DETROIT – When the Detroit Tigers finally start playing spring training games later this month, Parker Meadows will not be the headliner.
Fans want to see Colt Keith, the top prospect who got a huge extension before making his MLB debut. They want to see a healthy Riley Greene playing alongside his buddy Spencer Torkelson, fresh off the first 30-homer season for a Tiger since 2016. They want to see what Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning and Casey Mize can do over full, healthy seasons.
I mean, can you blame them? There are so many young players and exciting battles to watch this spring. But don’t let those other storylines overshadow what could happen in center field.
READ: How all 59 players at spring training ended up with the Detroit Tigers
You might be thinking, “How can anyone forget about Meadows after what he did last season?” To that I say, should you trust a 37-game cameo over a 491-game minor-league sample size? There was plenty of reason to question Meadows, but that shouldn’t take away from the excitement he generates this spring.
Rough start to minor-league career
When the Tigers drafted Meadows more than five years ago, most people only knew him as the kid brother of Austin Meadows -- at the time a highly regarded prospect who was just 15 games into his MLB career. During those first 15 games, the elder Meadows hit five homers with a .392 average and 1.203 OPS.
Oh yeah, the Meadows name was scorching hot in June 2018.
But it would be an understatement to say the hype surrounding Parker fizzled over the next few years. He hit .221 with a .607 OPS and only seven homers in his first full season at Single-A and then was forced to miss an entire year of game action due to the COVID pandemic.
When he returned to the diamond, Meadows managed just a .210 average, .622 OPS, and eight homers in High-A West Michigan. He struck out 99 times in 94 games and got caught stealing on eight of his 17 attempts.
His speed, power, and plate discipline weren’t manifesting, and as a result, Meadows plummeted from the No. 10 prospect in the Tigers’ organization to No. 20.
“The pandemic-related cancellation of the 2020 minor league season denied Meadows a chance to apply lessons learned from a rough introduction to A-ball in 2019,” his prospect profile read on MLB Pipeline. “He returned to West Michigan, now in High-A, in 2021, only to battle similar struggles.”
Meadows’ comparison on that profile? Derek Hill. That’s right, the former first-round pick who took six years to get to Detroit and then managed just a .630 OPS and 0.0 WAR in 95 games with the Tigers.
When you think about that comparison, it’s a lot easier to remember why nobody was overly enthused about Parker Meadows.
Recent improvements
The turning point came in late April of 2022. Meadows started the season back in West Michigan and wasn’t necessarily earning himself a promotion with a 14-for-61 start. But he did hit four homers and four doubles, so the Tigers took the opportunity to bump him up to Double-A Erie.
Over the next 113 games, Meadows revived his prospect status, batting .275 with 15 homers, 21 doubles, six triples, and 17 stolen bases in 19 attempts. He finished that Double-A season with a .346 OBP and 20 homers -- definitive progress.
And remember, he was still only 22 years old.
Last year, Meadows started the season with Triple-A Toledo and needed a little time to adjust. Through the first 44 games, he slashed just .229/.316/400 with 45 strikeouts and five homers. But from May 24 up until his MLB promotion in August, Meadows hit .275 with a .352 OBP and 14 homers in 70 games.
The final stat line in Triple-A is pretty impressive when taken in the context of a 23-year-old playing at that level for the first time: .256/.337/.474 with 19 homers, 27 doubles, seven triples, and 19 steals in 21 tries.
But the best part is that most of that production carried over immediately to the MLB level. Meadows hit three homers, four doubles, and two triples in 37 games while stealing eight bags in nine attempts. That translates roughly to a 150-game pace of 16 doubles, eight triples, 12 homers, and 32 steals alongside a .331 OBP.
Parker Meadows’ potential
Those aren’t exactly Curtis Granderson-like numbers, but I think every Tigers fan would gladly take a center fielder who’s even mentioned in the same sentence as the Grandy Man.
And I don’t think that type of season is unrealistic for the 24-year-old if he plays every day for the Tigers.
Even way back when the Tigers drafted Meadows as an 18-year-old, the scouting report was more or less the same: Power, speed, defense -- but how much will he hit?
Well, if you look past his first professional season (when he was 19 years old) and the year immediately following the pandemic, that’s exactly what the Tigers have gotten from Meadows.
It was only a 37-game audition, but Meadows offered a taste of his arsenal at the MLB level. His sprint speed was 90th percentile. His defense was elite. He walked at an 11.7% clip and finished with a .331 OBP despite some bad batted ball luck.
Here’s the exciting thing about Meadows: No matter what happens, he has two bankable skills that are essentially slump-proof. He will likely be one of the premier defensive outfielders in baseball next year as a rookie, and he’ll change games with his base running.
