utility role.
Zach McKinstry played 52 games at third last season and hit nine home runs off of right-handed pitchers. Would that be enough to earn him a platoon role with Vierling, who was actually slightly better against righties himself?
Can Javier Baez offer anything?
There will be people who try to generate excitement for Baez this spring. That’s like how we heard about Miguel Cabrera getting back to his old self year after year.
It’s pretty clear the Tigers will regret the Baez deal for the next four years. The question is whether he can offer them anything at all.
A move to second base probably would have helped with Baez’s league-leading error problem. But the Tigers don’t have anyone else to play shortstop. Can he at least hit 15-20 homers alongside what will likely be a sub-.300 OBP?
Is second-half Torkelson the real Torkelson?
Anyone who thinks the Tigers can compete for a playoff spot must think second-half Torkelson can translate to full-season Torkelson.
Maybe that’s true: He is a former No. 1 overall and top prospect after all. I happen to believe Torkelson is in store for a big year because this is what he did at every stop in the minor leagues: struggle, adjust, and mash.
But a slow start from the team’s only bonafide power hitter would be devastating for the offense.
Will Matt Manning fall out of the rotation?
I’m assuming Manning will begin the season as the No. 4 starter behind Tarik Skubal, Maeda, and Flaherty. But his hold on that spot is tenuous.
We don’t really know what Manning is capable of because we haven’t seen him last even 100 innings in an MLB season. But in small sample sizes, the metrics haven’t been pretty.
If Mize is ready to go, Wentz proves himself capable of handling the piggyback role, and Reese Olson pitches well in the spring, could it be Manning who finds himself in a Mud Hens uniform?
What’s next for Sawyer Gipson-Long?
We only saw 20 MLB innings from the unheralded prospect last season, but boy, were they special. Gipson-Long overpowered hitters, induced weak contact, and lasted five frames every time out.
Is there any way Gipson-Long can force his way onto the MLB roster? The Tigers certainly don’t want to limit his upside by moving him to the bullpen, and that probably means he’s heading back to Toledo.
That might not be the worst thing, though. Gipson-Long was pretty bad from a run prevention perspective in Triple-A last season, allowing 21 earned runs in 34.2 innings. He struck out 50 batters, but the Tigers can probably justify starting him in the minors due to a crowded rotation.
Can Alex Lange find the strike zone?
It’s amazing how effective Lange was as a closer last season, considering he literally led MLB in walk rate.
Lange was an elite bat misser and induced a ton of weak contact on the ground, but he can’t continue to walk 15.6% of the batters he faces. That’s always going to make him susceptible to disastrous outings, and that’s a terrible quality for a closer.
If Lange can get back to around a 10% walk rate (still bad), he’ll be a force.
Who fills in final bullpen slot?
The Tigers are probably going to start the season with an eight-man bullpen, counting whoever piggybacks with Mize. Lange, Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, Andrew Chafin, Shelby Miller, and Beau Brieske seem like locks, but who gets the last spot?
My early money’s on Will Vest, because he was so steady last season after a very solid 2022. But Alex Faedo has some very interesting upside as a reliever, and the Tigers didn’t add Kolton Ingram for no reason. Brendan White could also enter the mix with his swing-and-miss fastball-slider combo.
