DETROIT – Can the Detroit Tigers really win the division and get back to the playoffs this season? Let’s take an honest look at their chances against the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.
Ground to make up
The Tigers were pretty much out of the race by mid-June last year, after a nine-game losing streak dropped them 11 games below .500.
But considering how bad that stretch was -- the Tigers actually lost 13 of 15 over the span of about three weeks -- the AL Central race wasn’t absurdly out of reach.
The Twins cruised to their division title and finished with a comfortable nine-game lead by the end of the regular season. But there are signs that the Tigers were closer than they appeared.
Let’s start with the head-to-head meetings. The Tigers went 8-5 against the Twins last season, and when you combine that with winning records against each of the Guardians (9-4), White Sox (8-5), and Royals (10-3), Detroit actually dominated their Central foes.
The Tigers were actually six games better than the Twins within the division. The reason for the big standings gap? Detroit played outrageously bad baseball against the AL East, going 7-25. That’s an outlier-type record that isn’t likely to happen again.
So as we break down the changes the Tigers and Twins made this offseason, remember that in order to win the AL Central, the Tigers have to make up nine games’ worth of ground.
2-team race?
The Tigers finished in second place last season, but Cleveland was just two games behind. Can we really say this is a two-team race in 2024?
I have a rule at the start of every MLB season: Never count out Cleveland. Whenever you think the Guardians are going to rebuild for a few years, they find some young starting pitchers to keep them in the race. And, oh look: Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams all debuted last year. What a surprise.
But for the sake of this article, we’re going to stick to the Tigers and Twins. Cleveland didn’t make any win-now moves this offseason, instead letting Cal Quantrill and Lucas Giolito walk. Terry Francona retired and it’s unclear if Shane Bieber will be on the roster for the full season.
Detroit finished 17 games ahead of the White Sox and 22 games ahead of the Royals, so unless one of those teams signs Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery, they aren’t part of this race.
Twins offseason changes
The Twins have had a busy offseason, but it’s been more a flurry of smaller moves than big splashes.
Last season, the strength of the Twins was a starting rotation featuring Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, and Kenta Maeda. Ober went through some bumps in the road and Maeda only pitched 104 innings due to injury, but for the most part, those were the five on the mound for Minnesota.
That rotation will have a very different look in 2024. Gray signed a big free agent deal with the Cardinals and Maeda landed with the Tigers. Ryan, Lopez, and Ober still make up a strong trio at the top, but the other two spots are less certain.
Newly acquired Anthony DeSclafani is likely to take one of those spots after being traded from the Giants to the Mariners to the Twins in January. DeSclafani was excellent for San Francisco in 2021, but he’s had a couple of injury-shortened seasons since then, and he wasn’t effective when he was on the mound.
Chris Paddack made his return from injury late last season as a reliever and looked like his old electric self. Will the Twins try him out as a starter or turn to someone like Louie Varland, who has pitched well in the minors?
Either way, it seems like two-fifths of the Twins’ rotation will take a step back from Gray and Maeda. On the other hand, the underlying numbers suggest there could be another gear for both Lopez and Ryan.
On offense, the major addition for the Twins this offseason was 37-year-old Carlos Santana, who continues to be a very solid MLB hitter. Much like the Tigers, Minnesota is counting on improvement from within the organization.
Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis could be two of the better hitters in this lineup, and they only played a combined 98 games in 2023. Byron Buxton turned 30 this offseason, but he’s still very dangerous when he’s on the field.
Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their first extended looks at MLB pitching and thrived -- Wallner hitting 14 homers in a half-season and Julien posting a .381 OBP.
Carlos Correa and Max Kepler remain stabilizing forces in the middle of that lineup. There’s a lot of potential in this offense.
Tigers fans won’t miss Jorge Polanco, who was sent to Seattle in the DeSclafani deal. Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor weren’t re-signed after hitting 21 homers apiece for the Twins last season. Donovan Solano was solid in 2023, but there’s no room for him in the Twins lineup with the kids taking over.
The major changes to the Minnesota bullpen: Emilio Pagan is out while Josh Staumont and Steven Okert have joined.
Pagan was a stud setup man for the Twins in 2023, posting a 2.99 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 69.1 innings. Staumont was great for the Royals in 2021 before back-to-back disappointing seasons, while Okert provides elite left-handed strikeouts. Overall, I’d say these moves are a wash.
Twins offseason takeaways
If you look at the Twins’ moves without context, you’d probably think they got a lot worse this offseason. No Gray and Maeda in the rotation. No Polanco, Gallo, or Taylor in the everyday lineup. No Pagan in the late innings.
But Minnesota’s improvement isn’t going to come from outside the organization. They have an entire lineup of players primed to mature in 2024.
Lewis, Julien, and Wallner look like they could develop into feared top-of-the-order hitters. And we haven’t seen the best from Alex Kirilloff or Miranda, either.
If those players make improvements and Buxton can stay healthy, the Twins’ lineup is going to be much better in 2024.
Overall, I’d say stock way up for the Twins offense and stock slightly down for the pitching staff.
Tigers offseason changes
There are quite a few parallels between the Twins’ and Tigers’ offseasons. The Tigers made a handful of under-the-radar additions and let some of their older players depart to clear up space for younger options.