Meadows didn’t technically qualify for percentile rankings last season because he only played one-quarter of a season. But if he had, he would have been among the top 25% most productive base runners in the league. He stole eight bases and was caught just once -- all while trying to acclimate to the big leagues.
The swing has some holes, no doubt. Meadows struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats at the MLB level and didn’t impact the ball like someone who could reach 20 homers.
But he also posted an excellent chase rate of just 23%. His 24% whiff rate was also above-average, and again, he walked in 11.7% of his plate appearances. What does this all mean? Meadows clearly wasn’t overmatched against MLB pitching -- if anything, he seemed comfortable.
Meadows doesn’t necessarily have to improve on his offensive game to be an incredibly valuable player for the Tigers. He could post an OPS around .700 this season and still likely finish north of 3.0 WAR because he’s such a difference-maker in other areas.
When Meadows is in center field, he’s a weapon. On base, he’s a constant threat. And when he makes contact at the plate, he does damage.
Potential weaknesses
For all the talent in his game, Meadows wouldn’t be the first toolsy player to bust in the big leagues. We see it every single season.
But none of his potential weaknesses look fatal.
As a young left-handed hitter, Meadows could certainly find himself in some sort of center field platoon with Matt Vierling or Andy Ibanez. But the minor-league track record doesn’t necessarily suggest that’s a concern.
Take a look at the splits for each of Meadows’ professional seasons (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage):
- 2018 (22 games at Rookie Ball and six games at Low-A):
- vs. right-handers: .260/.345/.429 -- .773 OPS.
- vs. left-handers: .434/.526/.688 -- 1.214 OPS.
- 2019 (126 games at Single-A):
- vs. right-handers: .216/.294/.308 -- .602 OPS.
- vs. left-handers: .239/.303/.321 -- .624 OPS.
- 2021 (three games at Single-A and 94 games at High-A):
- vs. right-handers: .191/.270/.322 -- .592 OPS.
- vs. left-handers: .277/.361/.361 -- .722 OPS.
- 2022 (14 games at High-A and 113 games at Double-A):
- vs. right-handers: .290/.376/.512 -- .888 OPS.
- vs. left-handers: .196/.225/.336 -- .562 OPS.
- 2023 (113 games at Triple-A and 37 games in MLB):
- vs. right-handers: .251/.337/.451 -- .787 OPS.
- vs. left-handers: .257/.337/.471 -- .809 OPS.
Other than the 2022 season, Meadows’ numbers have routinely been better against left-handed pitching.
For most of his minor-league career, Meadows posted much higher OBPs against lefties than righties, but he had far less home run power. Through the end of 2022, 35 of his 39 career homers had come against righties, yet much higher batting averages against lefties allowed him to maintain comparable (and sometimes superior) slugging numbers in same-handed matchups.
Last year, the story was largely the same at the MLB level. Meadows hit .273 with a .414 OBP and .732 OPS against lefties, compared to a .233 average, .319 OBP, and .707 OPS against righties. But all three of his home runs and eight of his nine extra-base hits came against righties.
Sure, there’s a chance MLB left-handers exploit some weaknesses that render Meadows helpless, but for now, we can only project based on what we’ve seen. And Meadows has a fairly well-established track record (2,103 plate appearances) of finding ways to succeed against righties and lefties, even though the production takes on different forms.
Strikeouts could be another risk factor in the profile, but again, there are signs that Meadows has matured in that category.
For his entire minor-league career, Meadows owns a 22.7% strikeout rate -- in other words, he has struck out in 22.7% of his career plate appearances. That would be right around league average if it translated to MLB.
Meadows struck out in 25.5% of his plate appearances at the MLB level, but the fact that he wasn’t chasing pitches or swinging and missing very often suggests he can improve on that overall strikeout rate. Even if he doesn’t, that percentage isn’t crippling.
For reference, I don’t think Tigers fans would say Torkelson has a “strikeout problem,” and his K% was almost identical to Meadows’ at the MLB level last season.
Final thoughts
Prospects come and go with every season, and there’s certainly a chance Meadows doesn’t live up to the hype.
But he’s such an exciting player because what we saw last year is much closer to his floor than his ceiling. At worst, Meadows is a three-tool player who makes the pitching staff much better and wreaks havoc on the base paths. At best, he could be legitimately special.
Keep a close eye on Meadows this spring. If the Tigers face a tough lefty like Carlos Rodon or Framber Valdez, does he hold his own? Can he maintain a high walk rate while keeping the strikeouts somewhat in check?
Meadows had an 0-for-24 stretch across seven starts last September, but followed it up by going 16-for-48 with a .949 OPS over the next 13. This is a player who will need some time to acclimate to a full season of MLB action, but the Tigers have every incentive to wait and see how it plays out.
No, I don’t expect Parker Meadows to turn into Curtis Granderson.
But I think it’s a better comparison than Derek Hill.