The only real loss for the Tigers was Eduardo Rodriguez, who gave them 152.2 rock solid innings last year. He was the ace of the staff for most of the 2023 season, and his stability will be missed.
But that doesn’t mean the Tigers are going to be worse on the mound.
Perhaps the most important X-factor for the Tigers this season is the health of Tarik Skubal. If Skubal can make 30 starts, he could be the best pitcher in the game. That would give the Tigers a huge bump over what they had last year.
The additions of Maeda and Jack Flaherty should also help. Last year, the Tigers were forced to plug holes in the rotation with the likes of Joey Wentz, Matt Boyd, and Alex Faedo. None of them were effective, and both Maeda and Flaherty have more upside.
Casey Mize is a big question mark coming off two lost years, but he was moderately effective in 2021 and certainly has the pedigree to be much better than last year’s back-end options.
I don’t think anybody is worried about the departures of Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, Tyler Alexander, Jose Cisnero, Miguel Cabrera, Austin Meadows, or Tyler Nevin. None of those players made a positive impact on the Tigers last season.
On offense, the Tigers pounced on an early opportunity to add veteran on-base specialist Mark Canha in a trade with the Brewers. Otherwise, they’re counting on internal improvements to bolster the offense.
Star prospect Colt Keith is expected to take over at second base, and Riley Greene begins the season with a clean bill of health. The Tigers are also hoping the late power surge from Spencer Torkelson can hold up over the course of a full season.
Can Kerry Carpenter repeat what he gave the Tigers in 2023? Can Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling capitalize on larger roles?
The bullpen returns all of its major (positive) contributors: Alex Lange, Jason Foley, and Tyler Holton. The Tigers also brought back Andrew Chafin and added Shelby Miller in free agency. Beau Brieske looked like he might be a multi-inning weapon, too.
Tigers offseason takeaways
The starting staff hinges almost entirely on Skubal. If he’s healthy, he gives the Tigers a bonafide ace and allows the likes of Maeda, Flaherty, and Mize to pitch in more appropriate rotation slots. Reese Olson and Sawyer Gipson-Long are also waiting in the weeds.
Canha isn’t a flashy addition, but it’s another subtle sign of the Tigers’ focus on players who control the strike zone. He’s a veteran presence who should make a positive impact on other potential high-OBP players like Keith, Greene, Meadows, and Torkelson.
There’s no question the Tigers should be better both on the mound and at the plate. But is it enough of an improvement to make up nine games in the standings?
My thoughts on the race
Hope always springs eternal at this time of the year. It’s one of the many beautiful things about baseball. The moves Scott Harris has made since taking over in Detroit make sense to me, and it gives me new confidence about the direction of this franchise.
Showing faith in a top prospect like Keith and acting on that faith with a contract is a winning move. Acquiring Canha -- a veteran who’s spent his entire career doing exactly what you want your young hitters to learn -- is a winning move.
I believe Skubal is a superstar. The minor-league track record of Torkelson suggests last year’s power surge shouldn’t have been a surprise. Greene looked like a five-tool stud before going down with another freak injury.
It feels like 86-88 wins will be enough to win the AL Central this season, and I think the Tigers have a strong enough roster to flirt with that range in a weak division.
Let’s dream for a moment that everyone on both teams stays healthy. It won’t happen, but it’s impossible to predict injuries, so why try?
Both teams have an ace and mostly solid pitchers to fill out the rest of their rotations. I think Lopez and Ryan are a better 1-2 combination than what the Tigers have, but the Twins might be weaker in the 4-5 range.
Both bullpens are anchored by overpowering closers and reliable setup men. Jhoan Duran is the best reliever on either team, but give me the combination of Lange, Foley, and Holton overall.
I feel pretty good about the Tigers’ outfield, whether it’s Canha, Vierling, Carpenter, or Justyn-Henry Malloy joining Greene and Parker Meadows on an everyday basis. The right side of the infield is also promising, with Torkelson and Keith.
Jake Rogers might never hit .250. Heck, he might not even hit .230. But he’s an excellent defensive catcher and has legitimate MLB power. I don’t think the Tigers are at a major disadvantage if the Twins trot out the combination of Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vazquez.
But here’s where the good feelings come to a screeching halt. The left side of the infield gives a huge edge to the Twins.
Correa had a down year in 2023, but he was a 12.7 WAR player across the two prior seasons. Chances are he’s going to be one of the top 10-12 shortstops in the big leagues this year.
The Tigers, meanwhile, do not have that.
We don’t need to dive into my thoughts on Javier Baez. They’re no secret. Long story short: Barring a complete 180 in the underlying metrics, Baez is not going to be a positive for the Tigers this season. There is literally nothing to warrant optimism.
And whoever the Tigers have at third base won’t be nearly as good as Lewis.
So going into this season, I’m giving a slight edge to the Twins, even though I do think the Tigers have made up some ground with their offseason additions.
But another great thing about baseball is that anything can happen on any given day. What matters is the Tigers have built a roster that gives them a fighting chance.
Tigers fans are desperately hoping this isn’t a repeat of 2022, when the excitement of a surprisingly strong 2021 campaign gave way to immediate disappointment. On paper, these Tigers are decent, and in the AL Central, decent is enough to keep you in the race.
